buttugly Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 PileDriver: my only concern is VIX. I didn't always subscribe to Adam Hamilton's SPX/VIX theory but I ignored it and lost $. Yesterday you posted some stockcharts on VIX. What is your take on VIX & VXN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 would worry me if it were near 50 and/or we were in a decline that was "long in the tooth" but we are not and its only just beginning to rise. We've got a long way to go to get back there again. Who knows how high high really is and how far this decline may take us. I put lower weight on VIX b/c so many other indicators indicate we are in the early beginnings of a renewed slide. How it will unfold precisely is anyone's guess but I bet shorts placed at NAZ 1500 or so will be well rewarded. Even if it pops back to 1520 again which I doubt before it starts in earnest its worth staying short over long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 "No one in Americkanna or across the media waves of the Matrix pumpsters of Bloomberg and Fox cares even a Sow's hair for those who are set to be slaughtered." Well they should. Here's some 60-year-old advice from our own propagandists: Wasting your money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 pile - know if there's a theoretical VIX limit now that we've got curbs & collars (it was, what, 170-180 in crash of 1987)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 B4, Precther went Bull on Gold? Wow! Phat, even with collars I guess VIX could go anywhere it pleases. Like Brian4 said about "intervention", collars too just delay the inevitable and are manmade artificial mechanisms doomed to fail. So instead of getting a 300 point decline in one day we get two 150 pt decline days - what's the diff - sooner or later the piper must be paid !? Why does man always try to engineer Mother Nature? Never works in the long run. Human nature I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microdon Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 I don't know what Andy Grove said tonight, but as a computer VAR, I can tell you that several weeks ago, Intel cut prices dramatically on processors, as much as 55% on the so called fast 2.5GHz. Their margins have to be under pressure and revenues are only projected higher because of inventory restocking. If Grove evaded a guidance call, it's because he is running scared. The upgrade cycle (for individuals and businesses with computers more than 3 years old) just isn't happening with anywhere near the hoped for demand. Expect guidance lower for Q1 of 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 pile - know if there's a theoretical VIX limit now that we've got curbs & collars (it was, what, 170-180 in crash of 1987)? curbs & collars - jesus. i've had dinner AND a good meal, and now i'm eating some food. curbs & breakers. now that i've (*burp*) got that sorted, does anyone know if it's possible in theory to max out the VIX.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 Re-VIX and VXN- the VXN is not as reflective of the underlying security as the QQV is-if you are a Nazquack player QQV is the one you should be watching. Now in a declining market you need rises in the volatility indexes for the decline to continue-when the trend is locked in is when the indexes really jump that is the signal that the decline has progressed from narrow to broad-I was there in 87 and sure they went to the moon and they will again-that touch of 50 on vix was nothing-Bernie Schaeffer at the time noted it wasn't the beggining of the end because IF it WERE the VIX would be in the stratosphere. Phat the collars that exist today will mean that when the time comes the old record probably will be broken. In 87 the market was allowed to go from the penthouse to the basement in one fell swoop which got it flushed and overwith-the collars will simply allow pressure to build and build and build until the whole thing implodes. It will be interesting when the time comes to how reality measures up to theory-we are after all making and creating history here and the new benchmarks that go with it. trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midnite lightning Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 Looks like a mess is brewing! This ual business is going to hammer the dow and spx. They are predicting next week they will file ch.11. They say they have to pay a few billion next week for debt service. The problem is they don?t have it. What a nice present for the bears this Christmas. Those daily charts of the dow show me 41 indicators pointing south today. Yesterday it was 27. Looks like a sh#t storm is about to hit. Goggles on and mouth closed. Damn what is that smell? Mercy man where are you? Stoke the pits, get Lana ready, I am smelling some goooood bbq pork! Be careful my fellow stoolies. They will fight hard to keep this pig from the pits! Bloodhound, That nose of yours is amazing! First alert:-) Give you a hell of a lot of credit. You da man! CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 When was the last time the Summation looked like it does now? http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html If you answered January 2002 you are correct! If you stay long you lose. Things happen when the majority aren't looking for it to happen and for those who do but say it'll come later it usually comes sooner than expected. The farthest thing on anyone's mind right now is a severe decline. Guess what's most likely going to happen and perhaps sooner than later? ML, "Goggles on and mouth closed" - LOL...and shitshield up! PHAT, I knew there was something wrong there, knew what you meant, I was rushing my response. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 phat - the VIX is based on implied volatility, which is theoretically unlimited. If in a blind panic somebody is willing to pay $10,000 for an S&P put that's 200 points out of the money, then VIX could spike to a thousand or more. Supposedly this actually happened on the Singapore exchange, when somebody bought a Nikkei put for a price that would have required the Nikkei to go below zero for it to be profitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 almost to the "red line" (2nd graph) http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htm close enough for me given all the other evidence. Forget about intervention and the "da boyz" crap. In the current market conditions artificial pumps will vaporize sooner than they are instituted - market is not the same as it was during Oct 9 - Nov 29 runup. Its not on their side anymore, that crap only works when the market is already in a positive up phase. In a down phase pumps are as effective as shoveling sh#t against the tide. Stop looking in the rear view mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 Here comes gold, 325/oz a deer in its headlights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 There won't be a cyclical Bull again until the DOW is under 5000. At that point there are some bargains assuming we are approaching imminent armageddon. And I can tell you for sure that a cyclical Bullz Market will certainly not start from these levels. As for the NAz it's finished. Te next down leg will be "it" for the Naz. Bye Bye !!! So loooong !!! No more Naz !!! I guess I'll have to change my by-line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 6, 2002 Report Share Posted December 6, 2002 Greg, check out Arch on gold http://www.aegeancapital.com/freeservices/...rawford/pg1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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