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Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur


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Interesting. I remember Sept.18, 2008 vividly. Lehman’s debt was causing MMMF’s to break the buck. On this Thursday morning, it was reported that there were over $800b sell orders in MMMF. Of course, the money wasn’t there, and this market was about to collapse. The Fed stepped-in and guaranteed the deposits, ending the panic. I thought of this event as the single most scary point in time I could ever remember. The financial system would have collapsed if not for the insurance. The stock market plummeted 30% the following Monday over the next 4 weeks.

 

Now, exactly 1 year later, they have withdrawn the insurance. While things may function relatively smoothly without the insurance, I can’t help but be just a little apprehensive. I guess if another mass exodus starts, they could just put the insurance back in place. Let’s see what happens this week. :unsure:

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration said Thursday that a program used to guarantee as much as $3 trillion in money market mutual fund assets will end on schedule next week.

The program, which will be closed down on Sept. 18, had no direct cost to taxpayers and earned more than $1 billion in fees paid by the mutual fund industry, according to the Treasury Department.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Money-market...453001.html?x=0

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Dr. Harbinger looks extremely vulnerable here....multiple longer time frames looking ready for the rollover, after tagging big time resistance....

 

4 hour chart has just entered the crash window, with triple bottom trendline about to give way....

 

This is about as fully synchronous as it gets...sell all rallies as long as price stays below 2.90....

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Interesting. I remember Sept.18, 2008 vividly. Lehman’s debt was causing MMMF’s to break the buck. On this Thursday morning, it was reported that there were over $800b sell orders in MMMF. Of course, the money wasn’t there, and this market was about to collapse. The Fed stepped-in and guaranteed the deposits, ending the panic. I thought of this event as the single most scary point in time I could ever remember. The financial system would have collapsed if not for the insurance. The stock market plummeted 30% the following Monday over the next 4 weeks.

 

Now, exactly 1 year later, they have withdrawn the insurance. While things may function relatively smoothly without the insurance, I can’t help but be just a little apprehensive. I guess if another mass exodus starts, they could just put the insurance back in place. Let’s see what happens this week. :unsure:

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration said Thursday that a program used to guarantee as much as $3 trillion in money market mutual fund assets will end on schedule next week.

The program, which will be closed down on Sept. 18, had no direct cost to taxpayers and earned more than $1 billion in fees paid by the mutual fund industry, according to the Treasury Department.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Money-market...453001.html?x=0

 

 

The run on the funds has already started. It's been quiet, but it's there, and it's about to explode. See the Fed Report.

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Interesting. I remember Sept.18, 2008 vividly. Lehman?€™s debt was causing MMMF?€™s to break the buck.

 

What better way to get the remaining fence sitters....and there are many...."back in the game"

 

0.68% APR on your MMF not enuff to motivate you back into equities?

 

Well how's about we kill the Govi guarantee......does that do it for you grandma?....Well does it?

 

If you don't get back in the market now, were gonna have a few MMF's break the buckster or go belly-up on ya....that'll get you off the fence.....

 

Now then, go and ....

 

BUY STOCKS !!!

 

...anything less would be, well, just un-American

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Oh, and incidentally, the next "asshat bubble" is going to be in high yield corp debt

 

It is, and has been, well underway since March

 

Defaults? What defaults? No problem when the market is willing to keep refinancing your debt at a modestly higher rate and extend the maturity.

 

The easy "monster price appreciation gains" of 300-800% have already been made.....but if you were following my posts from many moons ago, you'd be sitting pretty. I know I am.

 

That said....making a 5%, 6% or 7% or more annual coupon is, and is going to continue to be a whole lot more appealing than MMF yields or stock volatility.

 

The next washout in schlocks will move even more money in the direction of corporate (and other) debt....wash rinse and repeat and this asshat bubble will become a monster

 

But then again, WTFDIK? ^_^

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We are in the teeth of a deflationary storm. At the same time, certain asset classes are inflating. That's the way it has been and will continue to be, although I think those classes that will continue to deflate will narrow considerably at some point in 2010.

 

Word.

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The clunkers program, like the first time buyers $8000 credit, increased the nominal price of these items. Some adjustments to the reported prices are appropriate. Without these props, buyers would not have paid what they paid. They also created artificial volume and artificial shortage which further raised nominal prices. With the clunkers program ended, the volume has collapsed, and the shortages will soon enough turn into surplus again as the supply channels are refilled.

 

We are in the teeth of a deflationary storm. At the same time, certain asset classes are inflating. That's the way it has been and will continue to be, although I think those classes that will continue to deflate will narrow considerably at some point in 2010.

 

 

Eventually so much demand will have been pulled forward that there will be no present demand, or levels so low that no company can exist on a fraction of their normal sales volume.

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Eventually so much demand will have been pulled forward that there will be no present demand, or levels so low that no company can exist on a fraction of their normal sales volume.

 

Re: Auto's ... and for that matter houses.....and...hey why not add to that overpriced designer clothes, jewelry, electronics, etc

 

... demand will move to a more rational equilibrium as opposed to the friggin bullshit we have witnessed over the past decade where every azzhole in northern NJ had to have a BMW or Mercedes for each member of the family and then replaced each and every one every three years under a new lease

 

For cryin' out loud, when I was growing up in the '70's we used run our sh*t into the ground.....no more shade tree mechanics...the only way a car ever made it to the junk yard was because of an accident that totaled the car

 

On "rare" occasion did a family have the 'jing to buy a new car.....and then everyone would stand around and admire the new baby

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I mentioned it a week or two ago, but I'll say it again, Someone is betting that WFC get's pole-axed in Oct, open interest on the right, strike on the left

____________________________

 

21.00 WFCVJ.X 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.10 686 10,465

22.50 WFCVX.X 0.15 0.00 0.10 0.15 2,387 30,613

24.00 FHUVX.X 0.30 0.05 0.25 0.30 9,719 148,488

25.00 FHUVY.X 0.40 0.03 0.35 0.40 7,860 51,037

26.00 FHUVZ.X 0.55 0.00 0.50 0.60 4,366 16,925

27.00 FHUVA.X 0.85 0.05 0.80 0.85 48,551 167,080

28.00 FHUVB.X 1.20 0.05 1.15 1.25 5,714 13,219

29.00 FHUVC.X 1.65 0.05 1.65 1.75 1,034 5,775

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Is this going to hit gold hard on Monday?

 

http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21...779-951,00.html

 

THE International Monetary Fund will sell 403.3 tonnes of its gold reserves, worth an estimated $A15 billion, to provide loans to poor countries and shore up its finances.

While the fund's executive board said it decided on Friday to sell its stocks in a way that would not disrupt commodity markets, gold prices are expected to be hit hard.

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