DrStool Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 Targets Steady Some Up Slightly You know about the GM bellwether theory. As goes GM, so goes the market. Here at the Stool we call them Stoolwethers. Follow GM GE IBM MSFT INTC JPM and ten other Stoolwethers in today's Stoolwethers update. Cycle charts and price targets. Know which way the stoolwether's are gonna fly! Keep your nose to the wind. Watch those Stoolwethers! Another regular feature in your Anals! Take a subscribatory and download 'em RIGHT NOW! 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 For those of you who follow Sornette, he has published a 32 page treatise comparing the Nikkei and the S&P. His conclusion is that the "anti-bubble" (bear market) is still alive but may have switched to a different mode. The crash that he predicted to begin this fall has only been postponed. He has also updated his web site predictions. The paper is at: http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/031...310/0310092.pdf The site: http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/p....asp#prediction how many times has he postponed it now? Personally I never put much creedence in his work, but now he's just being pathetic. The world does not perform to an equation. 32 pages of gibberish to me falls in the "methinks he doth protest too much" category - like ya, dude, we KNOW its overvalued, OK? A couple sentences would suffice. He must have an agenda of some sort - maybe he lost his shirt in the first crash? END RANT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 Thanks Bearbones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 JCOM guides down next two quarters. Stock down by 10% AT&T fraud is ongoing. This quarter they included a tax credit in earnings to beat by $0.05 factor out the tax credit (like they did to all of the negative "one time" charges) and the number is still pro forma but onl;y $0.43. which is a ten cent miss. stock down 2% TXN uses gain from sale of MU stock while excluding mark-to-market losses on MU stock in the same earnings number! either way stock is up 5% down slightly from rave party highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 wish Sornette would tell us when it's postphoned till! panic's are unknowable events but guaranteed ..... telecom bagholders forgot already Sornette and others I respect have arrived at the mid-600s in the S&P using totally different methodologies. Something, somewhere will break the back of the rally. It could be a financial problem, a collapse in the dollar, problems with North Korea, or who knows what. Maybe just simple exhaustion will cause investors to look at reality. I noticed yesterday that the gasoline additive MTBE will be outlawed in some states because it is a proven carcinogen. It will be replaced with ethanol thus raising the cost of gasoline by as much as 40 cents a gallon. ADM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 not one mention of the book to bill, must have been bad, anyone have any info? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 not one mention of the book to bill, must have been bad, anyone have any info? Thanks 0.95 as expoected up from 0.92 last month. Still contracting, but at a slower rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 The London (physical) markets ramped up gold and silver, but good. The NY (paper) market couldn't wait to slam it back down. Physical vs. paper. The battle is on. Hmmmmmm. I wonder who will win in the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 rog: thanks, wondered why no mention of the losses on mu. One giant propaganda machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coboy Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 For those of you who follow Sornette, he has published a 32 page treatise comparing the Nikkei and the S&P. His conclusion is that the "anti-bubble" (bear market) is still alive but may have switched to a different mode. The crash that he predicted to begin this fall has only been postponed. He has also updated his web site predictions. The paper is at: http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/031...310/0310092.pdf The site: http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/p....asp#prediction how many times has he postponed it now? Personally I never put much creedence in his work, but now he's just being pathetic. The world does not perform to an equation. 32 pages of gibberish to me falls in the "methinks he doth protest too much" category - like ya, dude, we KNOW its overvalued, OK? A couple sentences would suffice. He must have an agenda of some sort - maybe he lost his shirt in the first crash? END RANT I agree.. Basically, he's curve fitting his system to past data and thinking future will be the same. It never works ! Ask any trading system developer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 Sornette personally has all his money in t-bills. Heard it in the Puplava interview, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
An Ant Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 Great read over at Financial Sense Online last night.... Amazon is still losing money; while its competitors are earning a profit. Can intelligent investors be valuing the Amazon franchise 12-15 times more than its closest competition? It gets more absurd if you compare Amazon to other brick and mortar retailers....more http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Good to see there is some integrity left out there...for those that want to hear it that is! In the end, the analysis produced a value of $36.42, and that's our call for what Amazon's shares are worth today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 hysteria gone awry is one of the most bearish signs there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 Your Anals Opening Intraday is up and ready for download. Take a subscribatory, open it and download it RIGHT NOW, along with everything else in your Anals! ? 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 21, 2003 Report Share Posted October 21, 2003 AP newswires .... coalition forces have captured a senior Taliban commander in central Afghanistan and Afghan officials say the mullah may know of bin Laden?s location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.