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B4 the Bell Humpday April 20, 2004


Guest yobob1

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Guest yobob1

Not really, but hey sex sells so think about it Doc. :lol:

 

Metals are getting crushed and the dollar continues it's North bound trajectory while the boys in the bond boats are trying like hell to roll up the windows as the sea laps over the deck. Of course the fuktures have recovered nicely. What you expected them to be down? You're not paying attention are you?

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I don't know right now if the precious metal sell off is telling us something other than leverage is dangerous - or something more signficant. If the dollar can hold on to its gains, we may be in for a long wait for the PMs to recover.

 

As far as the stock and bond markets go, for longer term traders, sell while you have a chance.

 

On a lighter note:

 

Secretary gets "reward for me being me." The funny thing is that no one noticed millions missing for quite some time.

 

Ex-Secretary Guilty of Embezzling $7 Million

By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

Published: April 21, 2004

 

Reuters

 

A former Goldman Sachs secretary in London was found guilty yesterday of embezzling at least $7 million from her bosses in an elaborate fraud in which she secretly wired blocks of money to bank accounts in Cyprus.

 

Liscensed to Steal

post-20-1082546251_thumb.jpg

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Guest yobob1

Mortgage requests in a sickening free fall

 

The Washington trade group's refinancing index fell by 10.9 percent to 2,550.3 from previous week's 2,861.6. The refinancing index is half the recent peak set a month ago.

 

The purchase index is off 13 percent from its all-time high of 501.6, set in January.

 

Even if mortgage rates climb moderately higher from current levels, lenders are still poised to enjoy a strong year.

 

"Everything will stay good," said James Nutter (An eternal optimist with rose colored glasses and a direct hotline to Alan Greenspooge), head of James B. Nutter Mortgage Co. in Kansas City, Missouri.

 

Still, Nutter said on Tuesday new loans issued through his firm have fallen about a third since mid-March indicating some slowing in new loan applications since rates have begun rising. (Uh, Duhhhh) Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 31.7 percent of all new requests filed last week, up from 29.4 percent the prior week. Can you say future shock?

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Reuters Diaries from Forbes.com ALL TIMES ARE GMT

 

For full slate of G7 economic data, click on: <G7TODAY>

------------------------------------------------------------

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21

 

 

1100 - U.S. MORTGAGE MARKET INDEX, Washington

 

Mortgage Bankers Association releases weekly mortgage

 

market and refinancing indexes for the week ended April

 

16. The respective indexes read 788.6 and 2,861.6 in

 

the previous week.

 

 

1200 - NORGES BANK INTEREST RATE DECISION, Oslo

 

Norwegian central bank's policy-setting executive board

 

holds meeting on interest rates. The bank is likely to

 

keep rates on hold following a stronger than expected

 

rise in core inflation, see [nL2065271]. News conference

 

is scheduled at 1245 GMT.

 

1230 - SWEDISH RIKSBANK DEP GOVERNOR PERSSION SPEAKS

 

Swedish central bank deputy governor Kristin Persson

 

gives a speech.

 

 

N/A - CHINESE OFFICIALS IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

 

Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and Chinese Commerce Minister

 

Bo Xilei in Washington for talks with Commerce Secretary

 

Don Evans and U.S. Trade Representative Bob Zoellick on

 

trade disputes.

 

 

1400 - U.S. FED'S GREENSPAN SPEAKS, Washington

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies on the

 

U.S. economy before the Joint Economic Committee.

 

 

1400 - SWEDISH CENTRAL BANK CHIEF HEIKENSTEN SPEAKS

 

Riksbank governor Lars Heikensten speaks.

 

 

1530 - SAN FRANCISCO FED'S PARRY SPEAKS, Gettysburg, Pa.

 

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Robert

 

Parry speaks on "The U.S. Economic Outlook: a Monetary

 

Policymaker's Perspective" at Gettysburg College.

 

 

1800 - U.S. FED RELEASES BEIGE BOOK

 

Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book, a summary of

 

economic conditions in the 12 Fed districts.

 

THURSDAY, APRIL 22

 

 

0800 - JAPAN VICE FINANCE MINISTER TAKES QUESTIONS, Tokyo

 

Vice Finance Minister Masakazu Hayashi holds a regular

 

news conference.

 

 

N/A - ECB PRESIDENT TRICHET IN CONFERENCE, Frankfurt

 

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet takes

 

part in ECB conference on statistics; among attendees are

 

ECB Governing Council members Christian Noyer, Nout

 

Wellink and Guy Quaden (to April 23).

 

0645 - FRENCH CONSUMER SPENDING, Paris

 

French consumer spending is seen down 0.3 percent in

 

March from the previous month.

 

0800 - BOE MEMBER RICHARD LAMBERT SPEAKS, London

 

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Richard

 

Lambert speaks at the Institute of Public Policy

 

Research.

 

0830 - UK M4, PUBLIC FINANCES DATA, London

 

Britain's provisional M4 money supply for March is seen

 

up 0.6 percent from the previous month and up 8.1 percent

 

year-on-year. The public sector net cash requirement is

 

seen at 12 billion pounds, versus February surplus of 23

 

million.

 

1230 - ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEETING, Frankfurt

 

European Central Bank Governing Council holds meeting. No

 

interest rate announcements are scheduled.

1245 - RIKSBANK PRESIDENT HEIKENSTEN SPEECH, Brussels

 

Riksbank President Lars Heikensten speaks at the two-day

 

"Brussels Economic Forum", organised by the European

 

Commission.

 

 

 

DEBT AUCTIONS:

 

LONDON - First auction of new gilt due on December 7,

 

2038.

 

 

NOT COMPLETE :cry:

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Mortgage requests in a sickening free fall

 

The Washington trade group's refinancing index fell by 10.9 percent to 2,550.3 from previous week's 2,861.6. The refinancing index is half the recent peak set a month ago.

 

The purchase index is off 13 percent from its all-time high of 501.6, set in January.

 

Even if mortgage rates climb moderately higher from current levels, lenders are still poised to enjoy a strong year.

 

"Everything will stay good," said James Nutter (An eternal optimist with rose colored glasses and a direct hotline to Alan Greenspooge), head of James B. Nutter Mortgage Co. in Kansas City, Missouri.

 

Still, Nutter said on Tuesday new loans issued through his firm have fallen about a third since mid-March indicating some slowing in new loan applications since rates have begun rising.  (Uh, Duhhhh) Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 31.7 percent of all new requests filed last week, up from 29.4 percent the prior week.  Can you say future shock?

What B4 said about the stock market, also applies to the mortgage market - this is only the beginning of the end.

 

Conventional mortgage activity has not actually declined much yet. ARM mortgages have been running at 60 to 100% above last year's levels in recent weeks. In addition ARMs are on average about 80% larger than conventional mortgages.

 

The only question is - who will be the ARM bagholders when the real estate market unwinds? GSEs? Money market funds? Or will the bill just be passed to the Amercian people like in previous S&L/banking disasters?

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Purely speculative. Butt has short term relative strength

and a good long base.

 

OMR - the shipwreck company with the gold bearing ships

 

chart

 

on TV National Geographc soon -

 

http://shipwreck.net/mediaappearances.shtml

 

will likely make more money than TASR :P

and is not intended to hurt people.

 

Pardon the tout. Long of course.

Good luck to all Stoolies today.

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My View in a pictiure or 2

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorit...et?obj=ID728032

 

http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htm

http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/putcall.htm

http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm

 

I expect a ferocious rally[ okay 2 of them with a 3% decline in between] and then a spine-chilling plunge in early June -:) .....rally till end of June and another spine-chiller into August

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600 Cleveland Teachers Likely To Lose Jobs

NewsNet5.com, OH - 1 hour ago

CLEVELAND -- Hundreds of layoffs are anticipated as the Cleveland Municipal School District faces a budget crisis.

 

http://www.newsnet5.com/education/3025977/detail.html

 

 

Hoping to turn a profit by year-end, Gateway executives are crafting a restructuring plan that could reduce its product lines and, in a worst-case scenario, slash its work force by half, sources familiar with the plans told CNET News.com. As part of its planning, Gateway management is evaluating at least one scenario that would cut its work force to approximately 2,000 employees, about half of its current figure of 4,000, according to sources

 

http://news.com.com/2100-1041-5196190.html

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I don't know right now if the precious metal sell off is telling us something other than leverage is dangerous - or something more signficant. If the dollar can hold on to its gains, we may be in for a long wait for the PMs to recover.

Mebbe both?

HRFF hASS repeatedly warned the gold bugz of the FOLLY of getting all lathered up, the way they did, around here, in recent months, with bonkers of the world in possession of simply STAGGERING amounts of gold to unleash on the market, and, still, FURmly in control of the ability to manipulate PoG. It wuz naive of them SNOT to think that having let gold run up, it would get hammered in an election year or that the dollar, having run down, would not be "rescued", albeit temporarily. FURther, he thinx it folly to embrace gold in a HUGE way until this biznez of inflation vs deflation is settled. Recently inflation SEEMS to be getting the upper hand. Stats FURom lASSt year, in that regard, which BARE will post later, today, probably on IDS or M2M, are simply daunting. HOWEVER, maybe, just maybe the pre-deflationary spurt of inflation hASS by THIS point, mostly, run it's course. Why does HRFF say this? Because of what stox are doing - namely NOTHING except, albeit slowly, getting worse. AND because of the turn in the bond mkt - BARE doesn't necessarily think higher rates correlate w rising inflation.

HAYWIRE THEORY which postulates that thingz go "HAYWIRE" at the WORST possible times, namely, JUST when it appears machinations, such as this mASS(_)_)ive efFURt at global reflation look like they really, after all, MIGHT succeed and take off in a BIG way, would suggest that DEFLATION would rear(_)_) itz ugly head, oh, say, right about HERE, right about NOW, and STOP that reflationary momentum DEAD IN ITZ TRAX.

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