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Quarterly Digger - Begin Again - March 2014


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HUI very clean EW 5 wave structure complete with a common wave 4 triangle, Wave 5 thrust out of triangle completed (equal to base.)  Minimal retracement back into Wave 4 triangle apex area is what EW says should happen.  Real test will be if it breaks upwards from there for a larger retracement of the whole impulse down.  Currently up against 2-4 trendline. Looking to add miners with GDX upon breaking it. Then see how it does back at the triangle. Just took out the weekly Bolli band center MA so that's good! 

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we are 7 quarters along in this sideways move in Gold. There is money flowing into the USA right now and its concentrating itself inside the bond market. Gold will have its day in the sun and we are getting closer to that pint in time. Risk/reward wise its an excellent time to take some long positions in the space. I would favour the boys with clean balance sheets, increasing production profiles and without major country risk. 

 

The equity markets IE. financing window will be closed with the commodity complex in the dumps. I am not looking at the spec plays at this time.... its not the right time for them IMO. As I mentioned above the long bases the South Africans are breaking out from are quite encouraging. GOLD being the crème de la creme

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using the GLD as a proxy the weekly volume is expanding. The Oct/14 high of 120.50 has been cleared. Down sloping trend lines- one drawn from the March/2014   high  the other longer term one drawn from the Oct /2012 high- are both  broken.

 

there is major resistance overhead at the 130.50 level see  the low of the monthly candle from April/2013.

 

The bearish view is that on a monthly we still have lower lows and lower highs forming. Bullish case comes from the work done on the weeklies so far this year.......

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Charmin that move you mentioned didn't have any volume behind it. looking at the current month ( using GLD as a proxy) we should be able to do more than 200M which is 50M more than December of 2014... on the quarterly chart we are going to need 1 Billion shares to work off the downdraft from Q2 2013...right now it looks like we are only on pace for ~ 700M shares... I don't expect the GLD to makes its move until after Q3 2015......my guess is we are going to chop along until that time.

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