Hiding Bear Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Welcome to B4 the Bell! There was great discussion on many topics this weakend on B4 the Bell. Tanks to all contributors and to Doc for bringing us this forum. Despite the media telling us on full blast last Friday that high gasoline prices in the US are nothing to worry about, the obvious is becoming apparent: Many Feeling Pinch After Newest Surge in U.S. Fuel Prices Over the last six months, as fuel prices shot up to record highs, many Americans seemed to be coping with little difficulty, helped by a resurgent economy and low interest rates. But the big numbers at the gasoline pump have begun to take a toll, judging by nearly two dozen interviews with consumers and businesses in Denver over the last week. A fair number of drivers shrugged off other oil-price spikes in recent years, and some can afford to do the same now, buying that sport utility vehicle or piling the family into the Winnebago for a drive to a national park, even with gasoline costing more than $2 a gallon. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/01/business/01PUMP.html?hp The House of Bush author who was the in the lead saying that the Saudis would come to the rescue of GWB before the election has more to say about the implications of 9/11: The Great Escape By CRAIG UNGER Americans who think the 9/11 commission is going to answer all the crucial questions about the terrorist attacks are likely to be sorely disappointed ? especially if they're interested in the secret evacuation of Saudis by plane that began just after Sept. 11. Unfortunately, though, we may never know the real story. The investigative panel has already concluded that there is "no credible evidence that any chartered flights of Saudi Arabian nationals departed the United States before the reopening of national airspace." But the real point is that there were still some restrictions on American airspace when the Saudi flights began. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/01/opinion/01UNGE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 If the price of oil can spike $1.50 as the result of an attack on a residential compound, just imagine the size of the increase that might result from an attack on a Saudi oil facility (or a series of coordinated attacks). Most perceive this to be inevitable, particularly given the relative "success" of this attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 At some point in the near future the nation will be totally consumed with worry about higher oil prices(National Energy Emergency) and all other problems will have paled into insignificance. Prisoner abuse,WMD's,Cheney rip-offs,911 investigation etcetc.All forgotten. And then as if by the will of Allah--God or his highness GW the oil prices will do a Niagara instead of a Viagra and all will be well with the world in Oct/Nov 04.Count on it. Edit:Don't count on anything if the the real executive body has decided that GW is a liability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 If the price of oil can spike $1.50 as the result of an attack on a residential compound, just imagine the size of the increase that might result from an attack on a Saudi oil facility (or a series of coordinated attacks). Most perceive this to be inevitable, particularly given the relative "success" of this attack. Saudis booked 3-tankers and the vlcc are jumping for joy. Geo-plitical developements in Venezuela are to be watched. Gold is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 If the price of oil can spike $1.50 as the result of an attack on a residential compound, just imagine the size of the increase that might result from an attack on a Saudi oil facility (or a series of coordinated attacks). Most perceive this to be inevitable, particularly given the relative "success" of this attack. On OIL exactly Plunger Looks like you guys were busy over the weekend. Lots of catching up to do. My past studies have concentrated on intermarket TA. It would seem we have a perfect storm brewing if history is any guide. All the ducks are lining up in a row. The CRB after its recent breather is only 3% of the highs and on the way back UP. The dollar has resumed its journey to the basement breaking out of its channel to the downside and now only about 3% off the lows. The 10 year yield after the recent rocket ride from 3.6 to 4.9ish has retraced to 4.6% but again looks to be headed towards the path of least resistance UP. Gold which is a function of the US dollar was attacked with the strength of the dollar but now is recovering nicely and challenging 400 once again. The final piece in the puzzle is oil and look what it is doing this morning. As I have been ranting over the last few months illegal interference has infected ALL markets like never before. They are desperately trying to hold the equity averages at lofty heights. History says, commodities, the dollar, the bond, gold and oil are screaming... SELL stocks! THE PARALLELS TO 1987 ARE ERIE. Manipulation will not overcome intermarket relationships only temporarily delay them. I spent the weekend reviewing and researching. My conclusions.... I have never been so bearish. I am reestablishing positions and will be holding unless the matrix changes the laws of gravity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Today is the day that the point of recognition will be reached regarding interest rates. All of the bets regarding the inevitability of the FED increasing interest rates will come unwound. Talk will turn to the fact that higher oil prices have already served as a tightening...and will continue to do so. Watch the interest sensitive stuff to see which way the wind is going to blow. If the net of this situation is sustained (artificially) low interest rates combined with ever-increasing oil prices, gold should blast off. The cost of gas is killing the consumer...right here, right now. They HAVE TO stuff the Ten Year Yield back down to the bottom of the channel. Can they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 A fine job of underestimating president Bush . Nothing has changed in the last 4 yrs. Handwringers and second guessers are not in short supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Today is the day that the point of recognition will be reached regarding interest rates. All of the bets regarding the inevitability of the FED increasing interest rates will come unwound. Talk will turn to the fact that higher oil prices have already served as a tightening...and will continue to do so. Watch the interest sensitive stuff to see which way the wind is going to blow. If the net of this situation is sustained (artificially) low interest rates combined with ever-increasing oil prices, gold should blast off. The cost of gas is killing the consumer...right here, right now. They HAVE TO stuff the Ten Year Yield back down to the bottom of the channel. Can they? There is that probability. I haven't run the numbers. We could very easily go the Japanese route but the banks would suffer carrying negative yiels assets on the books until FED bought them at discount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 The cost of gas is killing the consumer...right here, right now. They HAVE TO stuff the Ten Year Yield back down to the bottom of the channel. Can they? Not in California. This weekend, I've never seen so many brand new trucks pulling toy trailers. Also, a record number of RV's stacked with bicycles, watercraft, some towing another car behind it. People are completely unfazed by high oil prices. I doubt they will make a dent until oil gets over $50. Way too many 24-year old kids at the motocross track this weekend with their brand new Ford F-350 crew cabs with $10,000 lift kits and $3,000 wheels and tires. And most of these were equipped with DVD players, custom stereos, etc. And never mind the top of the line $7,000 motorcycle and $900 in riding gear..... I spoke with at least 20 of these guys yesterday. Not one comment on gas prices. .... It was surreal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 The cost of gas is killing the consumer...right here, right now. They HAVE TO stuff the Ten Year Yield back down to the bottom of the channel. Can they? Not in California. This weekend, I've never seen so many brand new trucks pulling toy trailers. Also, a record number of RV's stacked with bicycles, watercraft, some towing another car behind it. People are completely unfazed by high oil prices. I doubt they will make a dent until oil gets over $50. Way too many 24-year old kids at the motocross track this weekend with their brand new Ford F-350 crew cabs with $10,000 lift kits and $3,000 wheels and tires. And most of these were equipped with DVD players, custom stereos, etc. And never mind the top of the line $7,000 motorcycle and $900 in riding gear..... I spoke with at least 20 of these guys yesterday. Not one comment on gas prices. .... It was surreal... amen! and not any talk about saving fuel burn baby burn like there ain't no tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Hopefully gold will break through 400 and never look back. I believe the CRB {futures} is not finished..More work to do on the upside. The CRB is key. Until it reverses down for the long term, bonds stay weak and equities are extremely vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Funny how we got 9 down days in a row in Fear. Yet the stock market NEVER goes down 9 days in a row.... .................. Alexis has a suntan. Must have been out at the Hamptons. Probably some "Fixed Income" specialist was riding her like a beast all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 i am expecting a solid move down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Easy to understand why CAL consumers are still spending as though they are house-rich and borrowing against it to spend beyond their means. They are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Morning Crew- Today we go Down as the Trend re asserts itself-Helmets on, Buckle up, window at the Bell for 75 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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