zensmoke Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa. I never said that TA is crap and cycles are crap. Holy cow zensmoke. Where in the world did you ever get that idea? I believe that TA, cycle analysis, and liquidity analysis, all go hand in hand. I believe that it is only possible to have an understanding of the whole scene by using all these tools. And for trading purposes, the only tool that is essential is TA. But you must understand how to use it. Cycle analysis is essential in knowing when to rely on trend following indicators and when to rely on cyclical indicators for the time frames you are trading. Even though great traders may not use cycle analysis per se, there is always a time element inherent in their analysis. After all, moving averages are all about trends and time cycles. That's all there is, and all that's needed to trade successfully. In strongly trending markets, short term cycle indicators will generate tons of false sell signals. That's no problem whatsoever if you know that longer term cycles are headed up. In that case, you follow the trend indicators and the longer term cycle indicators and pretty much ignore the shorter term sell signals. As in reading and understanding a book, context is all important in understanding how to read the charts. My apologies, Dr. Stool----bad week, bad month for me........I didn't mean to take it out on you.....I was just reacting to "nothing making sense to me" -- and yes, I don't have the experience or wisdom nor the time I need to make good analysis of the market like the the other traders on this board...........sorry----having a "bear" depression......"bear" PMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Stoolhouse Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 what was it? 475 million shares of FAZ traded today. Is that a lot? That sucker hit $13 intraday a couple of weeks ago on a bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 All bad news is being immediately squelched and buried. It doesn't matter. BAC needs another $50 billion? stock up. NO prob, stock up 17%!!!! Big Boyz are playing with the hundreds of billions they've received from their Fed money-honeys like Uncle Ben and Turbo Timmmmyyyyyy. This has been an amazing display so far. I'm guessing that when Obama announced that it was a good time to buy stocks that statement was made with a complete background plan and money backing to start this rally. Hats off to everyone who has profited enormously so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 BAC Bankrupt, choking on all the shit sandwiches they ate last year. Yet Lewis still has his job and tens of billions of taxpayer money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 Just another Bear Market rally....It still hurts... http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/ Here's the study I mentioned earlier this morning Crapvision about sentiment remaining typical of previous bear market rallies and NOT of bull market rallies. According to the sentiment index of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which tracks the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980, both of the last major (more than 25%) bear market rallies (Sep 2001 to Jan 2002 and Nov 08 to Jan 09), the HSNSI jumped 85.8 percentage points, and 62.4 percentage points respectively. That compared to ONLY 29.3 during the first 8 weeks of past BULL markets (not bear market rallies). Sentiment of the current market rally is 53.8, which is as high as thoe previous bear market rallies. Other sentiment indices, such as the American Association of Individual Investors shows that sentiment is at 24.1, which is similar to levels of those 2 bear market rallies (26.6 and 28.2), in contrast to ONLY 9.8 sentiment index in the first 8 weeks of bull markets. In simple english, sentiment is roughly 3x greater during bear market rallies than it is in bull markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 the price of a gallon of unleaded is steadily rising in the Bay Area. My local corner station was as low as $1.78 in December. Today the price is up again to $2.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 The Primary Dealer specialists and market makers have decided that they are going to crush the public and institutional shorts. Once they are done with that and have rebuilt their own short positions to the necessary levels, they will turn and re-crush the longs. Wash, rinse, repeat. As long as the Fed is providing the fuel, these guys will keep squeezing the vice tighter and tighter. They will get every last drop of bear blood. The Fed will decide when the game is over. And we don't have a vote. As I mentioned in IDS, in this kind of market my approach is to give greater weight to trend indicators and less weight to the ozzies until the market shows me that it really has stopped trending. 5 and 10 point pullbacks to the uptrend lines don't cut it, and very few traders have the nimbleness of finger to trade against the trend in that way. Unless you have learned how to be successful at countertrend trading, be prepared to get an education. I know that several of you have the ability and nerve to do it, but I suspect that most posters and most readers of this board do not. Yea, I'm more of a swing trader - not a day trader...and certainly not very nimble...I resemble that remark......I'll go to the sidelines and wait for the turn...too late to go to the dark side.....Most people who "overtrade" lose $$. Thanks for reminding me of the obvious Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 Just another Bear Market rally....It still hurts... <_> http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/ Here's the study I mentioned earlier this morning Crapvision about sentiment remaining typical of previous bear market rallies and NOT of bull market rallies. According to the sentiment index of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which tracks the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980, both of the last major (more than 25%) bear market rallies (Sep 2001 to Jan 2002 and Nov 08 to Jan 09), the HSNSI jumped 85.8 percentage points, and 62.4 percentage points respectively. That compared to ONLY 29.3 during the first 8 weeks of past BULL markets (not bear market rallies). Sentiment of the current market rally is 53.8, which is as high as thoe previous bear market rallies. Other sentiment indices, such as the American Association of Individual Investors shows that sentiment is at 24.1, which is similar to levels of those 2 bear market rallies (26.6 and 28.2), in contrast to ONLY 9.8 sentiment index in the first 8 weeks of bull markets. In simple english, sentiment is roughly 3x greater during bear market rallies than it is in bull markets. The only sentiment you should care about it is the price, specifically its direction. I fail to understand why so many people just want to argue with the market. There's nobody there to argue with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 The Primary Dealer specialists and market makers have decided that they are going to crush the public and institutional shorts. Once they are done with that and have rebuilt their own short positions to the necessary levels, they will turn and re-crush the longs. Wash, rinse, repeat. As long as the Fed is providing the fuel, these guys will keep squeezing the vice tighter and tighter. They will get every last drop of bear blood. The Fed will decide when the game is over. And we don't have a vote. As I mentioned in IDS, in this kind of market my approach is to give greater weight to trend indicators and less weight to the ozzies until the market shows me that it really has stopped trending. 5 and 10 point pullbacks to the uptrend lines don't cut it, and very few traders have the nimbleness of finger to trade against the trend in that way. Unless you have learned how to be successful at countertrend trading, be prepared to get an education. I know that several of you have the ability and nerve to do it, but I suspect that most posters and most readers of this board do not. Doc, Will the Fed allow the PDs to pull the plug as BHO's plan need a strong market to keep the sheple's confidence up. What you are describing is a riigged market by the government with the PDs and insiders making the coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 Yea, I'm more of a swing trader - not a day trader...and certainly not very nimble...I resemble that remark......I'll go to the sidelines and wait for the turn...too late to go to the dark side.....Most people who "overtrade" lose $$. Thanks for reminding me of the obvious Doc. I saw a Larry Williams webcast Saturday and his cycle work is calling for a top the last week in May through the first week in June. He has pretty good track record which KW will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byhiselo Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 The Primary Dealer specialists and market makers have decided that they are going to crush the public and institutional shorts. Once they are done with that and have rebuilt their own short positions to the necessary levels, they will turn and re-crush the longs. Wash, rinse, repeat. ...They will get every last drop of bear blood. word, same as it ever was counter trend trading is one tough nut...take me to the river and let me be water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 BAC 13 handle in the afterlife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 A new podcast has been posted at Radio Free Wall Street with Aaron Krowne and me. Listen to a free 13 minute excerpt in the media player below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byhiselo Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 I saw a Larry Williams webcast Saturday and his cycle work is calling for a top the last week in May through the first week in June. He has pretty good track record which KW will verify. bradley sez the same, use at your own risk: http://www.marketclues.net/cgi-bin/myclues...atepartners.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4shzl Posted May 6, 2009 Report Share Posted May 6, 2009 The Primary Dealer specialists and market makers have decided that they are going to crush the public and institutional shorts. Once they are done with that and have rebuilt their own short positions to the necessary levels, they will turn and re-crush the longs. Wash, rinse, repeat. As long as the Fed is providing the fuel, these guys will keep squeezing the vice tighter and tighter. They will get every last drop of bear blood. The Fed will decide when the game is over. And we don't have a vote. As I mentioned in IDS, in this kind of market my approach is to give greater weight to trend indicators and less weight to the ozzies until the market shows me that it really has stopped trending. 5 and 10 point pullbacks to the uptrend lines don't cut it, and very few traders have the nimbleness of finger to trade against the trend in that way. Unless you have learned how to be successful at countertrend trading, be prepared to get an education. I know that several of you have the ability and nerve to do it, but I suspect that most posters and most readers of this board do not. The NazQuack and the aSSnPee are now clearly above their 31 December levels; the Sow should follow in short order. The name of the game will be to hold them there (or higher) until 30 June when the fiscal year ends for most public pension funds. Once again, >75K ES contracts traded between 3:59 and 4:01PM ET today -- there's a message in this pattern, and I really don't think it's that difficult to interpret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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