Hiding Bear Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Welcome to another week of trading, humor, insights, and what not at B4 the Bell! Does it ever seem to you that Fed members are bullhorning the economy every day (like many here have pointed out)? Well that's because they are bullhorning every day, and the sad thing it that it seems to be working: The Fed Does Dallas and Boston By FLOYD NORRIS Published: April 25, 2004 THE economy looks good now. But whose fault will it be if business activity weakens as the presidential election approaches? Some conflicting answers can be found in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, published before each meeting of the central bank's open market committee. The book includes reports from each Federal Reserve district, based in large part on interviews with local business executives. The Beige Book released last week showed subtle differences in the views of those sounded out in the Boston district, home of Senator John Kerry, and in the Dallas district, from which President Bush hails, a fact that was noted by Tom Schlesinger, a Fed watcher at the Financial Markets Center, a liberal research group in Philomont, Va. "Businesses are mostly optimistic that demand for their products will keep increasing throughout the year," reported the Boston Fed. "However, they also express some caution and uncertainty in the face of continuing geopolitical instability, the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the possibility of rising interest rates." In other words, they were worried about the war in Iraq. In Dallas, too, there is optimism and uncertainty, but "geopolitical instability" isn't the cause of the latter. "In general," reported the Dallas Fed, "contacts are optimistic about the outlook for activity, but remain cautious, noting concerns that the upcoming presidential election will likely result in a lot of negative press about the economy that could dampen activity." In other words, don't blame Iraq if business turns bad. Blame the economic naysayers (from Boston?) and the news media that report on what they have to say. The Fed Does Dallas and Boston http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/25/weekinreview/25norr.html China Hits the Brake, but Maybe Too Softly By KEITH BRADSHER Published: April 25, 2004 The New York Times HONG KONG LISTEN to the recent talk from senior Chinese officials and look at a few of their actions, and it may seem at first that Beijing is finally acting decisively to rein in a galloping economy. The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, has raised reserve requirements for banks twice in the last five weeks. The central bankers and officials from the powerful State Development and Reform Commission have said that investment in apartment buildings, factories and other fixed assets - up 43 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier - is excessive and must be brought under control. On the surface, even the money supply in China appears to be growing a little less swiftly these days. China's broad M2 measure of money supply rose 18.9 percent in March from a year earlier, a steep ascent but not quite as fast as last summer, when it was soaring at an annual pace of 21 percent. Yet, has government policy really changed that much? Independent economists say the changes to date represent only small steps. "The measures the government has initiated so far seem fairly limited, and it really depends on what other policies come into place" over the next several months, said Wang Xiaolu, the deputy director of the National Economic Research Institute in Beijing. China Hits the Brake, but Maybe Too Softly http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/25/business...ney/25view.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 China had better not hit the brakes too hard as a fair proportion of US GDP is actually stolen from China(well at least I thought so!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Pilgrim Pride shut plant with 1,300 jobs in restructure (PPC) By Emily Church LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (PPC) expects to sell or close its Hinton, Va. turkey commodity meat operations with the loss of 1,300 jobs as the group restructures its turkey business. http://aolpf5.marketwatch.com/news/newsfin...53&siteid=aolpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Unfortunately the Chinese have yet to steal our Fed's anit-lock braking technology. Warning on the visor: "Too tapping brakes often at inopertune time will crash spinning car into the rails of guard." The economic balck hole gobbles another , eh Sleddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Crapvision very bullish today, Guest Host - Joe Theisman former NFL star is very bullish..says prices are still a discount to yr2000 and we have much further to go....now interviewing Jack Albin from Harris Trust who is bullish up to another 4-5%. Mark Haynes counters by saying well "you gotta put the money somewhere". Jack says market very bullish and needs a shakeout..though he doesnt say why not right now and he DOES NOT see any Fed rate increase as deflation is a still a worry for the Fed. Hence his bullishness after the shakeout. He also says REITS are still 15-20% overvalued even after being the worst performers for this year. I have to say I agree wholeheartedley with Jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesun Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Pilgrim Pride shut plant with 1,300 jobs in restructure (PPC) By Emily ChurchLONDON (CBS.MW) -- Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (PPC) expects to sell or close its Hinton, Va. turkey commodity meat operations with the loss of 1,300 jobs as the group restructures its turkey business. http://aolpf5.marketwatch.com/news/newsfin...53&siteid=aolpf Sled, Thanks for the GREAT work. More of the middle classed getting f--ked, while top management will be getting the BIG bonus for f--king the workers. :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 I think this 'shakeout' as Jack puts it will be mind-blowing. I will probably NOT be playing the 2-4% rallies in between this 3-4 month decline. I also think we will c 950-965 in sme kind of a death plunge to bring guys like Prechter back on Crapvision. Till then I remain riskly bullish till this Friday -Wednesady next week. If we hit 1128-1135SPX today I will add to longs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Steve Leisman thinks the FED is on Inflation watch - Can you imagine when the 4yr cycle tops next year and the inflation rate still hasnt picked up. Welcome to Japan !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Have a look at the 2nd chart &disp=O]THE BIG PICTURE God help us when we get to the lower trendline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 The Fed Bullhorning persisted all weekend. It never stops. Why do these Carnival Barkers feel the need to "soothe and re-assure" 24/7 when interest rates are already at 66-year lows?? Wouldn't surprise me to hear that some big derivative player has gone BROKE the last couple of weeks, and the Bullhorning is necessary to keep all other counterparties liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Morning Crew- Yes they should be worried about Iraq- Fallujah has hit the fan 10 Marines down overnight, 1/2 the city on fire-ceasefire my Ass. Window at the bell for 25 minutes-I'm looking DOWN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Stopped minus 30-bought 10 May 1145 puts stops 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 B4, I trust your stop is at 1145 cause you think the break past 1144 may a false one and will you honour your stop if it 1145 is hit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 Let me guess. Is the tragedy in Fallujah already sanitized in the 'Merkuhn press' spin cycle? Has it just been removed and sent down the Winston Smith memory tube? They followed the script for an up open. Bonar up and gold slapped down - right till 3:00 a.m., and then the reversal to prompt/fuel an up open without loss of control of forex/metals. This is their opportunity. Can they jam it through 1144 / 1500? Even if they can right now, can they keep it through to the close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2004 Report Share Posted April 26, 2004 If da Sexy SOX turns around then its off to da races. Banks holding...for now ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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