sweefraapp Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 If we have an historical change in the number of up issues vs. down issues compared to up and down volume due to the derivative phenomenon, then the trin will have to be looked at in a different light. Trin = (up issues/down issues)/(up volume/down volume) Goepfert wrote about recent trin numbers on sentimenttrader.com yesterday. (this is a little long, but it is interesting and premarket right now) "Two weeks ago, we had almost the exact same up/down volume pattern that we had today, yet the TRIN was almost a full point higher. Therefore, the only possible explanation is that the advancing/declining issues component was different than today's which is indeed the case. Today's a/d reading was -1825 (meaning 1825 more issues declined than rose) compared to -1644 two weeks ago. So a difference of 181 issues, less than 5% of total issues traded on the NYSE, made quite a large impact on the TRIN. This isn't exactly correct, because the up/down volume figures are slightly different, but you get the idea. Therefore, if the selling pressure is more broad-based, and more issues decline on the day, it can actually cause the TRIN to DECREASE. Typically, when traders see a high TRIN reading they automatically think the selling was severe and indiscriminate. In fact, that's not the case - many high TRIN readings are caused by heavy selling in just a few issues. That's why so many panic-type lows do not have extraordinarily high TRIN readings. The selling is indiscriminate, thus causing the a/d to widen, which does not normally allow the TRIN to reach extreme levels." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 And today, my updated Wave count on NAS Wave 1 of the TURD of a TURD started Dec as we all know, 1515 NAS Wave 1 ended with a clear 5 wave pattern on or about March 12 obviously at 1253 Wave 2 up is underway, in a 3 wave A B C pattern towards 1470, prior wave 2 top of Jan 13 We are in a B down now... which should be 3 waves.... A down, B up, C down Wave C will blast off from there to near Jan highs to complete wave 2 Then the Turd finally begins slowly... will take many months I suspect to unfold. I expect 1340 to hold as B wave bottom, and C wave to 1470 ish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyGoldenStool Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 Anyone see this? Freddie Mac to Delay Its Results MCLEAN, Va. (Reuters) - Freddie Mac , the second largest U.S. mortgage finance company, on Tuesday said it would delay releasing results for the first quarter until it completed its restatement for prior years. The company said it was on track to complete the restatement, which stemmed from a change in a how it accounts for derivatives, by the end of the second quarter this year. The restatement includes its annual results for 2000, 2001 and 2002 and quarterly results in 2001 and 2002. The company also reaffirmed its view that a restatement would increase prior reported earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 have no illusions about this. the vested interests will lie, cheat, jam, and systematically defraud right until the end. Not different from an Enron or a WorldCom is it. no, and funny you mention enron. i just now got off the phone with a buddy who worked at enron for years (he left before the meltdown, said he "couldn't deal with it") and then went to williams. he said williams lost $8B cash on a bad bet on telecoms, and the hatchet men are coming down from tulsa this morning to whack his group. said they're giving up on trading and going back to pipelines. I don't know how they meausre the price parameter, but it's not enough to be just 90% down volume. the other half of the 90/90 is points - dollars of price change for all NYSE listed issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 No one seems to understand that Desmond's 90% down days threory includes not only volume but price action. I don't know how they meausre the price parameter, but it's not enough to be just 90% down volume. Ahem. No one? :wink2: It is stated quite clearly in the article I've written on this subject in my forum. Every time I say that I've observed a 90% day, I make the disclaimer "at least volume-wise". The price parameter is supposed to be measured like this - the sum of points by which all declining issues on the NYSE have declined must be 9 times more than the sum of points by which all advancing issues on the NYSE have advanced on the same date. What is not clear is what do you do with issues like BRKa, which can move by a number of points every day that is equal (or higher) than the combined number of points that all other issues have moved. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 Looks like it's a Dollar up/Gold sell day....we know what that means - all we need now is confirmation by the single digit midgets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bidhitter Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 This cycle should be on day 10 which normally leads to the second top on day 10-11, but the market is operating off of news from the war more than anything else right now. That being said, we could have another short cycle and the highs may already be in (I think they are), and we could drift down the next day or two for the next one. With the market reaction to the news, I'm not as much looking for normal cycle actions. We missed the pivot point yesterday. PP are touched 75% of the time, and while I've seen consecutive sessions of missing them, they are rare. I've personally never seen 3 sessions where the pp wasn't touched during normal trading hours. The ES pivot today is 870, about 6 points above where we're trading at right now. The resistance lies at 864 (globex overnight high), 880, then yesterdays high of 886. The support levels are 861 (yesterday's low), 855 and then 845. My strategy for right now is to sell the ES when and if we reach the pp of 870. The higher odds setup would be to sell the 880 level, but I don't know if we'll see that. Will maintain tight stop in case it sices thru and sell the uppper levels.. good luck The NQ pivot today is 1062, about 5 points above where we're trading at right now. The resistance lies at 1059 (globex overnight high), 1077, then yesterdays high of 1088. The support levels are 1048 (yesterday's low), 1037 and then 1022. We might have a couple of small range days as investors wait to see what is going to happen in Bahgdad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 Anals Pre Market Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurnInHellMF Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 No one seems to understand that Desmond's 90% down days threory includes not only volume but price action. I don't know how they meausre the price parameter, but it's not enough to be just 90% down volume. Ahem. No one? :wink2: It is stated quite clearly in the article I've written on this subject in my forum. Every time I say that I've observed a 90% day, I make the disclaimer "at least volume-wise". The price parameter is supposed to be measured like this - the sum of points by which all declining issues on the NYSE have declined must be 9 times more than the sum of points by which all advancing issues on the NYSE have advanced on the same date. What is not clear is what do you do with issues like BRKa, which can move by a number of points every day that is equal (or higher) than the combined number of points that all other issues have moved. Regards, Vesselin That's right. Seems like the formula really should take outstanding shares into consideration, otherwise it really means nothing. That said is there some easy way to calculate the total up points and down points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 The market is a rip off... I wonder how many people after carefull study and thought know that investing is about as usefull pileing all your money in one spot and torching it... It's organized crime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 Still self imposed lock down...so won't be here much today....but I will give you my plan....I am still position long against the lows March in Europe...... I went swing short last Friday and covered those yesterday in the low 60's........I am scalping like hell here........basically I went swing long near 38.2% bloob at 856.50..... idea is A completed last Friday highs....we are in 4 of 5 of a (down) bloob.......or we completed already.....we will then begin b up correction....then will see c of B into 3/27 +/- lows........then begins C up which should see new highs or just....... If I am wrong then CIT's have inverted and we head straight for the Knacker's yard....if so no problem for me...it will be evident to me when we are on that course..........look for 38.2% and 50% and 61.8% downside for B.......any more and we have risk of new lows upon us...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 Looks like it's a Dollar up/Gold sell day....we know what that means - all we need now is confirmation by the single digit midgets. Given that Al Greenscam has been seen entering/leaving the White House three times in the past two days, I think it's safe to say something is up. Stick save on the futures early this a.m., stick on the dollar, reverse-ditto on gold. I'm intrigued by Doc's supposition that a couple of hedgehogs might have experienced a blow out over the past two trading days. If a dervivative disaster was unfolding, how would we know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 Stooltrading Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 Looks like it's a Dollar up/Gold sell day....we know what that means - all we need now is confirmation by the single digit midgets. Given that Al Greenscam has been seen entering/leaving the White House three times in the past two days, I think it's safe to say something is up. Stick save on the futures early this a.m., stick on the dollar, reverse-ditto on gold. I'm intrigued by Doc's supposition that a couple of hedgehogs might have experienced a blow out over the past two trading days. If a dervivative disaster was unfolding, how would we know? The COT reports have been telling the whole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted March 25, 2003 Report Share Posted March 25, 2003 That's right. Seems like the formula really should take outstanding shares into consideration, otherwise it really means nothing. That said is there some easy way to calculate the total up points and down points? Can't think of any easy way, unless you can get a raw feed on all of the 5,000 or so closing prices and dump it into a big spreadsheet for processing. A manageable proxy, though, would be to add up the positive and negative point changes of the 30 DJIA stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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