Hurricane Ivan, and Now Jeanne

[DrStool]

The NHC's 5 day forecast track has the storm going directly over the southern tip of Florida and straight up the center of the state. This is the same track taken by the 1926 hurricane which killed thousands around Lake Okeechobee, West Palm Beach and throughout the state. The heavily populated Southeast corner of the state is forecast to be in the strongest northeast quadrant of the storm as it approaches. The storm currently has sustained winds in excess of 160 miles an hour, enough to destroy everything in its path, with possible strengthening before some weakening passing over Cuba. Hurricane force winds extend out 60 miles from the center of the storm or 120 miles across the full width.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/...IF/090853W5.gif

 

Follow the NHC latest forecasts and maps here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

With winds this high, this storm is a killer. If you are in Florida, for god's sakes, make preparations to get the hell out now. You should leave at least 2 days before the storm is forecast to hit. Have a good road map. The turnpike and interstates will be jammed. Be prepared to use local roads and to spend 12-14 hours on the road to make it to relative safety in Georgia or farther north. Take everything with you that is important to you. There may be nothing to return to.

 

If there are stoolies out there eho need assistance and others in a position to offer it to those of us who have left Florida, please feel free to use this board to exchange info.

 

God bless all Floridians. If this storm does not weaken, our homes may no longer exist by this time next week.

[microdon]

Crossing Cuba, a bit of shear, and some dry air being sucked into the storm (similar to Frances) may combine to reduce intensity of winds (hurricanes have a hard time holding at Category 5) and height of storm surge. Projected forward speed (greater than Frances) may reduce flooding from rains. In any case, this year has hopefully been an eye opener for a rather complacent species known as Man. That finger of land known as Florida is very exposed, and people have got to realize that it is subject to violent storms (recall the great hurricane of 1927, which wrecked the Florida real estate industry, the super hurricane of 1935 which ravaged the Keys, and Andrew which "mercifullly" tracked across a relatively low population area of south Florida). When population pressures reach their current size, deadly storms like Ivan have no choice but to wreak havoc on a massive scale; it comes with the territory. A few weeks ago, stoolies were discussing another catastrophe in the making, the possibility of a return to real drought conditiions and their effect on water in the overcrowded West. Because this disaster is happening in slow motion, sheeple will not realize that this climate change could be more catastroophic, affecting more people and more lifestyles. I sincerely wish Florida stoolies the best next week; but I must remind us all that, although we are confident a Category 5 economic event is coming in the near future, we sometimes forget that Nature can play a deadly hand that even Al and Shrub and Dick-head cannot even stop or talk away.

[Butterfield 8]

I live in NYC, so not too helpful. Any stoolies in Southeastern states who could house Floridians chime in please.

[twignberries]

This is my neighborhood in Ft. Lauderdale after Frances' 50 MPH winds.

 

Ivan and his 160 MPH winds scare the shite out of me. Needless to say we will be vacating the area if the current forcast proves accurate. Atlanta here we come. I'll be making a hotel reservation today and we will leave Saturday morning.

 

Why the hell does God hate us so much here?

[DrStool]

More on IVAN.

 

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content...n/news.html#map

[Butterfield 8]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html

 

Doc - looks like it might miss Florida. We can hope and pray.

[On The Beach]

I have access to R/T data/advisories from NHC. 11AM advisory. Fundamentally, the cone remains 600 miles wide. They have shifted the track East based on a potential ridge that may impact steering currents.

 

 

Our intent is once again -- as with Charley -- to lower the shutters and evacuate to the Orange Co. area (Winter Park). As most of you know, Charley's path made a sudden change in the last hour before landfall and missed Tampa Bay. Ultimately, the inland home to whcih we evacuated sustained more damage than our home ostensibly in the path of Charley. Forecasts are subject to considerable error althouh the forecasting for Frances was largely correct

 

 

To the stoolie who suggested I evacuate my family during Frances: SHOVE IT! :

If the poster were even remotely aware of the circumstances, they would know Tampa Bay residents were urged NOT to evacuate because (1) Frances' swath was so large (2) Frances was expected to (and did) bring winds not in excess of 90mph (3) Much of the public chelters in TB Area were made availabe for evacuees from the East coat.

[DrStool]

If this storm does not weaken, I don't care where you are in the Florida peninsula, you are at extreme risk. Life is more important than property. I would not pay any attention to the advice from the authorities. Leave early. I left Florida before Frances because I did not want to play Russian roulette.

 

The damage from Francis was far less than it would have been because the storm weakened before it hit the coast. If Ivan does not weaken, and it hits where projected, it will be just as powerful as Andrew, and 3 times larger than Andrew, which was a small storm. The National Hurricane Center does not know where this thing is going, and how strong it will be when it hits. Better to be safe than sorry, in my view.

[DrStool]

There is a huge difference between a 100 mile per hour hurricane, such as what hit Palm Beach County, and a 140 mile per hour plus hurricane. If it's a cat 5 it will destroy all structures in its path.

[DrStool]

00

WTNT44 KNHC 091452

TCDAT4

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

 

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING ABOUT 1141Z.

FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS WERE 156 KNOTS WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED

PRESSURE OF 917 MB AND 921 MB MEASURED BY A DROP. IVAN HAS AN

OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER...THE RING OF

CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT. INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS. HURRICANES NORMALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN

SUCH PEAK INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME AND MOST LIKELY THERE WILL WE

SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE

BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 UNTIL IT REACHES CUBA. THEREAFTER..THE EFFECTS

OF LAND...INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CAUSE

WEAKENING.

 

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL

MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING

THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE

FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW

SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE

HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE

BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST

TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO

COLLAPSE AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN

AS IT CROSSES CUBA. A RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS A LITTLE STRONGER

THAN ANTICIPATED...WILL BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF

OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY THE UK...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS GLOBAL

MODELS. A WEAKER RIDGE THAN ANTICIPATED COULD RESULT ON A MORE

NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY THE EAST COAST OF

FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE 4-5 DAY OFFICIAL

FORECAST...WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...CALLS FOR A SOLUTION IN

BETWEEN...BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER WEST/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE

SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN FLORIDA.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.5N 71.4W 140 KT

12HR VT 10/0000Z 15.3N 73.3W 140 KT

24HR VT 10/1200Z 17.0N 75.2W 135 KT

36HR VT 11/0000Z 18.5N 77.3W 135 KT

48HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 79.0W 135 KT

72HR VT 12/1200Z 21.0N 80.5W 130 KT

96HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.0W 115 KT

120HR VT 14/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W 85 KT INLAND

 

 

$$

[On The Beach]

There is a huge difference between a 100 mile per hour hurricane, such as what hit Palm Beach County, and a 140 mile per hour plus hurricane. If it's a cat 5 it will destroy all structures in its path.

Correct. As with Charley -- a CAT 4 storm -- in its current state Ivan is potentially catastrophic. I lived in (and am a native of) Coral Gables, FL during Andrew. In its current vertical path up the state, much of South and Central Florida are facing a similar horrendous impact. Plan accordingly. Evacuation orders have been issued for the Keys already. It is conceivable that several million people will face a mandatory evacutation. And, unlike Frances and Charley both coasts may be affected to the same degree.

[DrStool]

I agree that by the time the authorities in Tampa Bay told people not to evacuate, that was the correct advice. If you do not get out ahead of time, then it's too late. In the case of Francis they knew it would have to cross the state from east to west, and that by the time it got to Tampa it would be weaker. But if you stand any chance of being in the direct path of the storm when it makes landfall, and particularly if your area looks like it could be in the northeast quadrant, it's best to leave early. Wait and see is not a good policy in this case.

[DrStool]

The 1926 hurricane that came up the center of the state never weakened becuause the outer feeder bands remained over water the whole trip up the peninsula. It killed people in North Florida too.

[On The Beach]

I agree that by the time the authorities in Tampa Bay told people not to evacuate, that was the correct advice. If you do not get out ahead of time, then it's too late. In the case of Francis they knew it would have to cross the state from east to west, and that by the time it got to Tampa it would be weaker. But if you stand any chance of being in the direct path of the storm when it makes landfall, and particularly if your area looks like it could be in the northeast quadrant, it's best to leave early. Wait and see is not a good policy in this case.

 

 

Doc,

 

 

With Charley, 90% of Pinellas and 80% of Hillsborough Co.s residents were under a mandatory evacuation order. As were Manatee and Sarasota Counties. The areas surrounding Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda were as well. Unfortuneately, some in the latter area did not heed that advice. I am not aware of ANY period where residents of TB were told 'not to evacuate' although the very late intensification and direction of the storm caused some to hesitate. That simply should not happen with Ivan.

 

With Frances, again, 0% of the TB Area was under evacuation orders . In fact, Pinellas Co. closed their schools to provide shelters for those under mandatory evacutation from the east coast.

[threadbare]

Doc, I'm so sorry to hear this about Ivan. I thought at first that he would be kind of like the after shock of an earthquake. My God, is it the opposite? Frances and Charly just dress rehearsals for the real thing. Are you still heading home or at home in Florida, or are you sitting tight ?