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B4 The Bell Wednesday March 10


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You know TE and I are pals have been for a long time as many of us are-one of our buddies who shall remain unamed is going thru a rough patch- Salud Amigo! ;)

???? My prayers are with whomever it is but in my faith it would be good to have a name. I will remain silent. Email me.

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Hey Sledd...the link didn't work for me...thanks for thinking of me though. Did you mount RCL today? I heard the criminal upgrade this morning, and got on board after it rolled over. It's a long way down from here.

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I think with all the indicators I look at and sentiment the way it is we go down. However, I am not convinced. There are plenty of stoolpid people out there looking for an opportunity to lose thier money on the long side.

Most bearish of the bears in Stoolville exercising caution -- a good sign methinks. ;)

I agree but, you must realise, I have basicaly no emotion about trading. Everything else, yes, the markets, no. I will go short big time should we break 1113.

The peeps poured $40+ billion into mutual funds during January ... which is now all underwater.

 

The February figures don't come out until March 29, but I would bet another $30 billion or more went into the maw of the MFs in February. And that's all underwater too. (If it proves to be $40 billion or more, I will get VERY bearish.)

 

The decisive 1.5% selloff today reminds me of the 1987 and 2000 tops. The pattern should not be a slow, meandering sinking, but rather a robust top followed promptly by a vigorous selloff. That spells "end of trend and turnaround."

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Plunger,

 

No on RCL but I need to pick up some new puts tomorrow. RCL put 06 LEAPS are only 2.50 on strike of 30 and 3.90 on strike of 35. might pick up some of the 35's.

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Down Jones,

 

You can testify that I have not recieved Tomlinson nor Curry yet. My thoughts are my own. for Da record. By the way, how ya doin?

Hi TE,

I just saw your post, sorry for the delay.

I just received Curry & Tomlisnon's updates about 15 minutes ago.

Yes it's true that you didn't have them at 9:30.

I hope you're doing ok!!

DJ

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I think with all the indicators I look at and sentiment the way it is we go down. However, I am not convinced. There are plenty of stoolpid people out there looking for an opportunity to lose thier money on the long side.

Most bearish of the bears in Stoolville exercising caution -- a good sign methinks. ;)

I agree but, you must realise, I have basicaly no emotion about trading. Everything else, yes, the markets, no. I will go short big time should we break 1113.

The peeps poured $40+ billion into mutual funds during January ... which is now all underwater.

 

The February figures don't come out until March 29, but I would bet another $30 billion or more went into the maw of the MFs in February. And that's all underwater too. (If it proves to be $40 billion or more, I will get VERY bearish.)

 

The decisive 1.5% selloff today reminds me of the 1987 and 2000 tops. The pattern should not be a slow, meandering sinking, but rather a robust top followed promptly by a vigorous selloff. That spells "end of trend and turnaround."

Fear will strike much faster this time than the last two tops. People have not forgotten how much the last down turn hurt, and will be quick to bail out when the fear response strikes...and it won't take very long. This has been the Wishful Thinking Rally...but the point of recognition will come all too fast, and will feel all too familiar. A few more revelations, a few more lies exposed, and this one could turn into a full blown crash.

 

Psychology need only shift from "Buy The Dips" to "Sell The Rallies" to move from a bull to a bear phase.

 

Where do you think the fear lies?

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MH & Plunge,

 

I think you may be right. The late 90s was all about The New Economy, investing for the long term, buying the dips. I didn't hear any of that talk last year or so. Lots of speculators still feeling the sting from 2001-2 I'll bet. They'll jump out at the first indication of pain. But J6P won't sell until the bottom and that's a long way from here, IMO.

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DIARY-U.S. Treasuries, Thursday, March 11

Wed Mar 10, 2004 04:12 PM ET

ALL TIMES EST/GMT

TREASURY DEPARTMENT:

 

Treasury Department announces bill sale for the following week, 11 a.m. (1600 GMT).

 

Treasury Department sells 10-year notes, about 1 p.m. (1800 GMT).

 

FEDERAL RESERVE:

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies before a House Education and the Workforce Committee hearing on roles of education and innovation in producing sustained economic growth and creating better job opportunities, Washington, D.C., 10 a.m. (1500 GMT).

 

Fed releases weekly money stock, liquid assets and debt measures and the weekly report on factors affecting reserves of depository institutions and the condition statement of the Federal Reserve banks, 4:30 p.m. (2130 GMT).

 

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle....storyID=4541018

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And on Fryday

 

Friday, March 12

 

CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan

Greenspan speaks on "Education" and receives honorary debree at

the Boston College Finance Conference 2004, 1200 EST/1700 GMT.

NO Q&A. Boston College, Silvio Conte Forum, Beacon St. Contact:

Jack Dunn, 617-552-3351. Information: www.bc.edu/fc2004

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