rayok Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Yen looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 John Law II, Bernanke, Fukui, all have proved to be bigger than the markets. Congratulations. Yes but they have not proved to be bigger than the economy (the real economy). And it will have the last word, in its own way. Probably a million man march of jobless on DC. My take is that if number of jobless people goes more and more up there will be revolution. These days jobless are only seen (more or less) in the old fornicateed up areas of the inner cities. But when the jobless syndrome resches white suburbian american then the shit will be cooking. In germany we have around 4.5 million jobless people, thats only the offcial number. When it will be 10 million then the society will implode. The job market of these days is so much in trouble like never before. The unskilled people cant get no jobs no mo, because there is no need for them, mostly thru roboterization and so on. But also there is huge problems for the middle class. It is like a mantra of the middle class that you must only learn, be good in school, go to university and then you will have a good job. But thats no mo guaranteed, 30+ years ago it was. Every time in history when the middle class was in fear to become lower class there was trouble. The whole thing is based on class appreciation: Grandpa was a farmer, daddy worked as a normal clerk in the bank and son goes to college and makes his MBA. After he finished college he gets a good well paid job. But what does the child of the son in the future? This chain is broken. Maybe society and people will adjust to the fact that the following generation doesnt get better and higher paid job then the generation before, but i doubt this will go on without huge trouble for the western world. FxFox: this is why the peasants left the corrupted Chiang Kai-Shek(supported by US in 50's) and embraced communism overnight... Chiang was starving his army despite the US support and he also forced many men from countryside to join his stupid useless fight but he failed to give the people hope... ironically, the lack of spreading of wealth in China now plus the absolute lack of values in the ciites of China, (It's all about the money, cheat, lie, steal, prostitute yourself,etc..) will cause a 2nd revolution in China sometime this century.. peasansts are poorer than ever, cost of living UP, the owner class owning factories get richer and richer while refusing to give better wages or conditions to slaves.. we'll get a revolution also in the USA, whether the super rich wanna believe it or not... A recent issue of Vanity Fair quoted an European aristocrat who thought the society in Palm Beach was horribly shallow and disgusting.. this aristocrat said whenever the rich are that out of touch with reality for working folks... that's the ripe soil for social revolutions... guess the Europeans have seen many more revolutions than the 200 yr old baby USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 As long as we dont' follow a Prechter Deflation Cycle, the XAU is likely tracing out a head and shoulders bottom, similar to the mid-1997 pattern. Way too much selling volume hit the tape today in the XAU, meaning another extended decline is underway. The recent low of 94 is the left shoulder. Coming up is the head, which will be in the 87 - 88 area after the current downleg is completed. This spring, we'll get a right shoulder somewhere. Then after a small retracement, a long run to the 1996 highs of 150 sometime in 2005. I am out of all my trading positions until we reach the 87 - 88 area. Gold itself might trade all the way down to $380. FeedFool can probably draw a wedge, showing a 3 wave decline off the highs, bottoming somewhere below 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Residents of Phoenix, Arizona cower in fearful trepidation as the unmistakable signs of the advent of Mr TwoScrewsLoose make themselves most conspicuously manifest via his ever-attendant (ha)haBOOB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Yen looks fine to me. Your chart ended on January 30. Since then, the Yen has fallen off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Yen looks fine to me. Your chart ended on January 30. Since then, the Yen has fallen off a cliff. A pull back to the weekly up trend line, no cliff dive yet. Some of us don't time our trades with a stop watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rott Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 Thought this chart was good. Fill the breakout gap and test the 50 dma. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XJY,uu[w,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G Some more charts and a bit of yen / dollar news http://www.forexnews.com/ai/default.asp?f=A20040220A.mgn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 20, 2004 Report Share Posted February 20, 2004 US$ may rally to low .90s pullbacka and get weak and fail to go to another high.. may take some time to build strength in miners to go up again... i'm looking at 200MA line for all miners... XAU failed to rally at a key time this Feb 2004... tech indicators favoured a move but price failure so we are likely to suffer a downdraft in miners... The Dollar Devaluation Rally has been put on hold. And POG will continue to suffer in this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2004 Report Share Posted February 21, 2004 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3Martinis Posted February 21, 2004 Report Share Posted February 21, 2004 FxFox: this is why the peasants left the corrupted Chiang Kai-Shek(supported by US in 50's) and embraced communism overnight... Chiang was starving his army despite the US support and he also forced many men from countryside to join his stupid useless fight but he failed to give the people hope... ironically, the lack of spreading of wealth in China now plus the absolute lack of values in the ciites of China, (It's all about the money, cheat, lie, steal, prostitute yourself,etc..) will cause a 2nd revolution in China sometime this century.. peasansts are poorer than ever, cost of living UP, the owner class owning factories get richer and richer while refusing to give better wages or conditions to slaves.. we'll get a revolution also in the USA, whether the super rich wanna believe it or not... A recent issue of Vanity Fair quoted an European aristocrat who thought the society in Palm Beach was horribly shallow and disgusting.. this aristocrat said whenever the rich are that out of touch with reality for working folks... that's the ripe soil for social revolutions... guess the Europeans have seen many more revolutions than the 200 yr old baby USA Chinese furor over fortune and fame The first Forbes China Celebrity List has hit the stands, ranking basketball star Yao Ming as No 1. But in this former proletarian, "classless" society, new evidence of ostentatious wealth and individual fame is arousing anger among the masses and workers once ordered to serve the people - not themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rott Posted February 21, 2004 Report Share Posted February 21, 2004 Thought this chart was good. Fill the breakout gap and test the 50 dma. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XJY,uu[w,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G Some more charts and a bit of yen / dollar news http://www.forexnews.com/ai/default.asp?f=A20040220A.mgn On a larger time frame it looks like it was a logical place to take some profits on the trade and allow for some back fill http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XJY,uu[w,a]waclyyay[pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted February 21, 2004 Report Share Posted February 21, 2004 Dollars last gasp before total collapse taking everything with it, except commodes and real money of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2004 Report Share Posted February 21, 2004 As long as we dont' follow a Prechter Deflation Cycle, the XAU is likely tracing out a head and shoulders bottom, similar to the mid-1997 pattern. Way too much selling volume hit the tape today in the XAU, meaning another extended decline is underway. The recent low of 94 is the left shoulder. Coming up is the head, which will be in the 87 - 88 area after the current downleg is completed. This spring, we'll get a right shoulder somewhere. Then after a small retracement, a long run to the 1996 highs of 150 sometime in 2005. I am out of all my trading positions until we reach the 87 - 88 area. Gold itself might trade all the way down to $380. Excellent observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2004 Report Share Posted February 21, 2004 I actually thought the South Africans would get a break and start outperforming the North Americans when the USD started strengthening... The reasoning goes that a stronger dollar is good for South Africans who have earnings in USD and costs in Rand. Doesn't seem like it. A possible ABC down on GFI already under way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted February 21, 2004 Report Share Posted February 21, 2004 Dollars last gasp before total collapse taking everything with it,? exceptcommodes and real money of course. Well done Mr. Hankey. I agree with 90 as a rally target, it would fulfill the double bottom projection, unless the dollar is destined to resume puking immediately. Of course another possibility is that I am totally insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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