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HedgeHogs Grassoed


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THE STRANGE AND WEIRD NEED TO BELIEVE

 

I have always marvellled at peoples ability to believe everything financial gurus like Prechter et al say.

 

They inevitably make a million predictions some of which will be inevitably correct thought mere statistical chance.

 

They also inevitably advertise these correct predictions to the roof tops.

 

Equally unsurprising is that they never seem to make any mea culpas about their vast number of incorrect predictions.

 

But as Jessie Livermore said - its your mistakes that you learn from - not your successes.

 

As Captains log says its important to read as widely as possible and come to your own independent conclusions.

 

Relying on gurus only leads to disappointments.

 

PS This market cant go down unitil enough bears have been burnt.

 

Perhaps some one should invent a "Burnt Bear" indicator????

 

The only thing that must be believed in the tape!!!

 

Up unitil proved wrong.

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Hey Guys,

 

I have a decent sum of $$$ maturing tomorrow in a CD. Am going to roll it into my MMF and wait for a bit more here to throw short.

Have no intention of becomming road kill for the Bullz. Don't shoot until you see the whites of thier eyes. Wait for the confirmation that the trend has changed, and watch Piles!!

 

Be well

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PS This market cant go down unitil enough bears have been burnt.

 

Perhaps some one should invent a "Burnt Bear" indicator????

It is my belief that much of the market's rise since June has been due to hedgehogs closing shorts and going long. The premise of the "burnt bear" scenario (which certainly is true for highly shorted individual stocks, like eBay) is that disproportionate short interest represents a "pool" of would-be bulls, and that squeezes of said group would constitute fuel for further upside.

 

I contend that the complexity of dynamic hedging strategies, including the fact that 95% of all derivative transactions are "off the books", limits the usefulness of many statistics, eg. P/C ratio. Momentum and cycle indicators are more useful from my viewpoint, at this stage, and many of these are indicating tops or downside.

 

The price of the market is dependent on the amount of money in it; future market prospects depend on future cash inflow prospects. Of all the events which could suck significant $ out of the market in the near future (esp. USD collapse), the positive contribution of closed short positions has essentially run it's course, IMHO.

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MWH-yes I'm on cable and had the same message-but it's ok now-Bearman-not so! fair value is 1038.37 that puts SPOO'S 10 points below fair value-MAJOR HIT! Trade Safe!

The current contract is Dec. So it's not as bad as it looks. We probably closed Friday near fair value. FWIW.

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That XAU chart is a beauty.

 

Symmetrical Triangles

 

Bottom of latest XAU triangle approx. 55.

Top of latest XAU triangle approx. 88.

Difference of 33.

 

Breakout of latest XAU triangle approx. 78.

Add 33.

111.

 

I do love the triangles.

Thanks for the link. I've been working my way through the chart school articles and haven't read that one yet.

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You told me what to do, so I have forwarded Your post(no 432)to my day trade friend, he bought AMD @ 12.00 & sold at 12.8. very happy.  Thanks,

 

"Past performance does not guarantee future results. Separate account investment returns and principal values will fluctuate so that their value upon redemption may be more or less than their original value."

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