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I always first analyze the intermediate term trend and it is w/o a doubt DOWN. No matter how hard I look I do not see anything that will change this fact for awhile. In fact, it is deteriorating daily. The market is very weak as any S/T pops are immediately met with sellers. Witness today's early morning blatant foolish nonsense, and Dec 2 and 16 one day wonders.

 

Short term anything goes, especially around this whacky time/season. But I don't see any evidence in the ST indicators that suggest a lasting, meaningful pop is imminent despite all the yack about OpEx, seasonality, right-shoulder, cycles, etc. As we trend lower pops will happen, its inevitable, but they will most likely vanish quickly b/c the IT trend is down and the market is incredibly weak. I'd regard all pops as "one day wonders" and use them to add shorts.

 

No way we go back to Dec 2 highs.

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Phew in a heat wave here...all the chooks lying around under the house looking half dead. How you holding out S4B?

 

The market here is looking more bullish than it has for the last few trading days. The index has moved up to the next line of resistance and attempting to break through, in fact it just has, let's see if it holds. The golds are holding firm if not exactly green. Looking at the DOW chart on signalwatch it seems to be on support so could be an attempted jam in the next session. Market here seems to be expecting some sort of upside. Nothing much to report really, back in wait mode.

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Doc said something very important.

 

He said that the Feed was buying and HOLDING securities??

 

Very important to note that the Feed is now monetizing futures contracts?

 

Or, they could be waiting for the market to go up on its own so that they can unload them again?

 

Boy, sure looks fishy to me. The BOJ announced they were going to do something similar and have already started. Our Feed does not announce anything except pumping up the money supply and now we find out that they are going to monetize futures contracts? Wow...what a way to pump the money supply. Give it right back to the Den Robber Wall Street Skumbags of yesteryear.

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Doc said something very important.

 

He said that the Feed was buying and HOLDING securities??

 

Very important to note that the Feed is now monetizing futures contracts?

 

Or, they could be waiting for the market to go up on its own so that they can unload them again?

 

Boy, sure looks fishy to me. The BOJ announced they were going to do something similar and have already started. Our Feed does not announce anything except pumping up the money supply and now we find out that they are going to monetize futures contracts? Wow...what a way to pump the money supply. Give it right back to the Den Robber Wall Street Skumbags of yesteryear.

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but I believe Doc means that the FEED is holding those securities through the Gang of 22, its 22 primary dealers. I'd be surprised if the FEEDeral (un)Reserve(d) Building is taking delivery of shares in MSFT and GE and Spoos and bonds, etc. They front the money to their 22 bonks, who do the buying when the repo $ is delivered, and then sell when it matures/expires.

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The way I see it, we hit a pretty major pivot point today at the lows, where I covered almost everything. I expect tomorrow to be violent, one way or the other. If we take out today's lows, and stay down tomorrow, then Bully is most likely dead, and the Bradley projection above could come to fruition. On the other hand, a strong move up above NDX 1050 would probably signal that the 13 week low is in. Should be interesting the next few daze. :D

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Tanks K, I'm stayin' short.

 

GTN,

 

mannfm11 types pretty well, His thoughts from pru bear:

 

I'm going to put my 2 cents in since I haven't said anything for awhile. This pullback looks suspiciously like the one before the final top last winter. I don't see a C wave in this mess, unless you can count the last rally as C and the minimal pullback from about 8800 to around 8300 last month as B. I don't have the top figures we made, but I will assume they were around 9050. That gives a double top in the Dow with Augusts high and a good sell signal in technical analysis. It gives a measurement of about 1850 for the rally move and as fast as the market went up, it didn't go up any faster than it went down.

 

I think the 20th of the month is a good turn day because it has been for about 2 years now, but it don't look like the corrective part of the rally has finished. Most big options players are delta hedged so I don't believe they really worry too much about settlement prices as long as they don't sustain a big move they cannot adjust going into it. The little guy is just waiting for the next card and the casino really couldn't care less.

 

I have felt we go to the 9300 area since I could tell this rally was going to last when it went through 7800 without weakness. What little market watching I have done has dealt with the tick, outside of watching the prices on the indexes. What I saw last week appeared to be a lot of public short selling against a lot of public buying. The market is supporting on fairly low ticks and a turn up in buying now will create a strong rally, as these public shorts have to cover once they become losers. The big hedges are going to need a top to reverse on and it is coming, as usual at the expense of the public.

 

What we have coming is a third wave and the bulls won't like that. Prices are going to fall and it really isn't going to take a lot of selling to make them fall because people just aren't going to be interested in buying. I believe there are a lot of people that would like to take some losses for tax reasons and the market just shut the door, with the idea to get out over 9K on the Dow. Getting back to the third wave, I doubt it should start out this slowly, as we are down about 700 points after a fairly long sell off. Of course I could be very wrong at this juncture.

 

There was a massive amount of stock changed hands on the last bottom and those that accumulated the stock down there are going to need some upward pressure, sustained to sell out and attempt to get short. Chances are they sold a lot of stock at the last top, but the rally didn't last long enough for them to change sides and I doubt to get off their longs. This market is now in the hands of the hedges not the public and not the Wall Street firms, which have run it so powerfully in the past. They have an idea what Wall Street will do as I believe Wall Street is going to try to keep this market up as long as it is profitable to them. The hedges will cooperate in getting the next rally going, but they will be what ends it. Maybe there won't be a next rally. I have my doubts because there is something missing to the structure that made up the move off the bottom.

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Spining tops are everywhere look at NVLS KLAC CHKP NVDA GNSS MXIM and the SOX itself. I will be looking for a down move in the early going followed by a reversal. This will provide a long side op IMHO.

 

Note on the SOX 291 is a 55% retracement of the 209 to 393 move. (301 is 50% and 278 is 62 % Drawn from 393 down). It is also 13 days from the 393 top.

 

I will be watching the volume out of the gate and the price action over the first hour to get a feel..... for going Dong on a bounce.

 

I posted last night on gold when you boys were jumping up and down about the spike overnight in the far east ..... thin mkt boys easy to shove the POG the way you want. The HUI must close above 155 for the up move to continue in the meant time it is either consolidating or distributing ( DUH) but really hard to determine which .... I lean to distribution myself based on my charts day counts and overall big picture analysis for whatever that is worth.

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I was surprised that the CB leading indicator was up.

This makes me worry that this market might not collapse as quickly as I would like.

 

But then I reminded myself that my economist friend makes some important additions/deletions to his leading indicators

- and not because he is a stopped clock bear - far from it.

 

"Five of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were stock prices, real money supply"

 

Take out the recent rise in stock prices (which I know my friend does) and I suspect the leading indicator would look decidely worse.

 

I was reading some commentary from Doug Henwood:

 

"This is still no ordinary business cycle. While the formal recession ended at the turn of the year, the recovery isn't visible in the job market - but in cars and housing, it's as if the recession never happened.

By some measures, the recession was mild. Consumption barely paused, and auto purchases - simulated by 0% financing - stayed remarkably strong. Housing, too, remained very strong. In typical recessions, cars and housing are hit hard; the unemployed cut back on big spending, and those afraid of becoming unemployed follow their example. Not this time".

 

And then I looked at a long term chart that tabulates annual growth in US retail spending. Talk about levitation. But the Emperor of Greed can only levitate retail spending for so long.

 

Sooner or later we will see our Naked Emperor, in all his glory.

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