B4 The Bell Humpday October 6

[traderfromhell]

Could someone tell me what Richard Russell's Primary Trend Index is saying now?

New high. What were you expecting?

If his PTI is at a new high we should all be ballz to the wall long then right?

[trinharder]

From Russell's October 6th Dow Theory Letter: obviously no link

 

What does all this mean for the nation? Honestly I don't have the answer-all I have are my own guesses. One guess, the consumer is tapped out. Second guess- business is slowing down. Third guess- rising short rates are pressuring the "carry trade". Fourth guess- Iraq has turned into a bloody disaster. Fifth guess- US current account deficits are starting to worry our foriegn creditors. Sixth guess- all of the above, or possibly something entirely different is in the wind. My instinct and advice is to get into cash. When you're standing on the railroad tracks and the train is barreling down on you, you don't ask whether the train is the Midnight Special or the Wabash Cannonball, you just get the heck off the tracks.

 

I take this recent action as indicative of "exhaustion." It appears that both the economy and the market, at least as measured by the US's largest stocks, has run out of steam. My interpretation is that the upward correction of the initial leg of the bear market is now in the process of topping out- this in the face of the best efforts of the Federal Reserve, and despite the greatest infusions of credit in stock market history.

[zensmoke]

DJ US Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead

All dates are in ET Time.

 

 

Thursday, October 7, 2004

? ET/GMT? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Expected? Previous

0800/1200? ? ? ? ? Cleveland Fed Pres Pianalto speaks at

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? economy and business summit in

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Cincinnati

0830/1230? Oct 2?? Initial Jobless Claims ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? -19K? ? ? +18K

0930/1330? ? ? ?? Fed Vice Chairman Ferguson speaks on

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? free trade at Cato Institute conference

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? in Washington

0930/1330? ? ? ? ? US Tsy Secy Snow speaks with local

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? business leaders in

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Independence,Missouri

1000/1400? Sep 25? DJ-BTM Business Barometer? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? +0.7%

1100/1500? ? ? ? ? US Tsy Secy Snow tours Independence

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Center in Independence, Missouri

1300/1700? ? ? ? ? Fed Gov Bernanke speaks on central

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? banks and monetary policy at Japan

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Society luncheon in New York

1430/1830? ? ? ? ? Fed Chairman Greenspan speaks via

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? satellite at the "Reflections on

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Monetary Policy: Twenty-Five Years

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? After October 1979" conference at

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1500/1900? Aug? ?? Consumer Credit? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? +$5.4B? ? +$10.9B

1630/2030? ? ? ?? Money Supply

1745/2145? ? ? ? ? Dallas Fed Pres McTeer speaks on the

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? economy in New York

1800/2200? ? ? ? ? Tsy Undersecy Taylor speaks at

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? "Reflections on Monetary Policy:25

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Years after October 1979" in St. Louis

1830/2230? ? ? ?? Atlanta Fed Pres Guynn speaks at

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? conference hosted by Federal Reserve

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Bank of Atlanta

?? N/A? ?? Sept? ? Chain Store Sales

 

Friday, October 8, 2004

? ET/GMT? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Expected? Previous

0830/1230? Sept? ? Unemployment Rate? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 5.4%? ? ? 5.4%

0830/1230? Sept? ? Non-Farm Payrolls? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? +145K? ?? +144K

0830/1230? ? ? ? ? US Tsy Secy Snow participates in

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? roundtable with family business

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? administrators in Toledo, Ohio

0940/1340? Sept? ? ECRI Inflation Gauge? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? 118.5

1000/1400? Aug? ?? Wholesale Trade? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? +0.8%? ?? +1.3%

1000/1400? ? ? ? ? Fed Gov Bernanke participates in panel

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? discussion at "Reflections on Monetary

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Policy: Twenty-Five Years After October

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? 1979" conference in St. Louis

1200/1600? ? ? ? ? Fed Vice Chairman Ferguson participates

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? in panel discussion? at the

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? "Reflections on Monetary Policy:

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Twenty-Five Years After October 1979"

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? conference in St. Louis

1200/1600? ? ? ? ? Tsy Undersecy Taylor speaks at

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? "Payments in the Americas" conference

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? in Atlanta

1230/1630? ? ? ? ? US Tsy Secy Snow tours Dana Automotive

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Systems Technology Center in Maumee,

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Ohio

1400/1800? ? ? ? ? Bond markets close early

1830/2230? ? ? ? ? Tsy Undersecy Taylor to speak at

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Wharton Finance Conference in

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Philadelphia

2100/0100? ? ? ? ? Pres Bush and Sen Kerry debate in St.

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Louis

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