longOnUranus Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 Puts on C at mid-day, calls on XAU - got a good execution from a normally crappy, manipulating, high spread market maker. Just had to wait all day. Still mostly cash. Will hold through scam week or breakout/breakdown, whichever comes first. Gotta love CALVF! I have started several businesses in my lifetime, and I made a rule never to borrow to pay for operating expenses - just for equipement or things you could sell in a secondary market to buffer your losses. Good article our our liquidity miracle here: GM in deep trouble. At least GM has dodged this gas tax! Great weekend, everyone. Hug your kids while you still got 'em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 Stoolies, hope you all made some major coin this week. Held my index options purchased Monday till the close thurs and was able to get out flat, not what I had anticipated but better than losing coin! Market internals starting to break down in a big way, where have we seen this before? Wondering if any board members have read the book "America: What went wrong" Started this afternnon and cant put it down ..I can tell already, a must read for all stoolies, puts hypers thoughts into perspective. Bears time has arrived, when the trap door opens all hell gonna break loose, taking this next week off for some family time...may need to head back to the Great Bear Lodge...worked in Jan, better yet, should head to Canada to buy some property! B4 any ideas... Bears enjoy: http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/putcall.htm http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htm http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm http://www.decisionpoint.com/affiliate/NHNL.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 Tig, from your post yesterday on M2M: [bB, While I agree with you on T/A, there are no givens. In other words, we break 980 SPX, we automatically go to 1020. I have T/A guys manage my money and they've lost, every time. They seem to miss the big moves consistently. If we bounce off of resistance levels, then what? If we break thru, will we continue? Everyone expects that because we went thru 980, that we we go to 1020. What does that say today?] Any breakout/breakdown has to be confirmed by other indicators. That also goes for any formation/pattern IMO. The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line. What have they got to lose? The incentive for individual traders whose incomes rely solely on their T/A & trading skills is much higher.... If you don't get it right more often than wrong then you don't eat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2003 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line. What have they got to lose? Not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 Tilt this chart about 15 degrees to the right and see inverse head and shoulders. Actually looks like an inverted three peaks and a domed house formation. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the next leg up on the gold train is about to leave the station. A possible scenario? A = 235 (Sept 2003) a = 115-180 b = 180-160 c = 160- 235 B = 235-175 (Dec 2003) C = 175-350 (Dec 2004) But I am an idiot. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line. What have they got to lose? Not true. What Doc said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 Ass, like the new avatar. Very plausible scenario for HUI. I'm in BGEIX. Not letting go. HUI appears to still be in the early stages of the steady unrelenting rise phase (leg) similar to the 1995 rise in stock market. Hey, what else comes after a long 9 month volatile consolidation phase!? Nice wall of worry to climb...still lots of skepticism. Will be brutal for those who don't believe and are short PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 Aussie: typical hedge fund manager gets 1% management fee and 20% of the profits. So, the manager gets paid a bit no matter what, but that 20% is the bump they hate to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 Thanks B4, You and End seem to agree about Gold going higher. That is good enough for me, for now at least anyway. Thanks. Aussie, I believe you are actually referring to my post. The guys who have managed my money are T/A and sentiment. Unfortunately, with their methods, they were usually stopped out just before a big move in the direction they were seeking. In volatile markets, their methods simply do not work. Now with moves like we've just experienced over the past 3 months, their stops would not likely have been hit, HOWEVER, with the VIX where it is and the P/C ratio where it is, they would not likely have been in on the long side, and may have been short, only to be stopped out yet again. DOES ANY OF THAT MAKE SENSE???????? Perhaps the best way to play it is to do as Piles does, BUT, maybe only try to play at the mid-point of the down move. !!??? Yikes too much thinking going on here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line. ?What have they got to lose? ? Not true. What Doc said. ok might have been a misunderstanding there but in his original post Tig said he had a roomful of T/A guys working for him and he edited the post to the above. It sounded to me like these guys still got paid regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 OH, exactly...my philosophy is if the next trend is going to last months then what is the rush in front-running it now before it actually happens. I'd much rather catch the second train out of the station than get run over by the first one. And I'll respond now to all those that will respond saying "there won't be another train." Jesse Livermore always played it this way. Odds always favor a second chance especially after a rally this strong the dip buyers will still be eager to buy this PIG all the way down the slope of hope. Expect at least one sharp brief rally on the way down, if not many given the tons of mindless hopers around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 The T/A guys who manage Other Peoples' Money still get their monthly paycheck regardless of the outcome of their recommendations plus it is the OPM on the line. What have they got to lose? Not true. One guy worked for straight 15% of profits, of course if you lose a half a mil like he did you make 0.0000. The other guy just traded funds for 1.5%, whether he made or lost $$$. He only lost 150K. Very ouch baby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 I decided to not post a big one on M2M... New Ravings... You will most likely forget this within 24 or so hours. I first knew about the mechanics of Fractional reserve banking in 1993... It wasn't until 2001 that I actually comprehended it... Capitalstool was the last piece of the puzzle... Old raving refresher... You have most likely forgotten this... In the end everything except Fractional reserve banking will get the blame... Fractional reserve Banking = the cause. When you open your eyes in the morning = the effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 Aussie: typical hedge fund manager gets 1% management fee and 20% of the profits. So, the manager gets paid a bit no matter what, but that 20% is the bump they hate to miss. Sorry, yes, badly worded and I didn't mean the Manager but rather the employees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coboy Posted June 21, 2003 Report Share Posted June 21, 2003 From "Option Ayatollah" Larry McMillan : The equity-only put-call ratios have fallen to new lows this week , despite the slight setback in prices. New lows in these ratios are bullish, for as long as they continue to trend downward, they remain on buy signals. These equity-only put-call ratios will remain in a bullish state until they bottom out and begin to rise. Only then would they become bearish. While there could be some reasonable debate as to whether such action is bullish or not, we certainly feel that it is not bearish. Therefore, we rate this indicator positive as best or neutral, at worst. Only if $OEX prices fell below support and $VIX broke upward out of its range say, broke above 25 -- would $VIX be in a bearish mode. Again, not something that we foresee in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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