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richmtn

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RANT :angry: :

A couple of weeks ago I expressed a desire to start a dialogue about intermdiate-term trading strategies. I began and continued the process with a number of long-term cycle charts in a top down approach including those in this thread. A number of people expressed an interest.

I thought there was a need at Capitalstool for this kind of analysis. Seems most of what is talked about on the stool is short-term TA and longer term funnymentals. Yet many of the subscribers are really intermediate-term players.

I have been disappointed. As of this moment I have not seen a single response to my analysis. Not one piece of constructive critisism or addition to what I posted.

I am no guru. I was hoping this would be a group effort. Everyone seems to like Doc's cycle work. Some say they are studying Hurst. Where are you? Are you just going to rely on Doc with an uncritical eye? Wouldn't it be great if we could add something to Doc's monster work. I am waiting to hear from you. <_<

 

 

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If the live charts don't update you need to refresh your screen.

 

We don't know and neither do they. Doc

 

 

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A little boy wanted $100 very badly and his mother told him to pray to God for it. He prayed and prayed for two weeks, but nothing turned up. Then he decided perhaps he should write God a letter requesting the $100.

 

When the sorting office received the letter addressed to God, they opened it up and decided to send it to the President.

 

The President was so impressed, touched and amused that he instructed his secretary to send the little boy a check for $5. He thought that this would appear to be a lot of money to a little boy.

 

The little boy was delighted with the $5 and sat down to write a thank-you letter to God:

 

Dear God, Thank you very much for the money. I noticed that you had to send it through Washington.

 

As usual, they deducted $95 for themselves.

 

 

Plus Rich's []Picture of the Night[/url]

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While we are waiting for the jam meisters to complete year-end madness let's look at the longer term charts again.

This time the Nasdaq. Even though I prefer looking at the S&P, whose charts I've already posted, the Nasdaq looks weaker and they rammed it up harder.

This is a weekly chart showing the 1, 2, 3, and 4 year Rate Of Change (ROC).

Rich's guess for previous and future tops and bottoms using ROC:

The 1 thru 5 year topped 03/2002.

 

The 1 year completed it's last bottom on 9/30/2002. It is already showing signs of flattening during this up phase. Weakness and or topping now would be quite bearish. I'm watching for a top.

 

The 2 year last topped 03/2002. It is in a downtrend. Bearish.

 

The 3 year topped 03/2000 and bottomed 09/2001. It appears to be topping now. Bearish.

 

The 4 year appears to have bottomed between 07/2002 and 10/2002. It should now be in an up phase but so far it is very weak and the ROC is well below the zero line.

 

The five year bottomed week-ending 7/29/2002 (not shown). The five year is still in a bottoming process and this could last several more months. Therefore I believe it to be a either negative or not a factor.

 

Every cycle from 6 to 70 years is in a downtrend.

As you can see the general tone of the indicators shown is negative. They are all below zero.

 

Conclusion:

These indicators taken as a whole are bearish. As intermediate-term players we would look to see continued weakness in the ones in up or topping phases. I would look for an entry on the next downturn of the 10-13 week cycle. Could be big.

post-2-1040350392_thumb.jpg

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Sunday December 15, 2002 : Weekly Market Comment

 

Copyright 2002, John P. Hussman, Ph.D., All rights reserved and actively enforced.

 

The Market Climate for stocks remains characterized by both unfavorable valuations and unfavorable trend uniformity, holding us to a defensive position - fully invested in a well diversified portfolio of favored stocks, with an offsetting hedge to remove the impact of overall market fluctuations from the portfolio.

...

That said, I would be surprised if the market did not recruit favorable trend uniformity at some point in the next several months, at which point we will accept a moderate amount of market risk (by closing down a portion of our hedges)...

 

Hussman Analysis

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Ano, you are a genius. I feel kind of demented and sick sitting at my computer laughing out loud, so I thoroughly enjoyed your latest work. :grin:

 

Might I suggest that you post all of your amazing products over at Stoolpourri so that those who do not visit here or IDS may also enjoy these fine foods? You have already created the breakfast of champions, not to mention at least two separate luncheon selections..... :P

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Guest AssMaster

S.Korea Poll Victor Seeks Changes in U.S. Alliance

 

SEOUL (Reuters) - President-elect Roh Moo-hyun called Friday for a revamp of South Korea's relationship with the United States, but ruled out radical change and pledged to work with Washington to curtail North Korea's nuclear arms program.

 

Roh, a 56-year-old human rights lawyer who won Thursday's presidential election after campaigning for greater autonomy from Washington, said he would propose amendments to a pact governing U.S. forces stationed in the South since the Korean War.

 

Washington, which favors a tougher line on the unpredictable and possibly nuclear-armed North than Roh and outgoing President Kim Dae-jung, put a brave face on the result, the latest indication that its popularity around the world may be waning.

 

http://dailynews.attbi.com/cgi-bin/news?e=...koreaelectiondc

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RANT :angry: :

A couple of weeks ago I expressed a desire to start a dialogue about intermdiate-term trading strategies. I began and continued the process with a number of long-term cycle charts in a top down approach including those in this thread. A number of people expressed an interest.

I thought there was a need at Capitalstool for this kind of analysis. Seems most of what is talked about on the stool is short-term TA and longer term funnymentals. Yet many of the subscribers are really intermediate-term players.

I have been disappointed. As of this moment I have not seen a single response to my analysis. Not one piece of constructive critisism or addition to what I posted.

I am no guru. I was hoping this would be a group effort. Everyone seems to like Doc's cycle work. Some say they are studying Hurst. Where are you? Are you just going to rely on Doc with an uncritical eye? Wouldn't it be great if we could add something to Doc's monster work. I am waiting to hear from you. <_<

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