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B4 The Bell Thursday March 18, 2004


Guest yobob1

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Guest yobob1

Now isn't this special. Nothing like closing the barn door long after the horses have left and the barn is fully ablaze.

 

With a rising stock market, record low interest rates, and large gains in home value, some investors have taken out new mortgages, refinanced, or obtained line-of-credits secured by their homes for the specific purpose of investing in securities. The hope is that the investment will not only pay the mortgage, but also generate additional income. Unfortunately, it doesn't always work out that way. If you have already done this you are screwed, because the market is toast.

 

NASD is issuing this alert because we are concerned that investors who must rely on investment returns to make their mortgage payments could end up defaulting on their home loans if their investments decline and they are unable to meet their monthly mortgage payments. In short, investors who bet the ranch could lose it. And considering how many mortgage backs we already are holding we don't want you defaulting

 

This alert outlines the risks involved in playing the market with the equity in your home and offers advice to consider before making such an investment decision. Look we wanted you to send us every penny you could scrape up no matter who you had to rob to get it - and you did. Thanks! But now to cover our buts because we encouraged exactly what we're now advising against, we're putting out this public service announcement so we look like the kind, caring indivduals our advertising says we are. Plus our lawyers made us do this.

 

Betting the Ranch: Risking Your Home To Buy Securities

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ATTENTION:

 

Beano Alert

 

Soybeans trading at $10.0175 / bushel in pre-opening hours.

 

What's it mean?

 

A fresh 16-year high for beans, for one thing.

 

Also, that we seem to replaying the great bean bull market of 1973, when beans soared from $3.50 to a record $12.90.

 

"Beans in the teens" means hyperinflation at the door ...

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Guest yobob1

Be aware - not road kill. There are realtive pros trading on these forums and the newbies and inexperienced shouldn't play any games with stuff they aren't fully versed in.

 

Elsewhere in Chile the news was not so good as Codelco, the state owned miner, announced that its production was 4 per cent below plan. It is often the case that random events conspire to act in conjunction with market developments, in this case strong demand from China, to exacerbate price movements. Such a situation is pure heaven for hedge funds of course. Once they sense a trend developing they can move in very quickly, using derivatives, to establish significant positions that can quickly exaggerate incipient moves. Few people have a clear idea of the extent of the involvement of hedge funds in the commodity market, but some fairly large figures have been thrown around. One of the appeals of commodities to the hedge funds is its small size relative to equity and bond markets. That means a small amount of capital can have quite a significant effect. Even so, these figures will be substantially larger than those of private investors who might be drawn into the action.

 

Once hedge funds suspect that the most of the fun is over they will withdraw and move on to pastures new. But the problem of exiting small, illiquid trades can be substantial and can trigger quite sharp movements. On top of that other traders may try and take advantage of the difficulties being experienced by others and put on trades that make the process even more difficult.

 

So far that doesn?t seem to have happened too much, although the sell-off in nickel now looks to be substantial. Nickel ended last week at US$12,850 a tonne, almost US$3,000 a tonne lower than it was a month ago. Inventories are still supportive of the price, though, standing at only 14,000 tonnes. Contrast that with tin, a much smaller market, that has LME inventories of just over 12,000 tonnes. If hedge funds do start to try and exit commodities the rush for a quite a small door could be very entertaining.

 

Still Premature To Call Top Of Market For Hard Commodities.

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Guest yobob1

And a piece of good advice for the politically overwraught. Really we should take a cue from some other countries that limit the time for campaigning. The primary season should have a defintie end, and that usually defines who will be their respective parties candidate. Then we could have a quiet period with the party conventions held say 2 months before the election and campaigning allowed only between the convention and the election. Non presidential years should also be limited to maximum of 8 weeks (or less) of camaigning IMO. It certainly sounds more appealing than having a Representative elected to office only to find him immediately beginning his re-election campaign or having a President begining his campaign two years before the election.

 

..........I personally plan to ignore the campaign as much as possible. The coming of spring and then summer are much more important events as far as I'm concerned. I look forward to the dogwood blooms and the fresh green foliage. I look forward to pleasant times with the family, and I might even decide to tackle some of the weeds in my own yard.

 

The essence of America is neither politics nor government, but the private lives of Americans. Someone once said truly that the whole purpose of government is to ensure that families can gather at their evening meal in peace.

 

What makes America America are the people, their businesses, their labor, their families and their recreation. I have been in government and spent most of my life reporting on it, but all of the happy moments of my life occurred far removed from politics and government. Thanks primarily to the media, we have a really distorted view of the importance of government.

 

Whether it rains enough and at the right time and in the right places is much more important than any policy of the Department of Agriculture. Leading a healthy life does not require the National Institutes of Health. Whether we have a job and the means to provide for our families depends much more on the private economy than anything a president does or doesn't do.

 

The effects of government are more often than not negative, not positive. That began when the government went from guarding the coast and toting the mail to interfering in almost every aspect of people's lives. Certainly it is morally wrong to take money from Person A and give it to Person B for the purpose of getting Person B's vote. But income redistribution, which includes pork-barrel projects, has become so ingrained, I'm afraid it's irreversible.

 

At any rate, deciding between Kerry and Bush is not that difficult a decision for most of us, and so in the meantime, we should try to ignore the sound, the fury and the rhetoric of the campaign. Both men have been in public life long enough for people to judge their pasts, which is the only reliable guide to their future conduct. Neither man will change just because he occupies the White House. They will think and act as they always have.

 

So, until Election Day, don't forget to smell the daffodils.

 

How To Survive Political Campaigns

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G-P floats possible Green Bay job cuts

 

 

 

Gannett Wisconsin Newspapers

 

GREEN BAY ? Georgia-Pacific Corp. employees say the company is telling them about reducing the work force by 200 people through attrition, early retirements and, if necessary, layoffs.

 

The company has scheduled a press conference for Friday to discuss the subject of meetings it is having this week with Broadway Mill employees.

http://www.wisinfo.com/postcrescent/news/a..._15283869.shtml

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Guest yobob1

One final thought before I hand off to the traders. While it is certainly expected that one would be vocally enthusiastic about our own investments, we should be clear that we are not encouraging others to hop on board in order to further our gains only to exit those positions while those we encouraged to join in are left wondering when they should exit. I would suggest a timely exit notice from the enthusiastic might be appropriate.

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Stocks futures suggest weak open

Microsoft dips below $25 mark for first time in 4 months

 

By Emily Church, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 7:41 AM ET March 18, 2004

LONDON (CBS.MW) - Early futures activity suggested stocks would stumble out of the gate Thursday as the failure of Microsoft to reach a settlement with European antitrust regulators weighed on sentiment.

 

U.S. stock futures sag as Microsoft falls to 4-mo. low

Microsoft faces fine, Europe antitrust settlement talks

Weakness in European bourses also provided a negative backdrop.

 

http://aolpf5.marketwatch.com/news/story.a...7D&siteid=aolpf

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Yobob1,

Thanks for the great charts to start off the morning.

Those are exactly the first things I look for at the start of the day.

Guess you already knew that, huh? LOL

 

 

 

Sherlock

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One final thought before I hand off to the traders. While it is certainly expected that one would be vocally enthusiastic about our own investments, we should be clear that we are not encouraging others to hop on board in order to further our gains only to exit those positions while those we encouraged to join in are left wondering when they should exit. I would suggest a timely exit notice from the enthusiastic might be appropriate.

Yobob

 

As always good thoughts.

The internet can be a very dangerous thing.

 

On another note;

 

Had a good friend call last night after being propositioned by a commodities broker on buying the EURO futures. Now this guys knowledge of the Mr market is suspect at best and next to zero when we are talking futures. I was shocked to hear this wolf in sheeps clothing suggested to him he would be totally protected with stops should things go the wrong way. My God! I tried to explain that someone holding long cattle futures a few months ago would disagree. He even went on to say the futures were safer than options on futures. :ph34r: :ph34r:

So now they are after the JPsixes to play the commodities game something noone should consider without a huge knowledge of trading and the risks. Anyone out there considering entering this lion pit please please reconsider unless you are comfortable with the risks. Commodities are a tough tough game that very few are able to profit from. You are playing a game with sharks that will eat you up and spit out the entrails to feed their young!

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