cwd Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Can anyone confirm these rates?28% increase in 1 day. I can imagine all refinancing just came to a complete stop. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 The Game is Breaking Down- Professional Edition by Lee Adler, Wednesday, May 27, 2009, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit The Treasury market got bombed today in what could be turning into a crash. Yields soared in spite of near record levels of demand at today’s auctions. The problem clearly isn’t demand. It’s supply, and that problem will not be going away any time soon. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drwells Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Courtesy of Denninger: As a trade, this seems too easy to me. The Treasury has a ton of supply coming this week. Everyone knows it. FCBs are buying and even that isn't keeping yields down. So buy TNX and make money. Why wasn't this priced in more quickly? Who was taking the other side of this trade? The only thing I can come up with is that they were expecting the Fed to monetize a lot more of it, hence the dollar puking last week. Many tanks for any thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Then there was this bit of silliness today from Faber U.S. Inflation to Approach Zimbabwe Level, Faber Says http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=avgZDYM6mTFA Not unless wages go up too Mark. Who is going to buy gas at $100 a gallon and how many happy meals are going to be sold at $75? Anywho, because the dislocation is in the bond arena it's mostly invisible. Interesting times that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Courtesy of Denninger: As a trade, this seems too easy to me. The Treasury has a ton of supply coming this week. Everyone knows it. FCBs are buying and even that isn't keeping yields down. So buy TNX and make money. Why wasn't this priced in more quickly? Who was taking the other side of this trade? The only thing I can come up with is that they were expecting the Fed to monetize a lot more of it, hence the dollar puking last week. Many tanks for any thoughts. The bond market seems to be asking for QE II. They had better hope they don't get what they want or Jicklass just might be right about the metals going parabolic now. I am an extreme skeptic on that. I am short a big slug, for me, SRS, under 20 yesterday near the close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Ooops. I left out the Mortgage Apps update in the Fed Report. It has now been revised to include that section. Please revisit if you have already downloaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Ooops. I left out the Mortgage Apps update in the Fed Report. It has now been revised to include that section. Please revisit if you have already downloaded. What does the Treasury auction schedule look like for next week Doc? Obviously I was wrong thinking they could pull off a little rally this week once this weeks supply was eaten. Quite ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drwells Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 The bond market seems to be asking for QE II. They had better hope they don't get what they want or Jicklass just might be right about the metals going parabolic now. I am an extreme skeptic on that. I am short a big slug, for me, SRS, under 20 yesterday near the close. Thanks Jorma. I plan to hang on to my PMs in case all hell breaks loose, but it sounds like I can also stick some money in a short bond fund and leave it there for years. The game of "print money to suppress yields" seems to be running out of ammo at last. If anyone else has thoughts on such funds they would be much appreciated. Thanks to everyone and apologies for the basic questions Hm, after some searching it looks like I should clarify. By short bond fund, I meant one that shorts bonds, not one that invests in short-duration bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Nibbling at FAZ in the afterlife. Feels like the entire Stuff Market is starting to list over. Will build short positions steadily & quickly if so. Started yesterday. Out of all miners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Here is a mortgage rate chart I stole from Zero Hedge. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/2s10...cord.html#links The 2 year/ 10 year spread went to a record as well. TJ will love this breaking news story,The effect is finally being felt in stocks which are getting pounded. Amusingly, while yesterday Crapvision had a BREAKING NEWS: MARKET SURGES alert for 4 hours straight, for some odd reason the MARKET PLUNGES alert is nowhere to be found. SHOCKING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Radio Free Wall Street podcast now posted. I go solo on this one for about 32 minutes. Listen to free preview here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 What does the Treasury auction schedule look like for next week Doc? Obviously I was wrong thinking they could pull off a little rally this week once this weeks supply was eaten. Quite ominous. Just bills next week, including a 52 weeker to go along with the 13, 26, and 4 week. Then notes and bonds along with the bills the following week. Check out the chart on year to year tax receipts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Who is going to buy gas at $100 a gallon and how many happy meals are going to be sold at $75? No one, but it doesn't matter IMHO. The US imports it's stuff, so when the dollar goes down, prices must go up - demand is irrelevant. Mostly empty shelves with the few products that remain priced out of reach of almost everyone - that's the extreme outcome - but I've oversimplified I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lineup32 Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Bank of America quoting 5.5% standard conforming < (415K) @ 5.5% with 1 pt. for high FICO etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idrisb59 Posted May 27, 2009 Report Share Posted May 27, 2009 Saturn moved a degree .. new touch points 8620 - 8500 HOD 8490 8380 - 8260 LOD 8280 8140 - 8020 7900 - 7780 7660 - 7540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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