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B4 The Bell, Frieday April 16


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They doin' their best to paint the Dow with PG and CAT..we'll see how much longer it lasts..

CAT has been one of thier favs with of course IBM which I have many PUTS on that are coming my way :D :D :D

 

They are trying to buy the BKX.X and HGX.X More informed and well timed investing..UFB

BKX.X is key here

If that turns look out below

When you build roads that go to no were and come from no were.

When you pave the same road 3 times in a 1 1/2 year.

When you rebuild the roads of the nation just to re-elect the bushman.

 

It take lot and lot of CAT equipment.

 

What will happen to CAT when we have finished the re-election bull.

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Lately I've been pondering OPECs latest round of "cuts" and I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't so much cuts as they are a veiled reference to production peaking.  All of the oil fields in the Middle East are geographicallly contained in an area about the size of Indiana.  Horizontal drilling and water injection have been widely deployed for at least the last decade or more.  Water injection in some fields has reached the point that they are now bringing up 9 times as much water as oil which greatly increases the cost of production when seperation is added in.  One might note that North Sea production appears to be in decline.  It is worth considering whether Russia may actually be carrrying the "swing" vote on oil these days.

More than a 100,000 US troops in Iraq, but where are they? Hypertiger says they are guarding oil installations and pipelines. If so, the marginal cost of obtaining oil from the ME is somewhere about $100 a barrel - even if we disregard the costs of horizontal drilling and water injection.

 

In a perfectly balanced money system, increased costs in one area would have to be offset by decreased expenses in other areas - so theoreticially increased energy costs should have an adverse effect on the economy. The part where the Fed uses injection methods of its own is what we have to worry about. Will they drill horizontally into savers accounts through a combination of higher inflation and lower interest rates - or will they just inject more fiat water down and flood the system? Either way real savers are in danger if they can not avoid the Fed, and either way the Fed can not create new wealth.

It is safe to say that the actual ground forces number 70,000...Actual combat troops or those with the primary ability to close with and destroy the enemy and dominate ground are 40,000...

 

Faluja and Najaf are reported to employ 4,000 ground troops...which is 10% of total ground forces...There is no resistance fighters in the sky...Only ground troops employed to eradicate all resistance in an area of operation can win...

 

Of the 1,500 troops in Faluja 15% of them or 225 have been killed and wounded...and they have entrenched themselves in the 1/3 of the city (Not a town as reported by the media) of 350,000 that they have taken so far...It is house to house fighting and the damage is massive...There have been massive round the clock bombing and strafing runs by C-130 gunships, Helicopter gunships, A-10's and F- 16's...The powerplant was bombed right off the bat...There is even talk of cluster bombs being employed and M1A1's fireing flechette rounds...Were talking massive civilian death tolls here...So far 1000 and 2000 wounded...diease and dehydration will claim 1000's more...

 

Supply lines are under constant attack and 1 bridge has been destroyed...

 

The true situation on the ground is not even close to being reported realistically...

 

It won't be much longer when the entire population dreams of the good old days before the invasion...

 

Then you will have to employ the B-52's and carpet bombing in the mow down pacify operation...

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Folks we aint that far off this week's high n the 3 week cycle bottoms ideally on 4/20. Could have been yesterday or next Tue.....I think we c new 2004 highs by Fri next week.

 

w'll c

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Once upon a time I was a soldier...which allows me to filter all the reports to arrive at a realistic picture...I could post stuff that is mind boggling and far beyond shocking...but I have no way to confirm those reports...the last post was constructed using Information from both sides...including CNN...I watch all the news channels I get, except FOX which I don't get...

 

I quit my job shortly after 911 to have enough time to sift through the massive amout of information I need to form a picture...I study about 8 hours a day...Sometimes I don't sleep for 48 hours...In the last 48 I've had maybe 5 hours...

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Here is what the morons at briefing.com write:

 

9:19AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Little reaction to the weaker than expected Mar Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization reports as traders head into the open...:

 

You would think that by now they would know that Globex stops trading at 9:15 AM

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

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Here's a new way to deal with reports of declining energy production:

 

Shell Officer Said to Have Ordered Report Destroyed

By JEFF GERTH and HEATHER TIMMONS

 

Published: April 16, 2004

 

WASHINGTON, April 15 - A senior executive at the Royal Dutch/Shell Group told a subordinate in an e-mail message in December that the employee's preliminary analysis of the company's oil and gas reserves problems was "dynamite" and "needs to be destroyed" because it was incomplete, a person involved in the company's internal inquiry said on Thursday.

 

 

Battleship Shell

Lately I've been pondering OPECs latest round of "cuts" and I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't so much cuts as they are a veiled reference to production peaking. All of the oil fields in the Middle East are geographicallly contained in an area about the size of Indiana. Horizontal drilling and water injection have been widely deployed for at least the last decade or more. Water injection in some fields has reached the point that they are now bringing up 9 times as much water as oil which greatly increases the cost of production when seperation is added in. One might note that North Sea production appears to be in decline. It is worth considering whether Russia may actually be carrrying the "swing" vote on oil these days.

 

One little thought about inflation. The news is everywhere it seems. Is it akin to having the raging Bull appear on the cover of Newsweek?

 

 

BINGO! :D

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