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Japanese Experience Could Never Happen Here


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" 810 for xmas? I love it. "

 

I doubt that. The part about 810 by xmas, that is, not that you wouldn't love it :)

 

But good chance of 700s possibly as soon as late March and maybe 600s by mid year.

 

Patience, patience, cycles to the downside don't have a lot of time left before they'll turn up and bully boyz will look at the charts and see the retrace of the Oct 10-Dec 2 rally as something to buy into.

 

Just my 2 cents worth.

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Very interesting chart Doc. Japan seemed to have settled out after the post-Gulf War recession and Clinton-Rubin-Uncle Al started tinkering, ensuring U.S. consumption of Japanese goods. The wild drop-off in March 2000 is a bit of an eye-opener as well. As far as what the U.S. market can do at this level where Japan settled out ten years ago, sort of, I just don't see any catalyst for global consumption of U.S. products or any new business cycle to take up the slack. This looks more and more like a global dead duck!

 

Japan may end up the lucky ones in all this if the Japanese central bank uses the fiat computer mouse to print money and buy up the worthless stock in crap companies the banks hold, giving Japan the edge in the global currency devaluation game. First goal scored by Japan when they announced 150 yen to the dollah would be desirable. The U.S. just scored and tied the game with the Treasury Secratary move. Score=1/1. Who scores next? Japan merely goes click on the mouse and buys more crappy real estate stock off the banks and devalue the yen some more. Christ, what a game! Krudlow was mouthing off on Crapvision Friday about how easy it is to do Uncle Al's job, click to Feed, click to drain. Japan clicks the mouse and buys up more crap stock off the banks. Back and forth in the currency hockey game........Fx Fox may be onto something with Forex gaming. And gold.......... get some while you can stoolies!

 

Clickety Klack! We's runnin right off the track! Look out below!

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Great chart Doc,

 

What I never really noticed before but often wondered about was what the heck was Japan doing while the rest of the world was having the Bull Market of all times. Well they were forming an 8 year bull-horn. What was at play was upward pull of world economics mixed with the downward pull of their domestic problems abd deflationary pressures. The sharp rise in the manufacturing base of China in conjunction with the end of the bull market (the 2 are not unrelated), then led to the continuation of the primary trend. It is unlikely that this will be repeated in the US without a visitation from aliens. There is nothing that is going to pull this one up like in Japan until the bear plays out. This to me is why the Japanese scenario from here on out will be less comparable.

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The symnetry twixt the S&Pee/Dowager and the Nicked-DIE r, heretoFUR to this observer, purely coincidental. The DIE was cASSt 'long' ago when the parabolic went vertical. It WILL retrace to a similar extent of Tokyo's now-crippled average. The BARE doubts if it will mirror it much FURther going FURward . There's a deep rooted tendency in followers of the markets to draw hysterical OOOOPS!!! historical ANALogies. History rhymes BUTT rarely repeats, eggsactly.

 

Lettuce c what The Fates, Three decree, FUR thee and me, shall we?

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TK, the author of this article assumes that the Nikme has bottomed. I don't think that this is the case. Accordingly, if the comparison holds, the bear market on the ass-and-pee should continue well into 2010.

 

I think that Doc's comparison is more correct. See also this article which has comparison charts that pretty much agree with Doc's.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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Japan's economy is the real new economy... But is still doomed they are less aware of "whats coming" then we are... But the U.S. is more doomed than them. in 2003 it will become far more apparent Unless the FED is going to buy the excess or "Bail out" the unemployed. I've studied plenty of "Paths" to their retarded conclusion and I'm sure they have a computer program and a supercomputer telling them their next move but this ain't sim city. moment of truth could happen at any time...

 

Pssst I'm sure it will be apparent to everyone here before anyone else... :blink:

 

Or when is next week going to show up....

 

Every day is one step closer to "Haywire"

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Uh, Doc, that last chart assumes that we'll go down in one straight line - and, as we all know, the markets just don't do that. ;)

 

More likely, once this cyclical bear is over (probably the next year), we'll enter a prolonged sideways-down action that will look pretty much like Nikkei's and will be good for traders, because it will have a few quite nice swings. Then the final down leg will start.

 

Time frame - all this should last till 2010 at the very least, although 2017-2020 seems more likely to me.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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