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IDS World Markets Fri 7th January 05


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Bloomberg projecting 175,000 jobs / 5.4% unemployment. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.

 

Question for fxfox: German unemployment reached a 4-year high. What's it 'feel' like in the street -- recession coming?

 

I'll take over for $5, Monty. Fewer seasonal retail workers hired in Nov, Dec will likely skew the number up. Govt math:

 

Fewer hired = fewer layoffs = Job Creation

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A Doleful Tale

More Woe On The Way?

 

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Hourly earnings up only +0.1% ... UH OH ... that's really weak.

 

Problem with these in-line employment numbers is that they justify the continued "removal of accommodation at a pace that is likely to be measured."

 

Translation: another rate hike on Feb. 2nd.

 

Isn't that already priced in ?

Yes. There's no surprise in this data (such as a DROP in jobs) to make them back off from the rate hike program.

 

So, as usual, the Fed is likely to overshoot. They will tighten until something breaks.

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