Guest Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 . . At this juncture p/c ratios have very little meaning. Remember, use certain tools at certain times, NOT all the time :wink2: I only use pcr when trying to determine a trend change and/or confirm a top/bottom so I can position at min risk into the new trend. That is now behind me (us) for now. Its quite obvious that the new trend is down and a major top has been confirmed. Its still early in trend to already begin fighting it. Relax! Its practically a slide right down to hell from here. Don't worry and like SG says...KISS. Like I've said before, if you try to outsmart the program traders and market makers and the other criminals at every twist and turn you'll end up outsmarting yourself out of participating in the really meaningful moves in the u-no-what. Very often the start of a major move in either direction is disbelieved because of the seemingly endless and most often meaningless consolidation volatility that precedes it - something, of course, that is specifically designed to shake as many people out as possible from participating in that move through the process of simply wearing them down. So keep paying attention to PD and SG and all of the others (including yours truly, of course :grin:) who keep preaching about the cardinal virtues of patience and simplicity. As my boss Sam has (at the risk of repetition) often said, Everything comes to he who waits. And chibear, thanks so much for your beautiful 6:58 AM post. It touched me very deeply and it enhanced the whole morning thread in a very meaningful way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 SG repeats his 1141 am post on the Q's For you ST tape watchers 23.97 to 24.01 a likely ST bounce here intra-day then cascading down to the 23.30 ish area after that... So this bounce is the last bounce of the day... SG says the more they hold her up today, the more she craps tomorrow... Either way, 22.50 range is my bottom near term before I cover... 22.37 is a possible number for the close today or tomorrow morning... Stay patient, short rallies.... sit tight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 CBOE PCR 11:30 AM PCR Equity 1.08 Index 0.99 Overall 1.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Last post should have read 23.37, not 22.37 Also, if she works higher, next target is 24.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 The talk about AIG reminds me of a true story that I think aptly illustrates the shambles that is the insurance business. AIG were the insurance underwriters of a power plant in Eastern Europe which unfortunately blew up. They were initially not too bothered because they had laid off most of the risk in the market, but literally when the dust settled it turned out their reinsurance arm had in a round about way picked up 50% of the exposure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Thanks SG, and thans Doc. Outstanding work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 SG, do you have an ultimate target low for the QQQ this year and if so what timeframe. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Nonsense Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Chiming in a bit late as is my wont, I don't day trade and only tune in to find out what is really happening in the world of high finance. I have worked for with and against Aig in the legal arena during my nomadic career. It is well known in the industry that AIG is very aggressive in using off shore subdisiaries to shift and mask potential liabilities, they also have some rather shady reinsurance arrangements. They have been the subject of numerous inquiries by State and Federal Insurance regulators. They have also been very aggressive in structured finance. In fact I am surprised they have kept the wheels on the cart this long. I suspect this will be just the first of a number of negative announcements. I also think that this will cause the regualtors to digg a little deeper and harder, in the past they have been put off by the fact that AIG appeared healthty and they didn't want to upset the applecart in a troubled industry. This won't be another Enron but I think it will turn out to be a major scandal once they get a close look at AIG's books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Realist If I was that good, I wouldnt be posting here... or shall I say, WHEN I get that good, I wont be posting here... I try to keep my vision to a few weeks window, and within those windows I analyze the mini waves within the waves, and trade accordingly. Last time I did a mockup though ,I had 18.50 to 18.70 as QQQ targets on this major wave down.... but, thats getting ahead... its a moving target One thing I will say, is my moving targets keep moving lower.... which is typical of 3rd of 3rds... In the interim, Im staying focused on few days to a week or so out and I stay sharper that way... Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 The euro markets started dropping on Jan. 13th, leading the U.S. market decline by a couple of days. Today European bourses got poleaxed again, and pulled the U.S. down with them. On the other hand, the U.S. is winning the competitive devaluation race, as the euro's climb shows. So why are the euro markets still leading us by the nose? Isn't there likely to be a decoupling one of these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardAssets Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 Is the SPX working on right shoulder of a mini inverted H&S to eventually fill the gap down from this morning, hope not???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injured Grizzly Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 SG, do you have an ultimate target low for the QQQ this year and if so what timeframe. TIA Realist: Adam Hamilton at Zeal has a qqq target of about 15 by summer. That or a Vix.x of 50. Which ever comes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 CBOE PCR 12:00 PM CST Equity 1.00 Index 0.94 Overall 0.98 The 'rear' and dreaded wave formation appears, to the dismay of this poster. Okay, I just made that up but it sounded good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 If you consider the typical ratio of QqQ to NDX and NDX to COMP you can figure out a long term target for Q from the long term cmaps for the COMP published in the Weak End Anals every week. I come up with a price of 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torah man Posted February 4, 2003 Report Share Posted February 4, 2003 CBOE PCR 12:00 PM CST Equity 1.00 Index 0.94 Overall 0.98 The 'rear' and dreaded wave formation appears, to the dismay of this poster. Okay, I just made that up but it sound good i remember that when we get a crossover on these pc ratio charts, that wierd things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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