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Just hooked up Interactive Brokers and my cheque cleared, so can now trade with the new borker. IB feed now going through Quotetracker, and can watch the futures, stocks, and options all dance around in realtime streaming. Can double click on bid or ask to initiate a sell, right from Quotetracker. Am happy. Looking forward to making some money again using much shorter term trading, active stop losses ALL THE TIME.

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Stock market liquidity conditions being what they are, I don't think a big rally is possible. Short term jams? Sure. Retesting the recent highs, perhaps. Beyond that, at this point, I don't see a rationale based on the cycle model I use.

 

Of course, I could be wrong. The sell signals I'm seeing could whipsaw.

 

Differences of opinion are what makes markets. I trust my model. I trust that it will identify the turning points and keep me on the right side of the market the vast majority of the time.

 

I'm really not worried that others think I'm wrong. If I am, the cycle model I use will tell me soon enough to prevent major damage.

 

I don't understand Gann or Ewaves or candlesthick. I have no intention of ever judging anyone who works with those disciplines. There are people who are very good with them, and people who aren't so good.

 

I sincerely appreciate that people want my opinions on the work of other TA anal cysts. It is simply not possible or appropriate for me to make those judgments. Because I have no idea whatsoever what these folks are doing, I cannot and will not pass judgment on them. If their opinion differs from mine, one of us will either switch, or be proven wrong by the market. My opinions are based on a clear model. I have confidence in it. I am not going to change my opinion based on another anal cyst's opinion. The only thing that can make me change my opinion is the action of the market as filtered by the cycle model I use. That model is starting to flash intermediate sell signals. It will take time for those signals to come to fruition. If the signals whipsaw, I promise to be the first to let you know.

 

Finally, the model that I use can be a little early, or a little late, at trend infartion points. I have absolute faith that they will catch the vast majority of every substantial move. Other good technicians may not be on exactly the same page at turning points, but most of them will catch the meat of any move. Each of you must decide what market model you are most comfortable with. Learn it. Test it. Use it. The more you use it, the more you will understand its nuances, and the better a trader you will become.

 

I do not have all the answers. I do a little analysis, and present my opinions for what they are worth. I sincerely appreciate those of you who give your support and like what I do. For those who don't, that's ok. Different strokes for different folks.

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From this am's post I just tossed up... refute this if you wish, Im all ears...

SG: While I respect your forecasts, I find myself going with the Elliot Wave projections of Raptor Research, they fit in with Doc's projections and other information I have. I'd like to hear your take on their forecast since its different than yours (A B C assignment). Is it an alternate count or do you dismiss it entirely?

 

Raptor Group Research:

"For Tuesday, a corrective rally off the low appears to be complete and downside resumed at the end of the day which suggests it should continue in at least early Tuesday. If true, support near 843 will likely not hold with next support near 820 though a higher support level near 830 at the 62% retrace may be found for the short term. Resistance above is near 858 and then 860 which should not be surpassed on any further rally with next resistance near 880."

 

"A major top appears to be complete with the highs for the year likely set. Add 950 to the list of numbers that may not be seen again for a while. 900 and even 850 are now on the endangered list."

 

Please visit the site for much more detail and different timeframes on the SPX,Nasdaq, and DJIA.

post-3-1049204955.gif

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Just hooked up Interactive Brokers and my cheque cleared, so can now trade with the new borker.  IB feed now going through Quotetracker, and can watch the futures, stocks, and options all dance around in realtime streaming.  Can double click on bid or ask to initiate a sell, right from Quotetracker.  Am happy.  Looking forward to making some money again using much shorter term trading, active stop losses ALL THE TIME.

Greg- don't forget... on IB, all Emini stops are cleared at the end of the afternoon session. It burned me once, don't let it catch you- it really IS quite a surprise when a contract runs right through your stop and you lose a bucket of cash. Also, options DO NOT count towards the $25K daytrading limit. If you have $25K of options, and $24.9K of stocks, every daily turn-around will count towards your 3daytrades-in-5days limit. After you exceed the limit, you can only close positions, not initiate new ones for 5 days. :o

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the final move down into March 12 can in no way be counted as an impulse.

Agreed.

 

In my view in order for the new 'C' thrust scenario to be valid that move would have to have been an X wave linking a final zigzag in a triple three combination that started on 10th Feb with a expanded flat.

 

However, in this respect I find the action of the SOX troubling since it has already retraced in excess of 61.8% off the highs, which makes a zigzag seem unlikely.

 

The alternative is that an expanded flat correction completed with a 5 on 21st March of which the move down into 12th March was the B wave. In that case I need to get short in a hurry.

 

Watching closely.

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Just hooked up Interactive Brokers and my cheque cleared, so can now trade with the new borker. ?IB feed now going through Quotetracker, and can watch the futures, stocks, and options all dance around in realtime streaming. ?Can double click on bid or ask to initiate a sell, right from Quotetracker. ?Am happy. ?Looking forward to making some money again using much shorter term trading, active stop losses ALL THE TIME.

Greg- don't forget... on IB, all Emini stops are cleared at the end of the afternoon session. It burned me once, don't let it catch you- it really IS quite a surprise when a contract runs right through your stop and you lose a bucket of cash. Also, options DO NOT count towards the $25K daytrading limit. If you have $25K of options, and $24.9K of stocks, every daily turn-around will count towards your 3daytrades-in-5days limit. After you exceed the limit, you can only close positions, not initiate new ones for 5 days. :o

Thanks for the heads up, Skidd.

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That model is starting to flash intermediate sell signals.

 

every time I leave the stool I have to sift the chaff from the stool - or maybe I should say every time I get off the pot I have to come back

 

interesting how the Crystal Ball Consensus out there is pointing to a low this week - a possible short-term swup and then down into late April/May

 

sounds to me the consensus is pointing Doc's way

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In keeping with Gladiator's excellent kick-off:

 

 

"Now playing at your local market"

 

Dollar jam, Gold jam, Market jam

 

Starring Da Boyz, Al Greenscam, & thousands of unwitting participants.

 

Oh yeah, if anybody is interested in how the NY market views gold compared to London, check out 12 Days of Financial Infamy and scroll down to the table (about 2/3 down).

 

Incontrovertable, in my view.

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