Fed Says It's Still Worried About Deflation

[Pretzel Logic]

Hey, Pretzel

 

Are you moving from WA for the same reason KW did? Because the sun is a dim and distant memory for WA residents?

 

I've only been in WA for a year, and yeah, I pretty much hate it. The landscape is nice, but the climate blows dog. Plus, I have a life-long love affair with the ocean, and while we have ocean here, it's so incredibly freezing cold that even in the Summer that you can't do more than dip your toes in it (not for long, though! unless you like frostbite). It doesn't really compute when you're sweating at the beach on an 85 degree day and the ocean is only 48 degrees.

 

I first went to Maui about 3 years ago and I absolutely fell in love w/ the place. 80 degree CRYSTAL clear water perfect for snorkeling/diving, mountains (you pass through 7 different climate zones just on the drive up Haleakala), views of neighboring islands, incredible sunsets, rainforests, etc..

 

Here's a few pics from various trips:

 

 

 

[Pretzel Logic]

I'm guessing Pretzel has discovered the absolute value of Maui Wowie for health and happiness and is a seeker of same.

 

 

 

Studies have suggested that medical marijuana seeds can reduce the pain of a condition called chronic pain syndrome in which is when a burning sensation occurs and touch can feel like an injury.

 

Goofball. Nope, don't touch the stuff (not since college, anyway, and I swear I didn't inhale!). Hell, these days, I'm practically a teetotaller.

[kiwibear]

I read somewhere yesterday that only 3% of investors are bullish on treasuries. This compared with approx 35% or so for gold, 57% for oil and 65% or thereabouts for equities.

 

I have been happily short the 30year futures from 129 but I got out yesterday, partly because of the size of the prior 2 day move. Being part of a 97% consensus in the markets seriously scares me so I'm going to look at long opportunities for awhile.

 

I am now thinking that the consensus view on inflation being "just around the corner" is wrong wrong wrong, and that there truly will be a prolonged deflation.

 

I am short the indices, looking to add significantly when I see some downside momentum, at which point I'll also add some long exposure to treasuries. If there is a long deflation, treasuries will be primed for the mother of all short squeezes.

 

Eventually I'll go short them, but it may be 12 months too early to do it now.

 

Still long PMs as I think they'll do well in deflation and behave more and mopre like superior currencies.

 

 

That's my thesis for the next 12 months or so.

 

FWIW.