DrStool Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 In countries with low worker mobility, isn't it also true that housing is relatively scarce? In the US, there's a glut of housing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 next support is the 8 day cycle MA at 47.98. Should bounce there. If the bounce is weak, I'll buy some QID again. I got stopped out yesterday. (Glutton for punishment. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elh Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 Crooks unloaded their bets in a big hurry. Smells like a bear bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up (+92,000) in July, and theunemployment rate (4.6 percent) was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.? Employment grew in several service-providing industries.? Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent. Â NFP 595965[/snapback] Â That's pretty weak! That should be bullish news today. Might get the talking heads going on about a rate cut by the end of the year. Â Last night someone brought up the idea that productivity will be impacted by the housing bubble collapse. I have been having the exact same idea. I think a lot of people are going to be trapped in one location for a long time with houses they can't afford to sell. So rather than moving every 5 years or so to a place with better job prospects they'll just make due where they are as best they can. In the US mobility of workers has been a big advantage in the past versus other nations. 595966[/snapback] Whoever said that last night is a damned fool.... Â 595969[/snapback] Â What do you think will be the impact on wages if any? Â Because workers have less mobility they'll have less flexibility in accepting higher salaries far away from home. OTH companies are limited to the local "pool" of workers. Â Maybe in the end the only negative impact is in productivity as you mentioned. 595972[/snapback] Â Â I put together some snippets of manufacturing data, if your interested. I keep records of economic data like this on a month to month basis. The attached document is in no particular order, and some dates differ based on when I ran across a good chart. Trends are identified in Red. Most all productivity data is either trending down or is flat. I also threw in the LEI since it has turned negative and is a reliable predictor of recessions. Â (Thanks Linrom - another 24 oz'er coffee crank this am) Manufacturing___8_3_07.doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 Dong ES at 1467.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 Dong ES at 1467.25 595981[/snapback] Â Stopped out at 1465... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 HUI 3 day cycle projection 348-49. Feels like the wheels are starting to come off, doesn't it?  Yes and I got two unanswered questions In Belgium every account has a state insurance of only 20 000 euro per account and 20 000 euro per share deposit . So how do I find out my bank is safe ? ( Are there safe banks left ?)  Second question ; If I buy puts or sell short and the counterparty goes brook do I get a cent of those 1000% gains I made on paper ? 595961[/snapback]  With the puts, there may be counterparty risk. Not with selling short, since the cash is "theoretically" in you account when you sell the stock. But in either case, if your broker or clearing firm is Bear (and I think they are the largest clearing firm) and they go bust, then you are going to have to rely on the SIPC up to the limits of coverage.  As for safety of principle of short term cash assets, I would rely only on sovereign short term Treasury or Ministry of Finance instruments of your home country. If you go outside, then you face currency risk.  Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up (+92,000) in July, and theunemployment rate (4.6 percent) was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.? Employment grew in several service-providing industries.? Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent.  NFP 595965[/snapback]  That's pretty weak! That should be bullish news today. Might get the talking heads going on about a rate cut by the end of the year.  Last night someone brought up the idea that productivity will be impacted by the housing bubble collapse. I have been having the exact same idea. I think a lot of people are going to be trapped in one location for a long time with houses they can't afford to sell. So rather than moving every 5 years or so to a place with better job prospects they'll just make due where they are as best they can. In the US mobility of workers has been a big advantage in the past versus other nations. 595966[/snapback]  When you're under water, just hand in the keys and go.  For most people, such a thought wouldn't have entered their minds a year ago. That's going to begin to change as more and more people find their homes are worth less than their mortgage balance. If they think there are greener pastures elsewhere, they'll go.  People whose houses are in foreclosure have a lot of mobility. Back in the 30s, millions roamed the country looking for work. 595975[/snapback]  I think it was back in the late 80's when people last mailed in the keys to their home en masse. I think they called it "gingle mail." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogsie Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 XBD seems to have really fallen apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 I'm wondering if the crooks are going to paint a retest of the lows over the next few days.....Just trying to think like a crook... Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up (+92,000) in July, and theunemployment rate (4.6 percent) was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment grew in several service-providing industries. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent.  NFP 595965[/snapback]  That's pretty weak! That should be bullish news today. Might get the talking heads going on about a rate cut by the end of the year.  Last night someone brought up the idea that productivity will be impacted by the housing bubble collapse. I have been having the exact same idea. I think a lot of people are going to be trapped in one location for a long time with houses they can't afford to sell. So rather than moving every 5 years or so to a place with better job prospects they'll just make due where they are as best they can. In the US mobility of workers has been a big advantage in the past versus other nations. 595966[/snapback] Whoever said that last night is a damned fool....  595969[/snapback]  What do you think will be the impact on wages if any?  Because workers have less mobility they'll have less flexibility in accepting higher salaries far away from home. OTH companies are limited to the local "pool" of workers.  Maybe in the end the only negative impact is in productivity as you mentioned. 595972[/snapback]   I put together some snippets of manufacturing data, if your interested. I keep records of economic data like this on a month to month basis. The attached document is in no particular order, and some dates differ based on when I ran across a good chart. Trends are identified in Red. Most all productivity data is either trending down or is flat. I also threw in the LEI since it has turned negative and is a reliable predictor of recessions.  (Thanks Linrom - another 24 oz'er coffee crank this am) 595980[/snapback]  Tanks, may I recommend the addition of the term spread? it's also a good prediricator of Recessions. Don't trust Greenspan's spewings bashing it's value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 qqqq 5 hr cycle projection 47.78-82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 spx 5 hr projection 1456 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 spy on threshold list. can not be shorted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 3, 2007 Report Share Posted August 3, 2007 oops. hui 3 day cycle projection drops to 345. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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