anoscope Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 That such forums are available to the general public, free of charge, is a blessing and a priviledge that each of us should appreciate. ?It's a new world that we live in, and this opportunity to communicate with total strangers around the globe in real time brings incredible advantages that many seem to taken for granted. I'll second that. Before internet bulletin boards existed, you might have a few friends locally with common interests. Or you could communicate by phone or letter with more distant acquaintances. Real-time conversation with people worldwide is new and very cool. It's probably changing society in unforeseen ways even now. Last night I was talking to a friend who's slowing losing her hearing. Her middle frequency response is suppressed. That's the frequency range which makes speech intelligible. She described with frustration being unable to hear the difference between 'yes' and 'no' in a phone conversation, and asking the caller to send an e-mail, and waiting for the e-mail to arrive. I suggested to her to find an online community on a topic which interests her. She could "converse" in writing all day with like-minded people. What a great thing for the deaf and hearing-impaired. It's surprising how many people use e-mail and the internet, but have never participated in online forums. Capitalstool is one of the best "for people like us." (come back, TE!) some states offer voice to "TTY" relays. A web based (no TTY needed at all) is available at https://www.ip-relay.com/index.htm aside: I do interpretation for the deaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Or is it all this worth-less crap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyGoldenStool Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 The market is going much lower than current levels. The market will reach fair value and even become cheap -- it ALWAYS does after a bubble. Every bubble in every asset class in America in the 20th century went below the trendline, and that's 680 on the S&P. We will not bottom at valuation levels above that of nearly every market top, outside the bubble. Again, it will not be different this time "just because." Just to throw out a little contrarian thinking, stock ownership among the general populace, in general terms, has never been higher than it is now. Given that fewer real professionals and more investment banks are handing out the advice for free, and given the fact that there has been no real selling by J6P, and lastly given the investment alternatives to the stock market, does no one here believe that it may not return to "fair valuation" levels, let alone become cheap, for perhaps years to come? When reading the Yahoo boards, the attitude is always "I've waited it out this long, so what have I got to lose by holding at this point?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eifuku-san Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 "Let's assume that your conjecture regarding FRB is correct. I have one question, one that I haven't yet seen addressed by you or other posters. What system should be put in place of FRB? " I've been wondering that myself. Once the current system collapses the standard of living will be in the toilet anyway don't you get it yet? Yes I'm going the be teaching physicists how to dig ditches with their bare hands... "effectively" once the welfare money they extract off of everyone else in society for their employment schemes runs out. I'm beginning to get the unfortunate impression that you're far more interested in seeing the current system collapse (and those that didn't heed your warnings severely punished) than coming up with an alternative scenario. (Not unlike religious ascetics who begrudge the fact that those around them are enjoying life while they themselves practice denial and thus consol themselves by happily imagining the punishments awaiting those who did not join them.) You also seem to have an inordinate dislike of physicists. Which, to put it in the most favourable light, is rare. Sounds like some physicist(s) have taken you to task in the past over some of your claims. However, before drawing any conclusions, I'll repeat my question: Do you have another model for making capital available for investment that would be a viable alternative to FRB? This is a minor example of how the system works... You need income, so you get a job and do it...you get better at it until you have mastered it... You want to buy a house but don't have $200,000 so you go to a bank and ask them for a loan... you put down $20,000 and get a mortgage for $180,000 After 1 year what is the cost of borrowing $180,000? ...The "loan" is at 6% for 30 years the monthly payments are $1079.19 When you go to a bank for a loan the bank doesn't have anything to loan you because it is you who have the income that the bank wants. The $180,000 was created out of thin air...the income the bank recieves is created out of thin air do you create your income out of thin air? or do you work for it? Another example you ask me if you can borrow $100 and I say "Your in luck because I'm a banker" I whip out a napkin and write $100 on it and put my official stamp on it, then hand it to you... You are shocked and say "This is only a napkin it is not worth anything" I say "But I am a Banker and all the bankers accept my napkins because I accept theirs" Then I get you to sign a piece of paper agreeing to pay me back plus interest of 10% after 1 year, you owe me $110 after 1 year but I only gave you a napkin with $100 written on it with a crayon... What's a better system than Fractional Reserve Banking? all consumers including Govermnents are hopelessly dependant on Bankers for their power to create "money" out of thin air...So if Bankers are the Hand that gives and consumers are the hand that takes then Bankers are above everyone else...So to answer your question...You would have to ask a Banker what a better system is, and the answer will alway be "There is no better system" What the bankers don't inform the consumers of though is that the system has a maximum potential to produce debt inflation... The system runs needs debt inflation to function...Consumers (You and me) are dependant on debt inflation to pay for our existance and to produce our income. But when the maximum potential for the system to produce debt inflation is reached the debt begins deflating and the ability for consumers to exist becomes harder and incomes begins to dry up... We are at the point in the lifespan of the system where the consumers have basically run out of their ability to borrow ever greater amounts of debt to support their income... The current debt backed by debt fractional reserve system is based on debt inflation to service the money supply which is debt... A consumer must use present income, Prevoiously created debt, as collateral to service newly created debt which is future income... or some other piece of debt inflated collateral to create future income... If consumers began saving instead of borrowing the system would begin to collapse. If consumers do not borrow enough to sustain exponential debt inflation the system would begin to collapse. If consumers reach their maximum potential to use present income to service future income the system begins to collapse. If consumers save don't borrow enough or reach the maximum potential then debt deflation begins and will eventually pass the point of no return where debt deflation or contraction of the money supply which is 97% created out of thin air debt becomes unstoppable and debt deflation runs to it's maximum potential... The education system which is funded by banks produces ignorant victims for the banks...debt sponges would you submit to a system that has a 100% chance of collapsing if you knew about it?(The basic mechanics of the system have not changed for 1000's of years and has collapsed each and every time it is in use...it is based on systemically flawed logic) That is why you don't know about it...No sane human would submit to such a system... Alternatives? The present system has 2 alternatives Inflate Debt...or Die If you can not inflate debt by the required amount to sustain debt inflation you die Changing the system? there is no way to change the system while it is in opperation...after it collapses there is a slim chance but the general population is desperate to get back to the good old days and Fractional reserve banking is the only solution offered... The money supply starts out as barter until the maximum potential is reached then it is a gold and silver money supply until the maximum potential is reached then it is a fractional reserve gold and silver system until the maximum potential is reached then it is a fractional debt backed by debt system until the maximum potential is reached... Then it is game over or the last system is a hyperinflationary system where non debt backed by debt printed money is basically dumped on street corners by dump trucks in a last dich effort to ignite exponential debt inflation for the last time... The longer Fractional reserve banking is in operation the weaker it becomes... from 1692 to 1971 the Gold backed system was used and collapsed many times but was reconstructed after the power consolidation phase... from 71 to now we have been operating with a debt backed system for 32 years which is basically at the maximum potential if a hyperinflationary system is put in place we would get maybe 2 years max... The gold and silver money supply system lasted 100's of years and the barter system lasted 1000's Until we break free from FRB there is no effective way to sustain the modern civilization we have grown to love for very long... We are just are lucky enough to be alive at this point in the lifespan of the system on the verge of a complete and total collapse... But since the education system doesn't devote 1 milisecond to the study of the basic mechanics of fractional reserve banking very few human beings can even begin to comprehend the realities of it or find a solution to it... Try to find a solution to the problem of having to breathe, stop breathing...it will only be a matter of time untill the only conclusion you arrive at is "inflate lungs or die..." FRB is the most diabolical manmade construct in the history of human existance... It is a paragon of evil. You are just confused by the effects you see around you...soon it will all change... You and everyone else on the planet are at the complete mercy of a system which has no mercy. The system could be changed if there was awareness of it's mechanics by enough people but so far the information age has to date produced ZERO. Most people are far too smart to do anything about their stupidity. Will I laugh? You bet... I've been called a Communist, an anti American anti capitalist terrorist, recieved death threats, and did some jail time trying to change the system... Just by trying to inform people of the truth...no one cares really. Fractional reserve banking is the cause and when you open your eyes in the morning that is the effect... right now the only alternative is inflate or die and I'm looking for the miracle that I'm wrong every day...If it doesn't show up in 6-10 months then it never will... When my children turn on me and demand to know why the world is so fvcked and want an explanation as to why I let it happen...I'll inform them that I at least tried but no one cared, they are just too afraid of dying. It's almost over... Once the system collapses the owners will have a free hand to shoot first and ask questions later... HT: When you go to a bank for a loan the bank doesn't have anything to loan you because it is you who have the income that the bank wants. EFK: I'm sorry, but there is no a priori reason that this should be the case. People with mortages on their homes apply for and receive other types of loans including business loans. Unless, of course, their credit rating is horrific. But from what I've read, in the current US lending enviroment, if one has a pulse, then one is eligeable for a loan. HT: The $180,000 was created out of thin air. EFK: Regretably, this is also incorrect. In a traditional bank, the $180,000 came from the depositors that belong to the bank. Ie., their deposits. Or a credit union if you prefer. To simplify the current model, I've ignored the current trend to "securitize" everything that isn't nailed down (and even things that are). Btw, most of this securitization will probably be exposed as fraud. An international bank has to keep 8% of assets on reserve as specfied by the BIS - Bank of International Settlements. Two issues here. o Is 8% too low? Probably. o What are the nature of the asset that can be counted as reserves. In Japan, the banks were permitted to count company shares at purchase value as reserves. This was great while the market was rising, but has proven to be problematic as the Nikkei has fallen. In the US, securitization, mis-evaluation of the securitized assest, and their multiple round-tripping or leveraging will probably lead to problems. However, this is not a problem with FRB per se, but rather bad judgement at best and fraud at worst related to assiging appropriate value and risk to various asset classes. HT: If consumers began saving instead of borrowing the system would begin to collapse. EFK: Consumers do save in the the US. On average about 4% of income. What level of consumer saving would cause the economic system stress is what's important here. 100% would cause economic collapse anywhere. What about 8%?16%? 32%? What is the threshold? HT: If consumers do not borrow enough to sustain exponential debt inflation the system would begin to collapse. EFK: What is enough? Again, what is the estimated threshold? HT: money supply which is 97% created out of thin air EFK: The money supply is a different issue then FRB. Noland has argued, correctly in my opinion, that the GSEx, which are not bound by any FRB requirements, have been major contributors to the rapid increase in the money supply. Btw, which type of "money" are we talking about here? MZM, M1, M2, and/or M3? HT: The gold and silver money supply system lasted 100's of years and the barter system lasted 1000's EFK: I think it's a safe bet that most people would not wish to return to the barter system. I don't care much for the idea of raising chickens to pay for the gas for my car with eggs. As for gold and silver, I've outlined the problems with such a system in a previous post this weekend. A " Monetary Unit" with value fix to a quantity of commodities such as specified by the Roger Raw Materials Fund is one alternative that I can think of off the top of my head. Rogers Raw Materials Fund HT: Will I laugh? You bet... EFK: It would appear that my initial impressions are correct. HT: I've been called a Communist, an anti American anti capitalist terrorist, recieved death threats, and did some jail time trying to change the system... Just by trying to inform people of the truth...no one cares really. EFK: From your sig, it appears that you are Canadian. From my experiences, Canada is a liberal and civil country with a legal code based on British Common Law. What did you do to receive jail time? Did you break a law? Laws? Did you threaten someone? With violence? Throughout history, countless men have suffered imprisonment, been tortured, and killed for their beliefs. Unfortunately, this says nothing as to whether their beliefs were right or wrong. HT: It's almost over... EFK: 6 to 10 months by your reckoning. So your conjecture will be put to the test shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Bontchev is in Bulgaria, I believe, and said he would be out of pocket for a while. Blackbelt is off, too, as I recall. If you've left 'cause your pissed off, come back. I'm sure there are days (or many times during a day) that Doc wonders what he got himself into. I know my business responsibilities become very burdensome when my personal life falls apart, every now and then. Personally, I don't have time to sift through the shit to find the diamonds. If you can't discuss the topics without getting personal or vindictive, try another thread. (there are many threads besides M2M). Every night on M2M is getting like this. The paid thread (Stooltrader) is much more topical and full of like minded people (those who are skeptical of everything, but not wanting to see the end of the world, because we won't be able to trade then). It's where I'll spend most of my time from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 The market is going much lower than current levels. The market will reach fair value and even become cheap -- it ALWAYS does after a bubble. Every bubble in every asset class in America in the 20th century went below the trendline, and that's 680 on the S&P. We will not bottom at valuation levels above that of nearly every market top, outside the bubble. Again, it will not be different this time "just because." Just to throw out a little contrarian thinking, stock ownership among the general populace, in general terms, has never been higher than it is now. Given that fewer real professionals and more investment banks are handing out the advice for free, and given the fact that there has been no real selling by J6P, and lastly given the investment alternatives to the stock market, does no one here believe that it may not return to "fair valuation" levels, let alone become cheap, for perhaps years to come? When reading the Yahoo boards, the attitude is always "I've waited it out this long, so what have I got to lose by holding at this point?". i think they may get their answer and it will dawn on them "in mass". they will sell into the crapitulation bottom and until they crapitulate, there is no bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasyAl Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Does anyone have an explanation for how "personal Income" can be rising coincedent with increasing layoffs and lack of employee bargaining power? I am truly stumped by this statistic and I can't reconcile it with reality. ?The closest I can come is to posit that goobermint statisticians only count earnings among those currently employed (thereby excluding the unemployed and 'recently discouraged') and divide this number by those currently employed. But even this is hard to reconcile. ?The most recent 0.3% monthly rise translates into a yearly 3.6% increase and I can assure you that most of the companies for whom I consult this is the upper bound for 2003, not an average. Further, for all those formerly employed by software development firms who are now working at the gap, the numbers must be even worse. ?At best a 10% drag on their personal incomes (but 30% - 70% being a more likely approximation). I can only assume that 'they' count CEO salaries as well as burger flippers and come up with an average that looks reasonable. Or they are performing the worst sort of statistical revisionsim to keep things looking perky. Please, I am at a loss to understand and am open to all suggestions/interpretations. Harry Dent has pointed the discrepancy between income tax revenue and personal income number. The fundament cause of the discrepancy in personal income and tax revenue number is US government's statistic mirage, which is called "Imputations in the National Income and Product Accounts". For year 2002, it has been estimated that at least $1.7 Trillion, out of 11.5 trillion GDP is imputed. A few month ago, Richard Benson wrote a very good article on the imputation. Here are some quotes: What is an imputation, and why should we care? ?Imputations are the part of GDP that the government decides to estimate, where no cash changed hands, kind of like we ?scratched each other?s backs?. ?Wouldn?t it be a tragedy if this type of activity wasn?t counted as REAL GDP? ?Some of the largest numbers are for items such as $300 billion of Personal Income, imputed for the value of ?having a checking account (free of charge); $680 billion for the value of owner occupied housing (you should really be paying yourself rent), and $65 billion for the benefit people get from using the property of nonprofit institutions, like going to a church or having a place to hang out during the day. ?We believe the $300 billion for the value of checking accounts doesn?t even pass the laugh test. Perhaps there was value back in the 1950?s when it was expensive to clear checks and a case could be made for some measure of value. ?But, in today?s world, just try and bounce a check, use your ATM card in Europe, or pay your credit card one day late. ? Banks charge fees in the hundreds of billions of dollars, in real cash. ?To boost Personal Income by $300 billion (where no cash changes hands) because banks don?t charge you enough for the privilege of living off your float, is a joke! ? Even when you have deposited a check into your account, and the bank has good funds, they can easily take up to a week or two to clear those funds for use. Banks are so friendly! Why do these imputations really matter? ?Our economy has become a debt driven economy. ?Consumers routinely spend 10% more than they make each year by taking on more debt. ?Debt service and debt total levels are at record highs. ?However, debt can only be serviced with cash flow. ?With imputations there is no cash flow. ?While GDP might be $11.5 Trillion, the cash economy is less than $10 Trillion. ?The reality is that we have 15% less cash flow to service debt than we think. ?If corporations ?goosed? their revenues because they could use ?imputed revenues?, the management would go to jail. The implications of the data for Personal Income and Personal Saving are even worse! ?Not only is Personal Income overstated by $300 billion due to ?imputations for checking accounts, but total imputations in Personal Income total over $720 billion. ?The total includes such items as $90+ billion for owner occupied housing, and $350 billion of heath and life insurance paid for by corporations. ?While these have value, the individuals never touch the cash! ? The Personal Savings rate comes right out of ?Alice and Wonderland?. ?First, we have the mythical $300 billion in ?non-charged bank fees?, and the non-cash $90 billion in the rent home owners don?t charge themselves, pushing up personal savings. ?Then the government estimates the value on new home construction, less housing depreciation, which adds about $300 billion a year. ?Just taking out the imputations on housing for new construction less depreciation, swings the personal savings number from over a plus $300 billion to a minus $100 billion. ?If you take out the $300 billion in ?non-charged bank fees?, personal savings is running a negative $400 billion a year. The strangest thing is that housing is even part of ?savings?. ?The very concept of savings brings up the vision of an individual earning cash that they take to the bank and deposit in a savings account. If you look at Personal Income figures, the consumer is saving over 4% in the first quarter of 2003. ?If you look at the Flow of Funds data, even with this 4% rate of savings, household wealth declined. ?Obviously, something is rotten in the numbers. ?Because the US is in a massive housing bubble, flowing through the rising prices of homes directly into the calculation for savings makes the reported savings number look positive when it is actually negative (the Flow of Funds data just published by the Federal Reserve shows that Household wealth declined in the fist quarter of 2003). Why does this all matter? ?Looking at our analogy of a corporation with revenues and earnings, the farther away from cash the accounting becomes, the harder it is to decide if the firm is actually solvent or really profitable. ?The more revenues that have not yet been turned into cash, the less real profits are. ?For the US economy, the higher GDP, Personal Income, and Savings give a false read on the cash position of the consumer and the more our economy begins to look like the ?road runner? that has gone over the edge of the cliff, ?but hasn?t looked down?. (By the way, if you have a mortgage, don?t look down, and stop reading now.) I strongly urge interested stoolies to read the complete article titled Government Statistics: Lessons in Cooking and Spinning Edit: I just noticed that stoolie ChumpChange has provided essentially the same answer as I did here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 11, 2003 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Goldmember: Speaking of Capitol One and Supermodels.... Check out that TV spot where the dude loses his credit card overboard on the fishing boat? His buddy says not to worry, nobody will find it in the middle of the ocean. Next scene is full of gorgeous Supermodel mermaids spending away. Motorscooters, shell-shaped bras, jewelry, and all the rest. I wish I could capture that video in a still image. All those mermaids could be easily named: MXIM, KLAC, NVLS, etc...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Goldmember: Speaking of Capitol One and Supermodels.... Check out that TV spot where the dude loses his credit card overboard on the fishing boat? His buddy says not to worry, nobody will find it in the middle of the ocean. Next scene is full of gorgeous Supermodel mermaids spending away. Motorscooters, shell-shaped bras, jewelry, and all the rest. I wish I could capture that video in a still image. All those mermaids could be easily named: MXIM, KLAC, NVLS, etc...... ......I am also wondering what kind of plastic surgeon they visited and whether the expense versus results was worth it... ......A fresh 13-day cycle may not return enough value. ......but an early 6-7 week cycle surely will.... ......The lament of the Supermodel, fresh out of rehab and ready to party like it's 1999 again. ......only to burn out earlier than expected, but what a party while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudFox Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Where I disagree, is in your equal mistrust of gold. It is the ultimate hedge against a failing financial system and a terminal and impotent government. While gold is not something to be horded, it is your currency of last resort, long afer the Fed has run out of magic spells. It will soon serve its ultimate purpose and I would implore you to understand it's important roll in the later chapters of your doomsday scenario. There is hope. BudFox - you don't advise private ownership of gold in these times? By hording, I mean the accumulation of gold over the long term as an ultimate store of wealth. Throughout history, this obsession has been the cause of many a personal and societal financial ruin. The true value of gold is in its evolution as the de facto hedge against the inevitable devaluation of a paper currency. Governments seem fatally predestined to choose discretionary management of currency over a fixed exchange. Yet inflationary pressures seem an equally inevitable consequence of running a governement. The US dollar is the twentieth century's version of an historical theme. The dollar, just as other widely held currencies of the past, has been hailed as the ultimate measure of wealth during peaceful and prosperious times. But once the dollar is tested and it's value compromised, that faith in the currency is lost. No currency can survive forever. The US Dollar hegemony will soon be tested. Gold will once again be there as the ultimate flight to safety. But this too shall pass. I recommend one read "The Power of Gold" by Peter Bernstein for a better appreciation for the use and misuse of gold throughout history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Or is it all this worth-less crap: isnt that a bullish wedge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudFox Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Goldmember: Speaking of Capitol One and Supermodels.... Check out that TV spot where the dude loses his credit card overboard on the fishing boat? His buddy says not to worry, nobody will find it in the middle of the ocean. Next scene is full of gorgeous Supermodel mermaids spending away. Motorscooters, shell-shaped bras, jewelry, and all the rest. I wish I could capture that video in a still image. All those mermaids could be easily named: MXIM, KLAC, NVLS, etc...... I love the LendingTree.com commerical where the guy is bragging about his big new house, his new car, and all these other things he has.... "How do I do it? I'm in debt up to my eyeballs!", he says with smile. That'll be a classic in a few years! So sad, I can't help but laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 Where I disagree, is in your equal mistrust of gold. It is the ultimate hedge against a failing financial system and a terminal and impotent government. While gold is not something to be horded, it is your currency of last resort, long afer the Fed has run out of magic spells. It will soon serve its ultimate purpose and I would implore you to understand it's important roll in the later chapters of your doomsday scenario. There is hope. BudFox - you don't advise private ownership of gold in these times? By hording, I mean the accumulation of gold over the long term as an ultimate store of wealth. Throughout history, this obsession has been the cause of many a personal and societal financial ruin. The true value of gold is in its evolution as the de facto hedge against the inevitable devaluation of a paper currency. Governments seem fatally predestined to choose discretionary management of currency over a fixed exchange. Yet inflationary pressures seem an equally inevitable consequence of running a governement. The US dollar is the twentieth century's version of an historical theme. The dollar, just as other widely held currencies of the past, has been hailed as the ultimate measure of wealth during peaceful and prosperious times. But once the dollar is tested and it's value compromised, that faith in the currency is lost. No currency can survive forever. The US Dollar hegemony will soon be tested. Gold will once again be there as the ultimate flight to safety. But this too shall pass. I recommend one read "The Power of Gold" by Peter Bernstein for a better appreciation for the use and misuse of gold throughout history. not to be an idjit or anything, but do you advise against private ownership of physical gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 as an aside, I am just finishing up Peter Berstein's Against the Gods....and I'm pretty disappointed. He sounds like Greenspan on derivatives, but all along never mentions the underlying monetary system. I struggle to give any creedence to the idea that derivative financial instruments in the modern sense are the greatest thing since sliced bread when a closer look at the monetary unit of account might reveal the source of a big chunk of the uncertainty that calls for the use of the derivatives in the first place. How can you ignore such a thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted August 11, 2003 Report Share Posted August 11, 2003 very simple, yet direct post regarding demands of folks to offer alternatives... this is not a comment on a stoolie - it just got me thinking because i try to keep it simple. its just that i look around and everyone is in debt and being ENCOURAGED to get deeper and deeper. i look around and i see our manufacturing base and now portions of service sectors migrating overseas. i watch wimpy drive rates down and amount of confetti up. unemployment rising, hours worked and wages doing down and i see us making numerous LT commitments and changes in policy that will add to the drain on the treasury. then i watch people buy $800,000 tract homes with almost no money down and interest only ARMS . i can never, for the life of me, understand how a bank can loan $750,000 to a moron who is barely able to scratch together a 3% or 5% down payment... can you guys? and to top it off, no principal reduction in payment ? then the home goes up 15% and he sucks the new equity out and reloads at a higher debt level. i remind myself that if mexico cant compete with china, how will the US. i remind myself that debtors do not control their own destiny. i remind myself that borrow and consume is the road to the poor house not prosperity estates - had to trademark it before BARE. i remind myself that the winner of competitive currency devaluation is the country that best undermines and destroys their currency to support their export base - essentially exporting deflation... see where this goes? so a while back it looked like precious metals and miners. then a sprinkling of NG, which i actively trade (and would have been better off holding ). the point is that i never offered an alternative it just doesnt matter to me - im trying to profit from market conditions and trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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