Jetlag Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 Solar storm = more propensity to sell http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0305b.pdf "Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week's stock returns for all U.S. stock market indices." How significant is the correlation? "Raps, Stoupel, and Shimshoni (1992) document a significant 0.274 Pearson correlation between monthly numbers of first psychiatric admissions and sudden magnetic disturbances of the ionosphere" Statisticians usually mock that the World is correlated at 0.3 The graph on page 51 (n 49) looks interesting. 6 days after solar storms the average return in US stock markets is around 1%, while outside of those days it's north of 3%. Wonder what would happen if they corrected the upward bias, or calculated different windowed time periods, like bull market vs bear market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 Them Fun Manglers ran for the hills http://naaim.org/naaimadsenttrend.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 No change on my end. Thought about adding to my shorts but the move above 12900 put me on high alert. Gameover called the back test of 12900. Good call. Great to see you back, Madness. Let's not anyone forget that you made an excellent call yourself. You-- and KW too-- very clearly called the decline that occurred earlier this week, even while getting a ton of flack about that correct bearish call from bullish folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gameover Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 here's what i'm thinking on the Dow: 12920/10dma is crucial, above that and recent highs or more coming. a mini h&s top is forming and the past 2 days appears for now to be the right shoulder a break below 12740 activates the pattern for a target of 12430 lets keep this potential gap n crap going btw, thanks madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bundys_dodge Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 Sure, give money to Wall Street cowboys who would leverage up on oil/gold/commodities and what not, then 'sterilize' by taking money from widow's and orphan's 0.1% yield money market funds. Sounds like a great plan... Sounds like you listened to the podcast and read Aaron's article. Dr. Bernankestein’s Latest Mad Monster Creation That is an amusing coinkydinky!. Great minds think alike and all . Podcast is the only service I have not subscribed and haven't read Aaron in a while... Now that you have mentioned it, I will checkout Aaron's article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 A close above 1363 on S&PEE would setup a test of the highs and would raise a serious red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 Great to see you back, Madness. Let's not anyone forget that you made an excellent call yourself. You-- and KW too-- very clearly called the decline that occurred earlier this week, even while getting a ton of flack about that correct bearish call from bullish folks. I must not be reading the board. I did not see "a ton of flack." I guess it depends on what a "ton" is. I don't see the point of the scorekeeping and refereeing. I'd rather see less of it. Let people state their opinions. I mean, we had one down day, and it seems to me that you're criticizing those who've expressed bullish views. The market is still rangebound. Until the range is broken, do we really know who was right and who was wrong, and does it even matter? Virtually everyone here trades different time frames. What matters is whether the trader profits more often than not within their typical holding period. In most cases here, both those with a bullish viewpoint and those with a bearish viewpoint are able to do that successfully. Otherwise they wouldn't still be here after 11 1/2 years. I may not always agree with their current viewpoints, but I respect everyone's opinion who's been here for a long time. Each and every one of them has proven themselves to be a great trader, in my view. I also enjoy the tongue in cheek sarcasm of many of our posters. It's fun and funny, whether it be bearish or bullish. I can see and hear the underlying smirking, and I get a kick out of it, I guess because I can see the point. It's mostly harmless and never meant to be mean or hurtful to any other posters. On the other hand, schoolmarmish and sometimes back handed scolding of others, and "third party protectionism" is something I can do without. I find it really irritating. Those are my thoughts. Take them as you wish. Let's get back to short market observations, trading, and having a little fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 That is an amusing coinkydinky!. Great minds think alike and all . Podcast is the only service I have not subscribed and haven't read Aaron in a while... Now that you have mentioned it, I will checkout Aaron's article. In that case, you are apparently exceptionally wise, insightful, and well edumacated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 Great to see you back, Madness. Let's not anyone forget that you made an excellent call yourself. You-- and KW too-- very clearly called the decline that occurred earlier this week, even while getting a ton of flack about that correct bearish call from bullish folks. Not really going anywhere nor do i plan to. Over the years, depending on time frame everyone has been right. Market been doing 25-30% swings on the weekly charts in both directions. Let's see where we are by mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 If this morning's little pullback becomes a measuring point, we're gonna be looking at a very big up day. It would become a measuring point if they take out the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 Bears really need to keep the action within the box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gameover Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 interesting that rut is red, but a/d still overwhemling bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 interesting that rut is red, but a/d still overwhemling bullish MOMO on AAPL gone. This market needs new leaders to go higher or else we're going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gameover Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 10min indices are Dover Sole using currencies as a barometer, this decline from the o/n highs in equities is fake, as currencies sitting at hod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 Smooth sailing from here on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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