Guest Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 The idea that the Fed is responsible for what has gone on in the market the last few days is just silly. True, the Fed was pumping maniacally in December but it has been aggessively draining funds from the system since January 2. This is about seasonal fund flows. See the Feed chart in tonights Anals, to be posted around 8 PM ET. What's the "Greenspan Put" that is frequently referenced? Is there a PPT or is all or this folklore. Can the gang of 22 act as a proxy for the FED? I'm being dead serious when I ask these questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 We might also just have seen the Top for my b day. Wouldn't that be great! :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 Anyone know of a site that studies market psychology as opposed to charts. I know some would consider the VIX and p/c ratio part of "psychology", but with so much hedging going on, I sometimes wonder. We may move lower Monday, but I think the odds would lie with the End's 950 and Buddah's 1521 at least. If the Doc is correct, and the feed is draining, What happens when the actual feeding starts? Higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 I don't understand why futures closing below cash is bullish; sounds like the wise guys rolling the dice in the back room of chapel. The fix is made before and after the bell anymore; the market couldn't trade 3 points either way for hours, and then 9 points after the close! This is why I'm going to fund a small futures account, not out of greed, but out of self-protection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 11, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 AssMaster: You are picking the wrong stocks. NCEN continues up on its parabola. I have some calls which have tripled in 3 days to hedge my small short on the stock. COF is next. After hours price shows a gap up over the 200-day line, then that crazy stock is off to one of its traditional moonshots like March of last year. CFC looks like its ready to push through $54. FRE is at the top of the channel line, it might just take off like a scalded dog. Homebuilders look ready to explode higher. Note that TOL is already gapping up AH to $22 to break out of that pennant. Some type of fix is in the mortgage and housing industry. Don't know exactly what, but the mortgage and subprimes are on fire!! The broad market and/or the techs might fall, but these stocks fought the December decline trend. Brian4: AH prices on a lot of stocks are heavily in the green. Futures close at 1:00pm on Fridays, so the discount to cash doesn't reflect the actual close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 LOU, I did not say it was always bullish. But, when yoe have a few days of it in a row, it seems that people don't believe the rally and therefore it continues. It works well in the opposite direction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 We might also just have seen the Top for my b day. Wouldn't that be great! :grin: Your boytday?? Hey End, HAPPY BIRTHDAY!! Now go to the CD rack, pull out the White Album . . . that's right Now go to Disc 2 and play track 1 for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 did it already Mousey. Tanks :grin: By the way what did you think about the thing? :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 bullish complaceny up against major resistance and indecision spells look out below. The only missing ingredient to finish this POS off is one more push up to throw everyone off: scare the bears, sucker more bull fools, and allow Maria to have her orgasm. Expect one more head-fake up then TOAST CITY. http://www.internetstockreport.com/close/a...1568251,00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 ASS someone in a link noted, MOST of the gain this week came Monday and very little happened thereafter. We are STILL shilly-shallying around. They clearly are stopping declines but they can't seem to muster enough OOOMPHHH!!! to drive it thru key overhead resistance and make it STICK, either. One neural network/ASStro fellow is predicting a HUGE up day mid week peaking around 1080 or so. Izzat when INTC reportz? That ASStro guy is looking FUR a sharp spike up, too. A regular and good TA fellow over on CB went short S&P at 927.50 w a tight stop. This is the trikky part as Natalie Merchant would say. They are going to do ANYTHING they can to have an UP January. Especially now that fund flows have reversed to the plus side. But HAYWIRE THEORY is still operative, still kicking in JUST as the market looks poised to ramp and ream the shorts in the process. Can u imagine where we'd be tonight if the employment nos were positive? HRFF is second guessing the agitprop puppeteers by thinking that there isn't QUITE enuff DUMB money to pop the top, and the smart money won't commit with The Street trying to whistle pASSt the economic graveyard as it did today, and with war clouds still dark and thunder rumbling on the horizon from them. Until BIG MONEY is comfortable on the long side, HAYWIRE THEORY probably will prevail. The Siren's song that worked in the pASSt so well to engineer jams is on a record that is now deeply scratched, and skipping. Hence little if any progress and it's stuck in one place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 The Gang of 22 is the Feed's proxy for sure. But they are not in business to lose money. They are in the business of distribution. Al has been pumping like crazy for two years and what has it bought him? Nothing. The bear market is a mirror image of the preceding bull market. If you don't believe it look at long term weekly or monthly charts. Rallies are vicious because of short covering, not because the Fed or the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund or Working Group on Financial Markets is buying stocks. Sure they manipulate here and there. The pre election rally was no accident. But what goes in must come out. If these guys weren't also selling at times, the Gang and the Gummit would own everything. They don't. And as near as I can tell, there are no common stocks on the Fed's balance sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 negative divergence city http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html This is not the only place where I see it, I'm pulling a Rayok and don't feel like typing. Once the cycles roll its so over its not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 Cycles Rule! In your Anals tonight. The market reminded us today once again that news is noise, and cycles rule. At Thursday's close the cycles pointed to a 1 day high on Friday at 11 AM, around 930 on the SPX. Then the surprise noise came that the labor market suffered a big job loss. The futures tanked and stocks gapped down. But it was too early in the cycles for the market to accept that and turn down for a sustained move. Doc covers that and the usual road kill rundown, including intraday, short term, and intermediate outlook,?as well as hot pictures of naked stock charts, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Stoolies, log in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 11, 2003 Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/...sell010903.html http://www.sovereignstrategist.com/updates/index.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 11, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2003 Noland's report is in. He says the fix is probably in for awhile, the credit markets are again sailing smoothly. Time to go long on some subprimes.... Ride 'em cowboy..... Looking at COF, PVN, maybe even ACF NCEN is too extended, waiting for a pullback. Remember, these subprimes can fight the broad market.... And by the way, I agree with BARE. Strong possiblity exists of a major blowoff top next week. I'll keep my cash for now, wait for the big spike before shorting the Supermodels. In the meantime, I'm going to go feel up some homebubblers and those Subprime Soap Actresses with the lowest self esteem..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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