Mr. Beal Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 It will soon be a 'Crude Casino'. Crude will usher in the impending train wreck. Crude will soon become the board that the markets trade-off much as bonds once were. Crude will be the salvation of Stoolville. Perhaps next week a few Stoolies take a field trip to the NYMEX and upon close gather up a few of those crooks and buy a couple of rounds? Beal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 That's not the whole thing. I will type the whole thing but, I hate typing. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 John Bollinger on CNBS 5 minutes ago: Safe havens of bonds and gold are dead. Equities are "just starting to turn up and pay attention". So there you have it. Gold bull dead. Stock market bull beginning. then bollinger pointed to the stock chart and said "this is a bollinger reversal." you can see it here on this candlestick, errr, bollinger bar setup. so you go long here as the bollinger bar breaks out of the bollinger reversal into the bollinger band. we indentified it in the IBD, errr bollinger sector/industry service. i saw him talk and he was almost hostile to the folks asking questions. i was gonna asking him where he got the nuts to tweak everything in TA and then name it after himself. but his face was already flushed and he might have been packing a "Bollinger 357." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Gold should be interesting tonite.... Take a look at the $XAU spike right at the market close... One of my miners HL, had a robust bid over closing price... no takers in afterhours... We'll see... I think I remember this happening awhile back, it was followed up by a spike in the POG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Crude was up two bucks intraday but reversed and closed lower. When it was up it was mostly ignored, when it went down it was also mostly ignored, by stocks. Stocks reacted quickly to terrorist threat warning level being reduced. Right now stock market is focused on war/terrorism. If and when crude closes over $40 then I agree stock market will not ignore it any more. Gold got crushed again today, for gosh sakes if it can't even hold $350 how can it be a bull market??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Best case for the bulls is Saddam and all his relatives who control the secret police etc. are taken out by special forces or rivals, or they voluntarily flee the country. A new U.S. friendly regime peacefully takes over and pumps cheap oil, the troops all come home and buy more new homes and SUV's and the economy booms. The odds of this are so low it is not worth betting on. Worst case for bulls is war goes badly, chemical/biological/nuclear weapons kill many thousands of U.S. troops over there and civilians over here and general panic ensues, hostages and blackmail used to thwart U.S. while North Korea swarms over the DMZ and China seizes Taiwan. Massive terrorist strikes hit the U.S. homeland. This is possible but also unlikely. Expected case is the Saddamites fight to the bitter end, lose, but create much fear uncertainty and doubt in the meantime which pops the bulls bubble of expecting a quick and easy war rally, so the market careens lower and the public remains way too scared to buy. It will not be quick and easy because unlike running the Iraqis out of Kuwait via an on-the-run target shoot, this time they are dug in at home among civilians and underground and it will take a long time to get them to surrender, they are not just surrendering an already raped/pillaged/looted country and running home with their loot, this time they are surrendering their home and their power and probably their lives. George W. and company, and the powers that be, have been planning this for a year and a half, and will spare no expense to conquer Iraq, and they will. But it will be very, very messy and dirty. Until it is over (October?) all rallies caused by panicked shorts getting goosed will be selling opportunities until the Commercials have blown out most of the Small Speculator longs, and have covered their short positions at much lower prices than today. When the housing bubble bursts those who were clever enough to profit from it and get out with lots of money will not be putting that money back into real estate, nor bonds.....they will be putting into selected commodities but MOSTLY back into stocks, which are much easier to manipulate higher to make money, especially once most of the public has been flushed out. There are already too many people focusing on being short, but the bear market is not over yet, it is just nearing its end. The Dow will bottom somewhere around 6500. Finally, the proof we were all looking for. http://www.iol.ie/~forsacosanta/world_needed_proof.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Actual photo showing Saddam testing his weapons of ass destruction: Saddam and Osama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auntie Septic Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 John Bollinger on CNBS 5 minutes ago: Safe havens of bonds and gold are dead. Equities are "just starting to turn up and pay attention". So there you have it. Gold bull dead. Stock market bull beginning. Well if Bollinger says gold bull is dead, it must be time to take delivery on even more stoopid yellow stuff. Bollinger can have the paper and promises, make mine gold please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Beal Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Crude was up two bucks intraday but reversed and closed lower. When it was up it was mostly ignored, when it went down it was also mostly ignored, by stocks. Stocks reacted quickly to terrorist threat warning level being reduced. Right now stock market is focused on war/terrorism. If and when crude closes over $40 then I agree stock market will not ignore it any more. Gold got crushed again today, for gosh sakes if it can't even hold $350 how can it be a bull market??? Today was _the first_ day Crude was $40. I highly doubt it will be the last. Gold is @ 347 up .80 as I type this. Its testing 345 again it may well hold. Sustained higher energy prices is the backbreaker. - period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 The BARE finds this whole notion while interesting as an artifact somewhat silly, as he does quasi-messianic expectations of "turn" dates looming in either early or mid? or is it now late Mar?. We were supposed to have had one circa the 21st FUR ex. that was yapped about FUR weeks in advance. Turned out to be a dud, pretty much. BARE - you mean that bradley date or sumpin else? shorty, DOW 6500 might be a good place to stop for a beer. not for long though. no changes in SPX puts. got more BEARX. wonderin if b4 is straddled agin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 The whole market reminds me of an LA nightclub. First you line up. You wait a couple of hours with a pile of other schmucks. You spend the time watching drug dealers, celebrities and various other ODD BALLS pull up at the valet. They give the bouncer high fives and immediately enter. You finally reach the front door - and have to convince the lead gorilla (the bouncer that can talk) or the DOOR BITCH that you are WORTHY. He/she finally lets you in after you have humiliated yourself - and PAID for the privilege of having grovelled. A girl thinks she recognises you and approaches - her friend saves her - "He's NOBODY". The lights are dim and the women are kitted out with the designer gear and body. The women are on a mission and you are part of the OBSTACLE course. Then suddenly just as you were getting drunk and you have convinced yourself it's fun being REJECTED. - the crowd thins and there is a faint murmur of a PRIVATE party in the Hollywood Hills. You finally leave - empty handed and BROKE. But you'll be back next week because it's ADDICTIVE, :grin: and one of these days you goina...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Sustained higher energy prices would indeed crush the economy and stock market. Crude is too hard for me to trade though so I will watch from sidelines. I was long April gold 360.30 and bailed out in disgust today at 347. Should I buy back in if 345 holds for a couple days or wait until back above 360? What is the safest gold stock to get long now? Is there any good way to play crude more safely via a particular stock? Thanks for ideas. Also thanks to Mark and everyone else for the great info here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Used todays jam to add another 10 spx puts to the collection, APR 900s. Net long 20. In at high of day on S&P. Weak TOM push, expect down hard into march 6 and possibly into a turn on mar 13 barring any unexpected euro damage. TRADE SAFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Summoner, I think you and I will be handsomely rewarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted February 28, 2003 Report Share Posted February 28, 2003 Just in time for the bear/beer bash in NYC, sorry Ill be unable to attend... would of bought . Will be there in spirit though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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