wndysrf Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Mark?s Market Commentary ? February 14, 2003 Every single man has received the Valentine?s Day Ultimatum. ?I need to have a commitment by Valentine?s Day? ?I better have a ring on my finger by Valentine?s Day? ?You better make it up with a surprise gift by Valentine?s Day? But of course, the reason the man hasn?t done any of these things by now is because he?s still looking for someone a little thinner, a little hotter, one that has ?the look? he wants. But the woman has been in denial, and she has been picking this day as the ?Day of Recognition?. If her man hasn?t delivered by now, he?s unlikely to deliver ?just in time?. The passing of the 14th with no results simply confirms the ?Point of Recognition?, confirmation that the relationship is going nowhere. For the last three years, investors have been told of the 2nd half recovery, the hockey stick ramp up in corporate profits, stocks are not reflecting the ?stealth recovery?, consumers are likely to ?resume spending? once the excuse of the day is swept aside, etc. etc. When will the buy and hopers finally reach the Point of Recognition and realize that they have been duped? When will they realize that the players like Al Green, Tom O?Neill, corporate CEO?s, and all the rest have been pulling off the longest, greatest, 3-year distribution job of the century? Not for a long time. In less than 3 weeks, we will have been in a bear market for 36 months. Nothing has changed. All dips are bought with a vengeance. HedgeHogs are awash in liquidity. Over 6000 mutuals, hedge funds, funds of funds, and millions of Riverboating Daytraders worldwide are still obessed with the stock market. Again, I was out most of the day, and didn?t have time to add much for today. What to Expect Next: From Yesterday: The bounce may go up to retest the last big volume day, which was Jan. 30. Bounce targets = low of the day on Jan. 30. The last down day with high volume, which needs to be retested. Dow 7900 S & P 840 Nasdaq 1310 We opened with the Blix Spike in the morning, followed by the usual selloff and slow grind up into a full blown panic into the close, which has been a signature pattern during intermediate bottoms during this bear market. From Buddha today: ?We have seen this kind of intraday pattern zillions of times. Windy forecast it right on the money with his early morning post. When market spikes like this and then sells off quickly in morning it often retraces back up on a gentler slope as loser dippers who missed the first time around attempt to game for a a second pop. Pure psychology. You arrive at sock hop late and see all maximum bossomed girls taken quickly, what do you do then when the new freshmen class with a whole new set of budding mammaries, crashes the gate?? Targets were hit pretty close, into the last minute buying panic. As expected, the low volume wedge decline resolved itself into an explosive rally. The low volume declines have been a foolproof indicator of a bounce during a topping pattern. Volume was light initially today but appeared to really accelerate into the end of the day, which is a bullish sign. Fleck expects that the rally could last up to two weeks. Tim Ord thinks there is a shot for a huge rally back up to the August 22 highs, since the entire decline since December 2 has been one massive bullish wedge. The breadth was horrible on the first morning spike, but in the afternoon, all the stocks started running. If we gap up on Tuesday and real heavy volume starts coming in, it will be time to close more shorts and go long, and wait and see what happens. But with the +1400 TICK reading, an immediate reversal might be possible. Notice that we recorded rock bottom TRIN readings today. For the short term the bulls now have the ball. Heavy volume came into the SPY and DIA tracking stocks. Like Jesse Livermore said, let the market tell you where it wants to go. Yesterday?s hammer and today?s mania run appears to suggest that the market is telling us it want to run higher for awhile. Of course, any multi-day or multi-week rally in here will further extend the topping pattern, similar to March Madness last year, and result in a giant-sized decline later. If Ord?s theory is correct, and we run all the way back up to the prior highs, then we have a massive megaphone formation, right under the 5-year shoulder, which would signal a horrific decline for the rest of 2003. Either way, a huge gap is in the works for Tuesday. If something bad happens over the weekend, or if Saddam resigns over the weekend, the rest of the world gets to react on Monday, leaving the U.S. Riverboaters stranded in horror as the market moves without them. Very dangerous position, right now. And who knows if Al Green was given a Valentine?s Day Ultimatum by Andrea? ?Get this market and economy moving or else. I will not live the rest of my days with an old man with a ruined reputation. You have until the end of the day to pull whatever levers are necessary to reverse this horrible death spiral our economy is in.? Position Summary: Two shorts and one long closed today. Don?t want to be caught in front of a freight train next week with a full load of shorts. Half Short: MBI at $50 KLAC at $41 CYMI at $39 NVLS at $35 INTC at $18 MSFT at $56 WHR at $56 INTU at $49 Closed at $43 AMGN at $53 CSCO at $14 ORCL at $12 DELL at $25 Closed at $25 SBUX at $23 QCOM at $37 COH at $32 Quarter Short: FRE at $68 LEN at $56 COCO at $40 NCEN at $28 CFC at $55 SYMC at $47 Half Long: GG at $11 HL at $4.55 BGO at $1.31 PAAS at $5 DROOY at $3.35 GLG at $9 GSS at $1.72 WHT at $1.05 KGC at $2.35 HMY at $16 Closed at $14 GFI at $12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 so nice to have booked profits on MMM when it 120.50 the other day.... SG wimps cover taunt not withstanding..... The idea of trading is to make a profit not pick the exact tops and bottoms.... Show me the guy who can do that and I will show you a person who is self deceived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaming Turds Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Hey dude I found this gem last night while reading earnings releases. This one is losing money which I know is shocking...you might want to short it in honor of the times. Ok Ive edited this four freakin times and no matter what I do it wont post right so I give up posting stuff heres the link if anyone feels like cut and pasting it. Its for Matrix Bancorp http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=MTXC,uu[l,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G PS. you might want to consider updating your KGC entry price times 3 to clarify the 1 for 3 reverse. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=kgc,uu[h,a]dacayyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9] Kramer was/is the kiss of death for golds here in the short term. I think we need a big shakeout to reset this market kinda like when gold went down to 298 ( broke the 300 level and everybody just about died!) I see a breach of 330 doing the same thing this time around. ( I will wait with anticipppppppation ready to buy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Thanks mark,another week of profits that vanished in seconds.I think any spike on tues will be a huge gift for the shorts.all previous intermediate "bottoms" had much more volume and much higher vix readings. Like me and doc discussed yesterday,I have "rally phobia" and for damn good reason! 300 dow points in about 10 trading HOURS! 50 nasgap points in about 10 trading HOURS! 27 S&P points in about 10 trading HOURS! Blowouts this extreme usually come right before the waterfall pattern hits.and as usual the buying was in the same 10 stocks.The deeper we go in the great bear market,the shorter and sharper the rallies. They don't get much sharper that what we just saw in just 10 hours.rallied right to resistance on all indicies too. Its the bulls that need to worry IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 If we just saw an intermediate bottom, does this mean the "descent into march 13" time scenario is no longer valid? I still think we head down Tues, but like wndysrf says, gotta keep an open mind ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Intraday trading board is fun but may be too emotional over there. The Bears are so entrenched that no one saw this coming yesterday. Not good, too committed to one side. All this Arch Crawford talk in the morning and soothsaying. I think its mostly bogus and Crawford will get blasted right out of his positions at open on Tuesday just like he was blown out twice already today. Serves him right gaming short for a disaster setup on Sunday and then concluding his newsletter with prayers for peace and sanity. I don't like hypocrites much, especially not in this arena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Here's another timing-guru's take: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...ssage_id=766889 Thinks another 20-35 COMPX points possible to to the upside before we hit resistance; should be 100 pts lower on the COMPX by end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Buddha, Arch is not the only one who's been predicting Astro bad vibes for this weekend. Other astro types (see Hoodwink's messages back to Dec.) have been in concurrence. These predictions came out months ago, before any Iraq resolution/plans were announced. Dont you think it's kinda weird coincidence that just two days ago, the Bush admin comes out with warnings for this weekend, too? Let's hope that ALL of these warnings are wrong, for everyone's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 14, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Mr. Hanky: I caught a lot of heat for even mentioning the low volume decline as a prelude to a major bounce. But I'm sticking with my promise of giving everyone ample warning of a bounces during 2003. Including the possibility of a new cyclical bull rally. Not warning and staying short the entire time in 2002 was a disaster, and we lost lots of traders then. I believe that even Merciless got blown out, and that's why we haven't heard from him. Today, we lost Fxfox. Do not know how these guys can sleep at night playing these options. Lucky for me, my trades are spread out pretty good, so I don't get whipsawed as much. I will likely close all stocks that went up on high volume like DELL (sign of strength), and reload later with weaker stocks which didn't move as well today. Healthcare and drugs is a good example of a weak sector which didn't get heatmapped. Lots of arguing about all the different pundits, predictions, methods, etc. lately. But the rate we are going now, Capitalstool is losing members because not enough attention is being paid to the long side. The massive "3rd of 3rd" wave down will happen, I'm not so sure that its happening now. Better off covering first, ask questions later. Preserving capital should be the highest priority. If you are wrong, and have to re-enter the trade at a worse price, that's still better than getting your butt blown off in these 10 hour hysteria jams. The goal here should be to help everyone stay out of harm's way, as well as make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Happy VD everyone... Have a grape weekend (hic).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Amen, Wndysrf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 mark,all my short position is done through drcvx. don't mess with individual stocks except for the occasional 10 or 20 puts here and there. plus my entire position is only about 15% of my assets,the rest is in cash!after this horrible day I am probably down only $1,500 or so...no biggie.I miss the profits on the downside too with the much smaller positions I play. Like I said a few times before,I don't trust this market long or short so I don't play the games I used to play in 99' or 00'.I lost my nerve in the last few years and don't commit bigtime anymore.It's frustrating enough giving back a few thou in the last few days.for those who don't know,a few years ago I would have 10-30 k swings in a day in my accounts(even lost 70k on one trade once).I'm fed up with getting crushed on either side and will not risk it all anymore. I feel alot more comfortable trading now than I did a year ago.but I have the tolerence for pain of a 90 year old retiree now...lol.I'm just a blue collar worker now and it would take too long to make it back if I play too risky.I guess I learned from my mistakes but I am terrified of trading the long side since I have been crushed too many times. staying short and not too worried,another 5% move would start to freak me out though. egads!...drcvx crushed for .12 today.I hope I get some overtime at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 (hic) One more thing... Tom O'Brien has Jerry Favors on this afternoon, if you missed it be sure and listen to the archived interview when you get a chance. This guy is mucho articulate, no question he is an authority on T/A. He gives some important Gann weekly chart information for next week that you might find helpful. www.tfnn.com (hic) Enjoy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Here's an excellent view from Dirk Hettridge on Stockcharts.com. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=QQQ,uu[w,a]eaclyiay[d20][pd20,2!c200!h.02,.20!c10!c5!i!f][vc60][ill14!le12,26,9!lh14,3!lb14!lm12!lg!lf!le5,20,1][J7070142,Y] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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