FeedFool Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 oil price should hold at $40 then a base building will happen meanwhile Gold will do just fine. It seems like a rotation game being played. What does it mean for your golden shares?? What do those crooks wants from you??? One should be looking to move money away from gold in January. Do your own R&D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Is anyone bullish on the Japanese stuff?? Will the rise be to fast and furious??? Another Dead Cat???? Do Your Own R&D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 This is a quote from Steve Todd of Todd Maket Forecast:"We will also show a very interesting chart of the 150 day moving average of the CBOE put call ratio. As you know, contrary opinion says that people tend to get bearish at market bottoms and right now this indicator says that traders are the most negative since late 1994 just before the start of a massive upmove. Our advice? Don?t short this market". Would someone please explain to me what this guy is seeing that I cannot? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Same as what Mr market timer Tim Ord was claiming yesterday... "Well, a friend of mine called Tim Ord's hotline right before the close. Ord predicted that the S & P and the Nasdaq would gap up to new 2-year highs within days Tim Ord is ordsome!! 4th best market timer on the broad market and No 1 on the gold market"... IMHO Market gurus get too much respect. Doing your own DD has for the most part lost its appeal. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I agree. I like Ord's work, but have to say that of all the anal cysts I've read or followed, none has held a candle to our Doc for honesty, accuracy or consistency. He's my friend, but before that, he was only the best market technician I'd seen. You can learn much about your TA by following his, because his adaptation of Hurst's method is so consistent and accurate. Best of all, as it is based on multiple cycles, you know which calls are more likely to succeed than others in your own particular timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Crude drops 13 bucks, yet Feb Gold.......... $457 all who are short gold beware, $500 in blink of an eye <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Ever get amazed that it's a metal that happens to be yellow? Yellow! A yellow metal. Not painted. Through n through. And dense. Heavy. Very rare, too, I hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Good morning! And tanks to GF for the kind words. Yes, I am proud to say that you are my friend and vice versa! Tigger- fine, fine work on the putzcall. Which brings me again, to the issue of the heavy short position by the commercials. "Commercials", is shorthand for Commercial Hedgers. To be classified a Commercial Hedger, it means your primary business is in the underlying. If the commercials are heavily short the futures, then by definition, they are also heavily LONG the underlying. There is NO WAY to know if this is bearish or bullish unless you know what their net position it. Since we don't know that and can't know it, then there's no point, is there? We can never hang our hats on sentiment indicators, especially those which are useless like the index skewed Put/Call, or the COT, because we have no idea what the net position is. Ditto for the NYSE member and specialist short sale ratios. That one is especially useless, first because the exchange withholds the data from the public for two weeks after the fact, and second, most importantly, because every NYSE member and specialist is also part of an enormous hedging operation. The Specialist firms are also making markets in options, and hedging in the futures. How in the world can we know whether their net hedged position are tilted long, short , or neutral? We can't. I have found, at times in my daily work using cycle band analysis, that the VIX is of some limited use in confirming a situation already indicated by price indicators, but on a stand along basis? Useless. The best means of telling where you are in the short term, interemediate term, and longer term in the market, is by using a broad time spectrum of strictly price based indicators. You don't need anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Brown One -- Chenron, Ken Lei? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Sorry, Foxie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Butterfield, will do...Maureen has written some good stuff...I'll check it out.. As for holidays, It's a real sore spot for me...this year I'm headed to Ohio for 4 days and dread it. My inlaws borker has totally screwed my wifes parents out of greed for "His" own money under mamagement as they are now stuck with two houses with two mortgages near Columbus yet they have a sheetload of money to pay off all debt....Columbus is a ghost town...Lucent gone...Dow Chemical...gone..and in Newark..Kaiser....a flickering flame of what it was.... Worst part is they are so far to right ( almost Hari Krishna like ) they have no left hand....I ain't looking forward to it and am depressed cause my moms getting up in age and feel I should be with her after my dad just passed...but, in my wifes defense, her 31 year old sister is one year post cancer and she's gonna be there so I can understand. That one scares me even more and I love my wife too much to battle on that issue... Odd thing is my wife and I are like peas in pod in our beliefs politcally and lean directly down the center. If her parents knew who she voted for they'd sheet.... Shes a social worker who's seen the dark side beyond what I'll ever know as she used to work for DCFS in Illinois. The stories she told me after work were horrid. Lot's of visits to the projects changes ones views on the world. Ag <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Ag If I had 10% of your writing talent I would be doing it for a living. And thanks for bringing some humanity into the fold. Sometimes our lives become so overwhelmed with this monster, the market, we can lose sight of what is really important. You obviously have not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 link <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I thought foreign holdings were decreasing. Not according to this.. Doc? HB? http://www.bullandbearwise.com/SOMAForeignChart.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 oil price should hold at $40 then a base building will happen meanwhile Gold will do just fine. It seems like a rotation game being played. What does it mean for your golden shares?? What do those crooks wants from you??? One should be looking to move money away from gold in January. Do your own R&D <{POST_SNAPBACK}> FF I agree Crude should hold the 40-42 level. Feel better that I agree with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirac Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 "Alice in BONDer land", the title of the following commentary http://www.safehaven.com/article-2298.htm Which dovetails nicely with Contrary Investors latest on inflation building pressures http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm So...we 'should' have raising rates...then what? Or we have a US currency collapse? Don't think it matters to me which one, but if both happen simultaneously...oooo doggy. 30 yr bonds attractive @ 5%? Under these conditions? One could think of increment changes in 5's, like 10, 15, 20% if things get ugly.! Watch bonds go to 3% just to tick me off. (the Drano effect) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Alright folks! Please give me all the feedback you can on these three charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Time to go short gold and long the miners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest libertas Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Since we don't know that and can't know it, then there's no point, is there? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Well Doc, you can believe what you want. I posted the output of a pretty good trading system based on the COT commercials that has worked well in real time. I won't post it again, but the fact is I don't care what their net position is. I do care what their futures position is, because it has been a pretty reliable indicator, when interpreted correctly, as to future market direction. The system only makes two or three trades a year so it is not to everyone's taste and certainly cannot be used as a short-term trading indicator. Nor is it 100% reliable, drawdown-free or any part or portion of the Holy Grail. But there is information in the COT. I believe it because it makes money, and has done so for many years, and I really don't care why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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