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The "Good" Old Days - Part 1


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Oy and Wave-

 

You are referring to the phenomenon I noted that every bubble in the last century has launched a huge rally 36-39 months after the peak of the bubble. I've been watching this too. In this current winding down, there have already been a couple of huge rallies, so some of the pressure is off I think. I definitely wouldn't want to be short when the turn comes, but I like being a trend follower here, because of the potential for additional sharp losses, and I'd be willing to stay short until clear evidence the turn is in, even though I'd lose some of the gains.

Doc...absolutely...and I could not agree more....

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From Here on OYSTER goes on FULL ALERT for a tradeable low entering this phase......I have given only 2 tradeable lows since this bear begun......Europe is at the levels or near...Unfortunately US is very stubborn.....I am short Gold....on full alert on Euro and European Bonds....... XSPXX-XSXPX500XIndexXWeeklyX311.gif

hi oyster!

What do you think about DAX? I think it bottoms around current levels and i have the feeling that some biggies a ready to load up the ship IF we get belwo 2000. For example stocks like BASF, EON or even Bayer are defintiely not a sell anymore.

 

You also look out for a top in euro? A quick run to 1.12 still possible, but yes should correct soon. What is your level to short? Here, or wait a bit more?

 

TIA :)

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SG covers 50% of position last night...

 

From my thread this morning... just a heads up, a risk mgmt move, not a call on the markets.... still heading much further down

 

covered some of my position last night only because it had grown entirely too large over the past several months as a % of my overall portfolio. Im a risk manager at heart. I have a significant 6 figure plus position short using RYVNX still and have no plans to cover that until 22.5 or so as a trade.... its been held since Jan 23...

 

That said, any bounce that happens towards 24.10, I would re-short again. One of my next moves after this Turd ends, is to cover, and place some $$ into a Rydex fund that shorts the Govt Bond index (I think thats the bond index it shorts). I see a fairly good sized opportunity in that arena based on the wave patterns for a LONG TERM reversal of rates... mostly based on credit risk and a falling dollar... not on a growing economy. RYJUX is the symbol, will take advantage of rising 30 year T bond yields, which I expect as the credit bubble and deficit issues continue to unfold. It may be an alternative to a money market account, with of course more risk...

 

SG always posts his infrequent trades

 

SG posted his sell of KGC yesterday morning at 6.92 for all to see, I took a 35 cent loss... closed at 6.45 ish. SG has $5 target on the shares.

 

Good luck today, suspect 24.25 possible test on a retrace of 50% off the recent 24.60 ish high into yesterdays low.

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SG and Oyster pulling $$ off table

 

This does not mean a low has been hit, far from it. It does mean we are risk managers and successful traders do not get slaughtered being greedy.

 

SG still believes we need several 90% down days like yesterday before a real interim low is hit.

 

SG says May 10th or so is the likely bottom of this turd wave. 38 fibonacci months off the bull market high is why... nothing more or less than that....

 

Any interim lows will set up for yet another new bear market low into early May IMO.... any cash I have on sideline now will be re-positioned to short again... possibly as early as today.

 

Oyster is a smart trader.... we both see lows coming, but I dont see it being anywhere near the ultimate low

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Also from this mornings SG Waves thread

 

If I had to hazard a guess, 23.70 is a likely bottom this morning, with a bounce to $24.10 ish.... followed by a big 5 wave down to 22.50 ish... a bounce, and an ending 5th wave to 22.25 ish.

 

We hit 24.10 in pre market, but pre-market doesnt count... not enough sheeple to get a real wave count. Only intra-day do I use for valid counts and re-traces.

 

24.10 to 24.25 are the ranges where I will re-short

 

Still holding 22.25 as interim bottom target.... still holding 50% of my RYVNX position which is still in the low 6 figures...

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SG covers 50% of position last night...

 

From my thread this morning... just a heads up, a risk mgmt move, not a call on the markets.... still heading much further down

 

covered some of my position last night only because it had grown entirely too large over the past several months as a % of my overall portfolio. Im a risk manager at heart. I have a significant 6 figure plus position short using RYVNX still and have no plans to cover that until 22.5 or so as a trade.... its been held since Jan 23...

 

That said, any bounce that happens towards 24.10, I would re-short again. One of my next moves after this Turd ends, is to cover, and place some $$ into a Rydex fund that shorts the Govt Bond index (I think thats the bond index it shorts). I see a fairly good sized opportunity in that arena based on the wave patterns for a LONG TERM reversal of rates... mostly based on credit risk and a falling dollar... not on a growing economy. RYJUX is the symbol, will take advantage of rising 30 year T bond yields, which I expect as the credit bubble and deficit issues continue to unfold. It may be an alternative to a money market account, with of course more risk...

 

SG always posts his infrequent trades

 

SG posted his sell of KGC yesterday morning at 6.92 for all to see, I took a 35 cent loss... closed at 6.45 ish. SG has $5 target on the shares.

 

Good luck today, suspect 24.25 possible test on a retrace of 50% off the recent 24.60 ish high into yesterdays low.

:wink2: .....thx SG......

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