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Mark To Market -- Thanksgiving Vacation


torah man

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Lately I have been looking for stocks that have increased

400% over 5 years and have yet to lose 50% from their high.

 

Yet I am always mindful of what I call the modern day "robber baron" factor.

 

Anyway I was thinking about Bernie Schaffer's recent article and thinking of IBM? Wondering if it had risen 400%.

 

And so I did a long term chart comparison of IBM, C

and Nasduck

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=c&k=c1&t=...on&z=m&q=l&y=on

 

If you thought the Nasdaq was a bubble

then look at what Citigroup has done over the last 10 years!!

 

Then again maybe banks are the modern day robber barons.

 

Hell - everytime I look at my BAC account, it's just one fee after another, no interest and then on the flip side

I have their brokers on proctovision speaking complete BS.

 

I have got to close that account! I only have myself to blame - apathy.

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If you are a simple investor/trader who wants to make a sizeable return with perhaps only one trade all year long then THE one to make RIGHT NOW is

 

Prudent Bear fund

 

Yes, it is that simple.

 

Why? Its still up 50% in one year despite the "idiot's rally" and we are now at the same juncture as we were a year ago. Very low risk zone for entering into one of these type funds.

 

Rydex Arktos is only up a stinky 20%. Much slippage and a tough one to "buy-and-hold", unless you are "Simple Guy" and know how to trade it to death :lol:

 

If you enter Prudent Bear now you could probably ride out any rallies in 2003 w/o much fuss.

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Slinger, those ewave counts are interesting. I disregard the more bullish ones b/c investor sentiment does not support them now.

 

Most people don't know how to use/trade on ewaves. There is a subtle way on how to. Many make the mistake of trading before the so called reversal ocurrs - you'll more than likely get killed doing so. Just don't trade in advance, wait until basic technicals confirm the count (suspicions) that the turn that is about to happen indeed HAS happened.

 

Once a top/bottom and new trend has been confirmed per basic indicators like Aroon, DMI/ADX, MAs, Bullish Pct, McClellan Summation, etc., depending on your trading timeframe, you can trade in direction of "new" trend with more confidence since ewaves give you a "road map".

 

I never make a trade counter to the CONFIRMED current trend no matter how encouraging the wave count looks that a trend reversal is imminent.

 

Right now the last significant confirmed turning point was Oct 9 so you still have to give the benefit of doubt to the bulls, but all reversal indicators say a turn is imminent. Once price action confirms this turn its time to go bear again.

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MH - I couldn't read the attached article as I am not a subscriber - I assume given your bullish stance that it

had some worthy arguments.

 

For me there is one argument - EXCESS GLOBAL CAPACITY. The world currently has an unprecedented level of excess capacity. Yet huge investments are being made into China - this will only further expand

global capacity.

 

Excess capacity means no pricing power. No pricing power means weak corporate profits. And that then creates the vicious circle of cost cutting.

 

I am not an economist, but I know this doesn't bode well

for our banking system. If our banking system gets into trouble as has been the case in Japan and Germany then

you won't want to be DONG.

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Leuthold....Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucker!

 

New Bull markets and bottoms, the great bear market of 2000-20?? will out live them all!!!

 

All we're doing right now is the last waltz underneath the behemoth 5 year H&S neckline before the great fade away into oblivion gets underway. Not a question of if, just a matter of when and from which level it begins.

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If this is the start of a new bull market then it will be the VERY first time ever in history that it began:

 

1) with garbage leading the way up - a speculative orgy beginning.

2) off a v-bottom with no base building whatsoever.

3) with no fear or disgust at "the final low".

4) with real price/earnings still in the stratosphere

5) with the majority of people still holding and hoping

6) with 51% bulls and only 23% bears

7) with strategists allocated 70-80% in equities

8) with mutual funds holding a paltry 4% cash.

 

I guess he's right, everyone who lost in the crash are now going to be made whole again, everyone is going to be rich, and we are all going to live happily ever after in this great land called the "Wizard of Al".

 

I think I'm going to hurl.

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Leuthold's views really come down to an erroneous assumption regarding inflation. The attached - details the relationship between capacity utilization and inflation.

 

http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/pdf...df/4q94garn.pdf

 

With capacity utlization about to get even worse - deflation is a real threat - and that is what the Fed can see under the surface - which Leuthold clearly can't!

 

The November 15 capacity utilization fell to "75.2 percent, a level 6.7 percentage points below its 1967-2001 average".

The December 17 figure is CRITICAL

 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/G17/default.htm

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Thanks Piledriver for your explanation of how to use Ewaves. I've always had a hard time following Ewaves and have never had any luck with them, since it is hard for me to ever find more than one Ewaver that is in agreement. So, I never know which wave we are on. I will stick to my trusty stochastic oscillator, moving averages, and trendline trading method, it has worked good enough for me.

 

I currently am using a stochastic oscillator setting of 28,28 on a 10 minute chart and stochastic oscillator setting of 5,5 on a 60 minute chart. I enter calls when both charts show an Dover Sole oscillator or puts when both charts show an overbought oscillator. Also, I use a DMA setting of 9,-4 on the 60 minute chart to keep me on the right side of the trade. If the DMA is heading up sharply when I'm supposed to buy puts based on the oscillator, I hold off until the DMA turns. Vice versa for the calls. I sell using the 3 min chart with stochastic oscillator setting at 28,28 or sooner if I am happy with my profits. Currently I am only trading options on the QQQ's since they are cheap, liquid, and volatile. Does anyone know of any other options that are comparable to the QQQ's? An example of my 60 minute chart settings is here. I use the $NDX chart since it is real-time at prophet.net, and I like that site since it has real-time charts of more than one day's worth of data.

 

I am interested in learning about cmaps that everyone here talks about. Does anyone know where I could get a crash course on them without having to read a thick book? Thanks.

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