Metamucil Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Nice reversal in many miners today. BGO still looking bullish as hell. Energy still very bullish: INTC looks like it may blow thru the 200dEMA, out of an inverted hunchback. I'm very long VTSS, since 2 days ago. The broads are in wave 5 up...to the .618 retracement (~1254 spx), the most irrationally exuberant and manic terminus to this madness. PnF target for buck is the high 70s. POG~480. The next shorting opportunity must be confirmed by a >6% drop in BPs and summations must roll....otherwise it is generally very tough. Bear bets are still quite big, such as Nova/Ursa ratio (~.3) and the P/C ratio (MA), as noted above. However, it is interesting to watch the COTs getting shorter, each week. Have a great weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Close: Speaking to a positive bias that has swept the market over the past month, stocks finished with slight gains today despite a softer than expected November employment report... A strong November ISM Services Index (61.3 versus expectations of 58.5), a fourth consecutive drop in the price of crude oil (to $42.54/bbl), and an encouraging mid-quarter update from Intel (INTC 24.03 +1.32) all helped keep the indices above the unchanged mark... The world's largest semiconductor company raised its Q4 (Dec) revenues outlook to $9.3-9.5 bln from $8.6-9.2 bln and spoke to higher than average seasonal patterns in its quarter... This lit a fire under the semiconductor sector, and translated into gains for most of the tech group... Buying interest across the rest of the market, however, was rather tepid owing in part to the overhang of the jobs data... November nonfarm payrolls rose 112K and fell short of the consensus expectation of 200K...Hourly earnings also checked in at 0.1% (consensus of 0.3%) and the average work week was 33.7 hours (consensus of 33.8 hours)... ========================= Ags: A most incisive and erudite opening. Many tanks! Sorry to pout the drivel above on the same thread, but I've been remiss posting the daily "Barfing.com Adjective Laden Nonsense Bullshit Which Could Be Written By A Sixth-Grader". Ain't it da truth! Well I say keep posting it, and let's rip the shit out of 'em! Maybe somebody will notice. We should all take turns spoofing their garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Crude drops 13 bucks, yet Feb Gold.......... $457 all who are short gold beware, $500 in blink of an eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 oohhh....shorty....pretty! metamucil's chart showing energy still in a bull is interesting. his stuff is always so easy to read too! and despite all the yammering gushing headlines about "oil dropped for a FOURTH straight day!"....I notice that the delta 'tween open and close was only 12 cents might be puttin' in a bottom here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 "Oh My God, it's halted at $532, limit up +75, and when it re-opens it's indicated lock up again bid at $607, NO OFFERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" "Relax, man, we had the stop-limit to cover at 501, remember?" "What did you say?" "Stop-limit at 501, man." "You mean *STOP*, right?" "Stop, Stop-Limit, whatever." "I told you to place a STOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" "What the hell is wrong with you?" "You jackass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 <Reuters>Dec. 24, 2004 "A rash of shocking suicides in New York and Chicago over the last week is now being blamed on the surprise announcement by China that it had cornered the physical gold market. Apparently some speculators were trapped 'short' in bets that the gold price would fall, and were wiped out when it soared to over $2,000 per ounce following the Chinese revelation. Rumors persist that Citicorp and J.P. Morgan are in financial trouble although there has been no comment from either bank." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 A startling story on where those derivatives actully do get offloaded to, apparently this counterparty will not be meeting their side of the negotiated transaction... China Aviation Oil Losses Investigated By JAKE LLOYD-SMITH The Associated Press Friday, December 3, 2004; 6:08 AM SINGAPORE - Criminal investigators have launched a probe into massive losses announced earlier this week by the main supplier of jet fuel to China, the Singapore Exchange and central bank said Friday. "We understand that the Commercial Affairs Department has commenced investigations," the exchange said in a statement. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, the city-state's central bank, confirmed the involvement of the department, which investigates white-collar crime. China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp. announced late Tuesday that it had lost US$550 million (euro414 million) on derivatives trading and was seeking court protection from creditors. Trading of its shares was suspended on Monday. The first transactions made a profit, but the worldwide increase in oil prices in 2004 to record levels caught out China Aviation Oil's trading team. Instead of quitting the market and accepting losses of a few million US dollars, the company raised its bets until it was faced with losses that it could not meet. "Due to the Company's inability to pay, the Company's creditor-banks commended the forced closing of a number of derivative contracts," Chen said. "As a result, the potential losses that the Company had been facing were transformed into actual realized losses." China Aviation Oil Losses Investigated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirac Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 A good "Roach clip"...get's into the housing bubble and the lack of savings...but we already knew this-right? http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/diges...ri.html#anchor0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 This is a quote from Steve Todd of Todd Maket Forecast:"We will also show a very interesting chart of the 150 day moving average of the CBOE put call ratio. As you know, contrary opinion says that people tend to get bearish at market bottoms and right now this indicator says that traders are the most negative since late 1994 just before the start of a massive upmove. Our advice? Don?t short this market". Would someone please explain to me what this guy is seeing that I cannot? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> GTNWORSE, I have been using options data in my trading since the early days and have noticed some things about the CBOE trading that takes all the indicators I used to rely so heavily on and threw them out of the window last year. It all started in January 03. The CBOE p/c ratio now is just about worthless due to the fact that the CBOE is now basically an index shop, the majority of equity options are trading at the regionals, ISE and the AMEX. If the bulk of trading were index related it would certainly have a higher put bias as players hedge long exposure with SPX or OEX puts and do the opposite with short positions. Sure there are position trades, but the majority of index trades are used as a hedge. Since the regionals and the ISE have taken away the position trades and left the CBOE with an index bias, the CBOE p/c ratio has been turned upside down since last year. What I mean is this....take a chart of the $CPC, use the 21 day simple moving average setting and bollinger bands set to 120 days and 1 standard deviation. The sma travels in the channel and the peaks tended to correspond with the bottoms in the SPX very well. Pull up a chart and size it so you have the same time periods in both charts, say 3 years. I loved it as a turn indicator and helped me manage my positions very effectively for a long while. When the 21 dma was moving lower I was confident on the long side and as it moved to the bottom of the bollinger bands I would reduce exposure. Same thing going the other way with shorts. That chart kept me on the right side of the trade and made money so I used it religiously. Now however, the peaks in the sma tend to indicate tops like in early April and again in late May. Makes sense as people would do the most fervent index put buying when they were very, very long to hedge. So the contrarian aspect of CBOE data is now effectively worthless in my opinion. The 150 day moving average is far too slow to signal much of anything and was higher for the last four months than it is now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirac Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 I still don't understand why the boys and girls at The Street.com keep telling me bear stories while numbnutz is always on TV saying the exact opposite, but they don't like the chip sector for next year. It's overproduction don't you know... http://www.thestreet.com/tech/semis/10197181.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirac Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 Well you might think that Detroit is the home of Motor City Madness and that Michigan is the car capital of North America...think again... http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/02/news/inter...tario/index.htm Chew on this Mr. Goodwrench-Canada is taking over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 TOB; tanks -very- much for that excellent analysis of the P/C. on another subject, what did Intel know, and when did they know it? I can't help wondering if advance knowledge of the jobs-numbers led certain parties to collude with Intel in ginning up a bogus 4Q estimate....in order to overshadow and minimize the jobs-report negative-PR-effect.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 I still find the CBOE equity p/c quite useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 A startling story on where those derivatives actully do get offloaded to, apparently this counterparty will not be meeting their side of the negotiated transaction... China Aviation Oil Losses Investigated By JAKE LLOYD-SMITH The Associated Press Friday, December 3, 2004; 6:08 AM SINGAPORE - Criminal investigators have launched a probe into massive losses announced earlier this week by the main supplier of jet fuel to China, the Singapore Exchange and central bank said Friday. "We understand that the Commercial Affairs Department has commenced investigations," the exchange said in a statement. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, the city-state's central bank, confirmed the involvement of the department, which investigates white-collar crime. China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp. announced late Tuesday that it had lost US$550 million (euro414 million) on derivatives trading and was seeking court protection from creditors. Trading of its shares was suspended on Monday. The first transactions made a profit, but the worldwide increase in oil prices in 2004 to record levels caught out China Aviation Oil's trading team. Instead of quitting the market and accepting losses of a few million US dollars, the company raised its bets until it was faced with losses that it could not meet. "Due to the Company's inability to pay, the Company's creditor-banks commended the forced closing of a number of derivative contracts," Chen said. "As a result, the potential losses that the Company had been facing were transformed into actual realized losses." China Aviation Oil Losses Investigated <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Lucky for the media that the CEO's name is Chen cuz now they can dub it "CHENRON" and all we need is a CFO called Ken Lei to make the story complete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted December 4, 2004 Report Share Posted December 4, 2004 ToG: thanks for that great info on CBOE p/c ratio. I've been looking at a similar chart(but reversed c/p) on the Amsterdam index AEX.I'm not too good with this sort of stuff but the chart showed excess bullishness on July 1st with a c/p ratio peaking at 2. As the AEX moves in lockstep with the rest of the world and S&P--this might be a fair proxy for the big moves in broads intermediate time wise. At the moment the index hovers around c/p 1.3-1.5 and it seems that all that can be said is to follow the price trend whether up or down. This chart really seems to be a "too-many-people-on-this-side-of-boat" indicator! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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