DrStool Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 As far as mentioning the war: There were major problems on Mark's thread this weekend. As a result, I instituted a much tougher editorial policy on posting. It is absolutely essential for the success of the Stool Pigeons Wire that emotions remain under control and that each forum remain ON TOPIC. You can mention the war in the context of the market, but you MUST keep your personal FEELINGS and OPINIONS about it out. If I even smell a whiff of your personal opinion about the war or politics in this thread, I will "redact" your post, and if necessary, delete it. I intend to err on the side of excess caution. Do not take this personally. The motive should be clear. Emotions are running extremely high, and I want to keep a lid on it in this thread. When one expresses his feelings someone else shoots back and pretty soon we have an ugly mess on our hands here. If you need to express yourself about the war or politics, use Political Stool. Please, check your post carefully before clicking the "Add Reply". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 SG, what's your projection for the B-wave bottom ? I'd especially like to see the most optimistic (from the bullz point of view) number (highest QQQ level it's likely to bottom at) ? I want to unload some PUTz and wait for the next setup (C wave) which I think will be higher than where we topped on Friday. Probably corresponding with the end of the ongoing overseas excursion (OOE) for short. I'd like to have more cash ready for the next C wave top. This dip will likely be bought up like dogs tearing into red meat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Thank you all for your kind wishes and prayers last week. My wife and I read through them; your words touched her and brought tears to her eyes. One wouldn't expect that from a stool site. Thanks again all. Now, back to this insane market. I will not be posting PCR charts as frequently as I had in the past. It's too time consuming and detracts from my focus on the markets. I spend most of my time checking the CBOE for updates since they're not always on the half hour as one would expect. I'm looking into automating the process, but that'll be a while before I can make that happen. Sorry about the inconvenience since we all have been used to having the PCR charts on a regular basis. I hope to have a better solution before long that'll take me out of the loop. DF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 SG- The best I can do is to say I'm doubtful as to whether this can extend upward after a pullback. That's why I suggested following shorter term indicators for guidance. They are certainly overbought. As illustrated in the Anals, the enormous hedge position drove, and has been worked off in this meltup, and I doubt there is real cash demand behind the move to pick up the slack. I guess we'll learn a lot when we see how they respond to this gap down this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Re B wave bottom SG has some projections on my SG waves forum this morning But... 26.28 25.91 25.61 25.04 .286, .382, .50, .618 retrace levels on Q's My best guess is 25.61, a 50% retrace.... then IM seeing a possible move to 28.55 or higher... SG sits in cash for now, the war and other criteria are making it tough to trade, so I WONT FOR NOW Plenty of time left this year to get it all back and some... but I dont think the A B C is over quite yet... B is underway, should be 3 waves... I may go DONG around 25.61 depending on patterns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Thanks DOC Guess we will see if Uncle AL keeps things floating. Im going to sit tight for now and see if normal wave patterns develop before trying to be "the man" Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 SG, the opinion of mine you're quoting is still my preferred scenario. It's just that as soon as I have decided which way the market is going (and have acted accordingly), I immediately start looking for evidence that I am wrong. Haven't seen any yet - but am on the lookout for it. To be precise, I see the possible scenarios like this: 1) Retrace to COMPX 1350-1360. Maybe to 1320, if the bears are lucky. Another leg up after that. Too early for precise targets for it - anything in the 1500-1900 range would have to do for now. A big decline starts afterwards. Probablylity for this scenario: 60%. 2) We retrace almost completely the recent rally and re-test the lows - and then rally. Again, too early for upside targets. A big decline starts once the rally is over. Probability - 30%. 3) We go straight down to new lows (below the October lows). Probability - 10%. Too early for targets, let's see how we react around the October lows first. Probability - 10%. 4) We go straight up from here. Probability - 0%. :grin: The assigned probabilities are subjective, of course - they reflect only my confidence on how likely these scenarios are; not some objective mathematical probability. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 So Doc you don't think we'll get a better setup than Friday ? What about the Brinkerites ? That gaggle of mom n' pop stock buyers. Are they all in ? I used to like that guy (during the Bull mkt) but he's become such a POS since the Bear started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheet4brain Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 I will not be posting PCR charts as frequently as I had in the past. It's too time consuming and detracts from my focus on the markets. I spend most of my time checking the CBOE for updates since they're not always on the half hour as one would expect. I'm looking into automating the process, but that'll be a while before I can make that happen. Sorry about the inconvenience since we all have been used to having the PCR charts on a regular basis. I hope to have a better solution before long that'll take me out of the loop. DF Hell, DF, we'll settle for a chart every hour, instead of the half-hour you've been doing. If that's still too much of an inconvenience, we'll take every 2 hours, ie. 10AM, 12 noon, 2PM and closing. Your effort is much appreciated, DF!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Matterhorn Formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Good morning guys, Just got back the hospital and found I dont have esophagous cancer. I am so relieved. Still have to have surgery again though. Sorry off topic, just very happy and relieved so far. My take with many others here, is that if we fall back on light volume then we are setting up for another blast off. Volume seems to be the main key here. Thanks for all the help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 What a hook Friday was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Q's trading around 26.50. I'm going to psot the updated chart on Stool trading in about 2 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Vess To be precise, I see the possible scenarios like this: 1) Retrace to COMPX 1350-1360. Maybe to 1320, if the bears are lucky. Another leg up after that. Too early for precise targets for it - anything in the 1500-1900 range would have to do for now. A big decline starts afterwards. Probablylity for this scenario: 60%. 1253 to 1425 is 172 points... 50% retrace is 1339; 38 is 1360 38% is typical on a B wave... Thanks for your comments... I basically agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted March 24, 2003 Report Share Posted March 24, 2003 Striker Glad to hear it and good luck with the surgery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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