DrStool Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 Bong Yield Plunges Uncle Buck Loses Wood Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Yields are high, and Uncle Buck is too. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of the Long Bong Hit and Uncle Buck in the Anals RIGHT NOW! 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soros Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 They can't raise rates...or civilization based on "debt inflation forever" collapses at a very rapid rate as opposed to the slower more controled rate it is now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 in case anyone questions whether we have mania, check out ISO, up 50% (.20) on no news today. use to follow these crooks and if they did have news I'm sure it would be leaked - but in this case I think it's just more mania. bwdik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 first off, thanks for the "i am the matrix" head's up. hedged up a bit on that tip off! owe ya for that reminder as i didn't think it'd get so silly. a warning as only you can give: "I just popped a couple of SpeedBalls for a pick me up. I'll be sliding my bra straps off my shoulder in about 10 minutes...... " Initial claims 378K, Nov. retail sales +.9%, retail sales ex. autos +.4%, import prices +.4%. In the week ending Dec. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 378,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 365,000. The 4-week moving average was 364,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 362,500. after nasty gaps down in the mining sector.... surprise, boner run! BGO & WHT sellers were boinked en masse. as were many bipolar gold bulls. uber breasted ALTR was down 4% only to stage some heavy lifting of its own. vail resorts was in need of dough, so slothrop took it upon himself to help balance their budget. Bill Gross's over at pimpco recommends: ) Commodities and tangible assets 2) Foreign currencies 3) Real estate 4) TIPS 5) Global bonds and equities denominated in non-dollar currencies for the foreseeable future, what ever that means. business inventories were up 4/10th's % doc suggested unemployed people have more time to shop. better have TGT hire some additional homeland security. bearman liked this mania to cabbage patch dolls and beanie babys, harmless enuf until yer $'s in the dumpster with all those once loved toy fads. al & ben were busy at the repo desk: $5B overnight & $7B in 13 day repos. $3.25 B drain. so Steve McQueen came a callin. but... five year auciton failure... ten year auction failure. not sure how the 30 ended up down in yield... magic fingers i guess. as lock limit down asked: "Amazing action watching the long bond Considering the auction for the 10 year was the worst in six months and the foreigners never showed {23.9%} yield should be marching higher. Again dots not being connected as after initially spiking yield is challenging lows of the day. Where is the demand coming from? " or as barfing lays it out: "ET: Treasury: weak demand for the $12 bln auction of reopened 10-year notes. The higher than expected 4.365% auction rate and a 1.78 cover ratio reflects the weak bidding. Noncompetitive demand of $54 mln compares to the $156 mln of Nov." the disconnect continues as seen in the VXO. stunning, not much else to say bout dat. the comp broke out of it's downtrend channel, on 1.796B. 1074 as the top edge of the spx wedgie, 1073.63... mission accomlished? JesseL deserves some serious credit for those SPX charts, had me watching that 1074 like a hawk. nice call J! 10050s is huge resistance on dow, lots of overhead supply, or are there even greater fools... dunno. be aware: "Unbuttoning another on the blouse..... And applying more perfume. You boys better watch out. I'm sponsored by The Matrix Organization. Unlimited budget for high-heeled shoes, lingerie, lipstick and perfume." and off AMAT went not seconds later... timing... sheesh. stardoggie looks to have begun some kind of orbit, know if it's for real on monday. to top it off: "WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve's top policymakers fretted at a meeting six weeks ago that the U.S. jobs market might not recover fully until late 2005 "or even later" even if the economy were to grow at an above-average pace. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee believed the economy would grow "at a pace near or somewhat above" its potential for the next two years, according to minutes of a meeting they held on Oct. 28. But they said that growth would not generate a quick recovery in the battered U.S. labor market or fan inflation because employers appeared set to obtain "substantial further increases in productivity" from workers." panic buys... everywhere. no dog gets left behind. congrats to those who gamed the miner's snapback. epic trade! oh and... eff lance & mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 FOREX was definitely "not amused" with the FED minutes. A 70 pips upmove in EUR/USD so late in the day is not normal. Till new years day FOREX will be an El Dorado for sharks, so we can expect soem crazy action till then, cause from next week on volume will be very light. Maybe BoJ will use that opportunity to do some intervention. After all it doesnt look like that dollar has seen its bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 Questions are good. Is that 10006 pro forma or Gaap It is depreciated dollar adjustment, i.e, a little bit catch up to maintain the flatness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 perhaps someone can explain why the money supply Continues to contract? Please no it is different this time crap. My theory is the fed is scared tio death of said contraction and is desperately buying spoos to try to restore confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 11, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 Wndy, I have had a unsettled question for months now, i see that you have great expertise in the finacial understanding of the market. Perhaps you could enlighten me. I wrote Ths good Doc on schooltrading a bit ago. For months Doc states there is no, low money to put into the market. I heard quite differently from various sources during this time to the contrary. We now hear the phraseology of money being no more than jello pushed around the plate. How can the market have its base valus go higher and higher if new money is not added? If $1.00 dollar leaves x stock but the market goes up $1.24 how is this not adding money into the system? Even if larger margin accounts, more money is being added. Any help you can give is greatly appreciated. Oh and by the way a big Personal Thank You gor the chart you published the other day showing the lowest amount of funds invested in the market in a while. Where may i reviee that chart? It made me close my shorts yesterday and go long. I clearly remember taking big hits in the past when i shorted the market when the word was, and; facts showed, there was a lot of sideline money ready to enter into the market. Quite frankly I went from a Blue Christmas to a Merry Christmas in quick time. Much Thanks. Best Day, patriot. I'm no expert at where the money comes from. I presume that what is happening is that an increasing amount of leveraged cash is laying around. Just think of the massive amounts of money made this year. Junk Bonds, Emerging Market Exotica, riding TASR from $5 to $85, the SpreadTraders borrowing at 1% and investing it in Boob Job Loan Securitizations yielding 9%, using 400% leverage. There has been a ton of money made this year. Lots of that money is being Pyramided to chase this stuff higher. Don't ask me where it comes from. Here in SoCal, the amount of wealth is staggering. People paying cash for $2 million vacation homes. Money made in sports, entertainment, Financial Riverboating, lawyering at Enron and Global Crossing, you name it. Tons of new money made everywhere. And guess how much money is being made in Russian, China, and India. With those economies exploding, there must be fantastic sums being made, ready to invest in U.S. Dollar-Based Exotica. I'm just following the charts for now. Ask Doc about where the money is coming from. He's much more knowledgeable than me. I'm just a hapless Riverboater and Gambler, gaming the 5-second charts....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 splittin' up the loot Wall Street powerhouse Morgan Stanley kicked off the most joyous holiday season in several years Tuesday when, according to sources at the firm, the company told bankers about their bonuses... The bond market was on fire in 2003, as corporations refinanced billions of dollars of existing higher-rate debt or issued new debt with interest rates at their lowest level in decades. And according to published reports, the execs at the top firms will get a bundle. The reports suggested that Morgan Stanley chief Phil Purcell got $12 million, and suggest Sandy Weill of Citigroup could haul in a $17 million bonus. Stanley O'Neal of Merrill and Henry Paulson at Goldman will reported receive as much as $15 million and $13 million, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 Bong Yield Plunges Uncle Buck Loses Wood Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Yields are high, and Uncle Buck is too. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of the Long Bong Hit and Uncle Buck in the Anals RIGHT NOW! 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 think I will take a nap and dream about deflation. One can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 I think the Ms still matter. Money supply is still an important barometer of loans being made, in an asset/liability sense. So this historic decline is not something to be ignored. ? Dr. Stool. More drops in the money supply this week. On a chart, this would appear like a ?new low? for the move. M-2 and M-3 money supply measures dropped $5 and $11 billion respectively, continuing a downtrend over the last three months or so. Inflation adjusted money supply is an official component of the leading indicators because of its correlation to economic activity. The dynamics of credit bubble implosion are now operative (see yobob1/HypTig for more). The problem the Fed has is that by itself, it is no longer is able to promote credit growth along the hyperbolic curve needed to offset the mounting interest and principal repayments. Encouraging inflation and indirectly new credit for virgin areas ? like commodities ? may be one new twist. Central bank purchases of the US dollar were up about $40 billion the last four weeks, or about an astounding $520 billion annualized rate. The amazing thing is that the dollar continues to languish with all this pushing and shoving. Apparently these foreign central banks, mostly Japan, are willing to swallow the entire US balance of payments deficit - while not worrying about the possible inflationary consequences to their economy or the world. Japan, half the economic size of the US, is acting like a financial Atlas - holding up the world supply of US dollars on its shoulders. Well they will drop the ever larger ball sooner or later; otherwise they may experience inflationary consequences to their economy. Unlike China, Japan has not been as active in the process of sterilization, which is offsetting the huge increases in the supply of yen sold by purchasing them back through ? for instance ? special bond sales. Once the rate of intervention falls from this $500 billion rate (to say less than $200 , the dollar, economy and market will fall with it. At the rate money supply is falling, intervention will have to get even more aggressive to keep the US credit bubble inflated. Continuous heavy intervention on behalf of the US$ (from Japan) expands the world money supply pool outside the US - and has seeped back into US markets directly (in bonds) and indirectly (stocks). This temporarily offsets the impact of the steadily falling domestic money supply. On the bright side for gold bulls, the falling US$ and increasing supply of world money continues to support gold. With credit/debt growth slowing down percentage wise (see also the MoGauge report by Doc), and as kind of a leading indicator for money supply growth, look for a continued stagnation in traditional money supply measures. Any lurkers should get a subscription and read what Doc has to say about the dollar and Fed. It's worth it. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/ http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 Pursuant to the FOMC's productivity miracle mandate all employers have been issued the new LM36 and an ample supply of ampehtamines. All employers are hereby directed to stop using the bull whips and prozac previously issued which were causing too much time lost in the infirmary for lacerations and a generally happy but lethargic employee. Hot Shot LM36 Cattle Prod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 if the economy and earnings are so strong why do they tout pro forma earnings? Why the need? Why in the world are short rates @1% ? WHy are they scared shitless about raising rates? After what I saw happen in the bond market today I will be treading VERY carefully from now on in. The 10 year bottomed at 110 32/64 and rallied to 112 14/64 a huge move on a terrible 10 year auction. The lengths they are going to to keep long rates artificially low deserves attention. I may just sit this thing out until the bond breaks big. The long bond seems to be getting an enormous amount of attention with foreign buying in severe decline. If the fed is buying paper from the treasury it will eventually become impossible to keep it a secret. Game, set, match for the bears if the largest debtor nation in the history of the world is found to be playing games with the bond market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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