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Main Circuit Breaker


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Greed is not ego. This is all semantic bull anyway.

 

If your motivation for doing this isn't simply that you love it, then stop, and spend your time at something you do love. You'll be a lot happier and you will be serving the universe.

 

If doing this is making a mess of your life, click here.

Which totally reinforces the themes of the last two threads.

 

And my thanks for all those kind thoughts yesterday regarding my opening commentaries.

 

What Doc says is TRUTH. And I have a lot of admiration for a man who, although putting in very long hours every day to keep this ship flying, is willing to make a flat-out statement like this. 'Cause it's really not in his financial interest to come right out and say something which could have the potential to cause some of you to simply pack it in and leave.

 

His integrity is a shining example of being aligned with spirit and yet another reason why this place has become so special for me.

 

As I've remarked before, I myself have been involved in the market since the late sixties, almost as long as Doc, and as I shared yesterday, despite my long-standing intellectual fascination with it, I've had my moments.

 

There have been times that I've been so discouraged I was left wondering why I was even continuing to do this. There have been times that I was brought right to the edge of the precipice and looked straight down and saw nothing but a bottomless abyss.

 

And very often what brought these times to pass was my attempting to do things in the market that were in conflict with my personality. And then continuing to do them despite the warning signs (consistent loss of capital, stressing myself and my mate out emotionally, etc.) and despite the fact that the definition of insanity is doing something again and again and again and expecting the outcome to change.

 

The only reason I'm still here to relate all of the above (which, I trust, is now completely past tense) is that there always did come a point where what I call my main circuit breaker (something I believe I've talked about before), my ultimate safety net, executed a disconnect and I would then cease all activity. And simply observe, sometimes for many months without doing anything. None of this "gotta make up my losses as fast as possible" stuff.

 

I just hung out, stayed real cool, observed, learned as much as possible from my mistakes, and waited very patiently for the proper time (both internally as well as externally) to resume operations. As a result, despite those setbacks, I always lived to fight another day. And I ultimately learned the value of making haste slowly.

 

I'm sure the veterans here can relate to what I've just shared. It is my hope that this will be of value to at least some of you newer and less experienced folks in helping you avoid needless trauma and grief while participating in this ongoing financial saga.

 

an2.gifAnd Happy Anniversary to SupplySider, who joined our community one year ago today.

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Thanks to Rayok and Vesselin. I've bypassed MSN Messenger (using Trillian) and Microsoft Explorer (now using Opera). Both appear to be awesome so far.

 

The US Dollar

intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=15&a=2&v.gif

Credit: http://quotes.ino.com

 

Gold

middlechart.chart?iInd0=na&iInd1=na&iInd2=na&sSymbol=GLD.FX1&.gif

Credit: http://cdchart.innovative-software.com

 

NDX futures (delayed)

1040995646020?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=CME:ND03H&Interval=24:255&Permission=154714&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=STOC&Param1=26&Param2=18&Param3=&FontSize=10.gif

Credit: http://www.livecharts.com

 

SPX futures (delayed)

1040995646020?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=CME:SP03H&Interval=24:255&Permission=154714&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=STOC&Param1=26&Param2=18&Param3=&FontSize=10.gif

Credit: http://www.livecharts.com

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Good morning and good stool to all.

 

After looking at the charts last night and your Stoolwethers this morning, I am beginning to suspect that we may be stuck with an endless shallow downtrend, with occasional pops, for months.

 

Ugly. I hope I'm wrong. Everyone wants resolution, but we may not get it. Today's a key day. If we don't see the beginnings of a downdraft this afternoon, we may have a long wait.

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SG updates the changing times and waves

 

SG believes we are merely in one of those "Expanded flats" that the E wavers, better experts than myself, discuss on ocassion.

 

Sometimes these are called ABC x ABC x type waves. Doc calls them SWUP's....

 

Here is how I see it though. Wed high intra-day print of 24.84 (or .86 I dont remember) on the Q's was swiftly reversed, and a minuette wave 3 began to unfold.

 

The first wave was steep bottoming at 23.90 yesterday morning. The 2nd mini wave within this unfolding 3rd is a 50% retrace, and would put us around 24.37 as a topping point. We hit 24.35 yesterday. It could also project a tad higher to 24.48 (yes, again)

 

That qualifies based on yesterdays crazy action after the bottom, as an ABC x ABC x type of wave... which I abhor, but they do occur.

 

The other issue to realize, which god knows I've repeated ad nauseum on this forum all week long is:

 

The NDX has alot of congestion from Oct, Nov, and late December at the 975-980 area.... this is called "buying support", easy TA stuff having nothing to do with ewaves.... (Im not just an Ewave guy)

 

I expect this support to fall soon because we have been in a sideways distribution more or less this entire week.... and the air is about to be fully let out of this distribution shortly.

 

The next move will be sharply down, on high volume, and without much warning or time to get in....

 

So, dont be frustrated... this is part of the distribution that occurs in a congested area for the market. The same can be said for the DOW and the SPY for that matter..... all at critical support levels.

 

ALL INDICES WILL FALL THROUGH THESE LEVELS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DECLINE TO THE OCTOBER LOWS AND THEN BELOW AFTER THAT

 

I dont mince words... but I do keep my shorts on

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I knew something was going on with this stock- had it on radar

 

SCIO- up 8.61 pre mkt

 

 

- WSJ (SCIO) 34.69: The Wall Street Journal reports that JNJ is in advanced discussions to buy SCIO for about $2 bln, or $45 per share; negotiations between the two co's have been progressing for several weeks, but no deal has been reached and another bidder could still emerge.

 

Good morning everyone. Best wishes for a good day. I still have my short positions and my gold stocks (Grrr...)

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One other interesting news anectdote

 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac head is reliquished by Bush, a former Clinton guy.

 

Guess who they replace the guy with?

 

The guy who was in charge of the worlds largest derivative hedge fund on earth (JP Morgan)....

 

now thats a good call.

 

Other interesting notes: The lowering of reserve requirement for insurance carriers in Europe the other day... just like Uncle Al lowering the reserve requirements for the US banks by way of dropping the discount rate etc.

 

It oughta warn ya that all is not well in financial services land. The fact that reserve requirements are being lowered is a VERY BAD omen for the markets to come. Yet, many mutual fund mismanagers have LARGE holdings of financial services and insurance companies on their fund holdings allocations.

 

This is all setting up for one very HUGE drop in the Spiders to come when these all finally unravel... and a huge liquidation of mutual funds by the public... putting yet more pressure on these shares etc.

 

The liquidity trap for small cap funds is also about to hit very hard.

 

Bears should sleep in their caves holding their shorts and stop worrying about the daily distributions. What we are seeing is massive money flow out.... and a near term plunge on the horizon.

 

that 6% down day is coming...

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I heard an anal cyst earlier this week saying the jobs number would be wildly distorted due to the lack of hiring during the xmas season, or something along those lines... he said it would look bullish on face, but really is a non-event number.

 

As I always say, the news is noise... reactions are only short term... then the reality comes back in quickly.

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