Jump to content

Annudder Day Annuder Day


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 300
  • Created
  • Last Reply

What happens next?

 

Looks like the mo-mo gamers are buying calls hand over fist on the myriad Parabolic Horsemen: RIMM, GOOG, AAPL, MA, AMZN, XOM, COP, CVX, etc.

 

But the bulk of the macro HedgeFunds are gaming a "cataclysmic collapse" by shorting the indexes via puts.

 

After all, why buy puts on an individual stock when you could get blown out by an LBO announcement?

 

 

 

Perhaps there are three reasons for the current "panic" to buy stocks:

 

1) Most of the macro players in the hedge fund community have been heavily short baskets of stocks:

 

Check out:

 

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commenta...s.aspx?ID=19680

 

2) Central banks may be sanitizing dollars by buying U.S. equities

 

3) Huge asset re-allocation may be underway, away from bonds and into stocks by pension funds, etc.

 

Interesting that today, that despite the biggest one day rally in 3 years, and a technical breakout to new, lifetime highs, the put/call ratio was skying most of the day.

 

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

 

On April 3 of this year, after the March "Panic", the market climbed out of the hole and was ready to break out to new highs.

 

I recorded the CBOE total put/call ratio moving averages at that time:

 

90-day 1.03

120-day 1.01

180-day .99

 

Here we are, breaking out again to new, all-time record highs again in the Dow, S & P, and Transports.

 

As of today's close:

 

90-day .97

120-day .97

180-day .97

240-day .96

360-day .95

 

That means it will take a minimum of a 6 month "searing rally" and possibly up to a 12-month rally to work off this bearishness.

 

As an example, going into the April - May 2006 top, before that big commodity stock correction, the 180-day put/call ratio sank to a 52-week low of .78. Coincidently, that's when gold topped at $718 or so. Look how far it has to drop before we reach the same state of "bullishness".

 

And, a week ago, the Rydex Ratio reached a new world record divergence with the OEX, as the OEX was within 2% of all -time record highs, and all the Rydex participants were fully loaded in the bear funds or money market funds.

 

Looks to me like we are heading into a Weimar Blowoff, or simply in another 1999 Boner Run, led by the CRX.

post-184-1184376043_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OT.

 

Tomorrow is Roger's last concert of what was almost a two year tour. I'll be up in Toronto to see em jam one mo time. Anybody else know who Roger Waters is besides Suds and Windy?

591174[/snapback]

 

 

A saw Roger at the Irvine Amplitheater a few weeks ago.

 

It was Epic. Played the entire "Dark Side of the Moon", most of "Wish You Were Here", and a couple of other tidbits.

 

Pigs were flying!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the front of the building.......

 

Two weeks ago.

591177[/snapback]

 

Wyndy

 

I remeber some time ago a friend of mine went into a building similar to the one above; he simply wanted to get some lunch----Upon exiting the lunchroom he was greeted, to his chagrine, by a hail of gunfire...At his funeral his wife whispered to me that her husband failed to see and stop at the commands of the gunweilding officers invisibly ensconced high above on sheilded watchtowers..

 

Im telling you Wyndy, that all of these lateblooming commercial properties are like windbreaker jackets:Easily convertible into whatever is required no matter which direction the business wind is blowing...

 

I myself,so easily intimidated raerly get within a quarter mile of these behemoths,so formidable looking are they....Rumour has it that ,in imitation of the Egyptians, many of the constructiion workers just after finishing their sections,are immediately cast into very deep pits, never to be heard from again...

 

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: Believe it or not---oi vau iz mir--toot vai-Ai

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quick shoutout to fellow Stoolies....

 

In the Philippines for the past 9 months........have hardly paid attention to the markets which is just as well. Instead focused on my recycling business and in general setting up shop here in PI. I reserve plenty of time for the beach, touring, & enjoying my 3 little goobers (twin girls born June 12th, Philippine Independence Day)! Coming back to the states and out of hibernation next month...

 

Mmmmmmmmmmmm.... bullish on coconuts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

and on cardboard (OCC). my operator makes 125 pesos a day, or $2.70. a day. the 450 kilo bales you see are moved by a pallet jack and men. arranged by hand into a sea container...

 

$2.70 a day...it feeds his family and that's it. tough life here. i've seen more death here in 9 months than 28 years in the US.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bullish on tin....all this tin came from a fire earlier that day. In PI, people run TOWARDS fires, not away. they grab as much as they can to sell to junk shops like ours. laborer makes $2.70 a day, you can imagine how CRAZY people are about copper here...it's a currency.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What happens next?

 

Looks like the mo-mo gamers are buying calls hand over fist on the myriad Parabolic Horsemen:  RIMM, GOOG, AAPL, MA, AMZN, XOM, COP, CVX, etc.

 

But the bulk of the macro HedgeFunds are gaming a "cataclysmic collapse" by shorting the indexes via puts.

 

After all, why buy puts on an individual stock when you could get blown out by an LBO announcement?

 

 

 

Perhaps there are three reasons for the current "panic" to buy stocks:

 

1)  Most of the macro players in the hedge fund community have been heavily short baskets of stocks:

 

Check out:

 

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commenta...s.aspx?ID=19680

 

2)  Central banks may be sanitizing dollars by buying U.S. equities

 

3)  Huge asset re-allocation may be underway, away from bonds and into stocks by pension funds, etc.

 

Interesting that today, that despite the biggest one day rally in 3 years, and a technical breakout to new, lifetime highs, the put/call ratio was skying most of the day.

 

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

 

On April 3 of this year, after the March "Panic", the market climbed out of the hole and was ready to break out to new highs.

 

I recorded the CBOE total put/call ratio moving averages at that time:

 

90-day  1.03

120-day 1.01

180-day .99

 

Here we are, breaking out again to new, all-time record highs again in the Dow, S & P, and Transports.

 

As of today's close:

 

90-day .97

120-day .97

180-day .97

240-day .96

360-day .95

 

That means it will take a minimum of a 6 month "searing rally" and possibly up to a 12-month rally to work off this bearishness.

 

As an example, going into the April - May 2006 top, before that big commodity stock correction, the 180-day put/call ratio sank to a 52-week low of .78.  Coincidently, that's when gold topped at $718 or so.  Look how far it has to drop before we reach the same state of "bullishness".

 

And, a week ago, the Rydex Ratio reached a new world record divergence with the OEX, as the OEX was within 2% of all -time record highs, and all the Rydex participants were fully loaded in the bear funds or money market funds.

 

Looks to me like we are heading into a Weimar Blowoff, or simply in another 1999 Boner Run, led by the CRX.

591183[/snapback]

 

Wyndy

 

Very nice analysis--my take on the markets behaviour the past few days leads me to believe that the PPT is setting us up for a "disgestible " fall--it has to, even though, by all appearances, it seems to be invincibly powerful in manipulation...

 

BECAUSE like all species in nature they ,both bulls and bears, for a very long and dangerouuus time, mistakenly believe in what they see;for instance, a puffed addder for a friendly worm.

 

You know the results of this misperception....over and over and over it,the prey, is fooled , suffering all the while a mortality rate that points to extinction..

 

Lo, its at this time some of surviving members of the mortally endangered specie begin to catch on..that the appearanc is deceiving...and soon the survival rate shoots up..

 

Meanwhile the predator adopts new tactics and occasionaly, for whatever reason nature graces it with, mercifully permits its prey to live...Maybe in some anamalistic way it recognises how dangerously close to extinction its food supply is becoming...and so must curb its instinct for camaflouging its murderous nature beneath an angelic pose which itself is fast becoming the insigniaa of death..

 

So similarly are the sheeple and zealous bulls failing to respond to the 300 point erections losing their powerfully duplicitous nature....the dog just aint hunting like it used to..and so now it must begin sacrifycing species (stock sectors)...to the bears lest it become so patently fraudulent that even a credulous ape wont paw at it

 

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: Believe it or not---ooof! ouch--you sob y i'll oi!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bullish on tin....all this tin came from a fire earlier that day.  In PI, people run TOWARDS fires, not away.  they grab as much as they can to sell to junk shops like ours.  laborer makes $2.70 a day, you can imagine how CRAZY people are about copper here...it's a currency.

591188[/snapback]

 

 

At that demo site I posted above, virtually everything was being sorted to be recycled.

 

Steel beams, aluminum panels, rebar, concrete, whatever.

 

Chopped up and hauled away in huge containers.

 

Any wonder why these steel recycling outfits are printing money and skying to new highs???

 

big.chart?symb=schn&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=11546&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=6389&mocktick=1&rand=9333

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...