Metamucil Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 The remaining upside hardly seems worth any more fun and games with hedging. One major assumption is that the 13 weekers will not get far, given the current ozzie configuration in tonight's anals. 'scuse the bollingers....... :grin: SPY daily clear top formation in completion. g'night soon daq daily A joke.... daily Bioturds cruising for a nervous breakdown? daily Oh, horror! daily semi-screamerholder 'Aways sleep well chart' monthly BKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 I'm just following the waves: Using FTSE-100 as a leading indicator to our market - looking for target E Wave e's within long contracting triangle patterns are very erratic, typically falling short of the triangle trendline (the overhead line connecting the larger degree wave a and c highs recorded 22 August and 2 December), or accomplishing a false breakout through the line before reversing sharply. And, the completion of this rally should kickoff a monster wave to the downside whose full extent cannot be predicted with any degree of certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Thanks Charmin. I follow that site also. He has been right on for a long while now. Here's the link. They have a free 3 month subscription. Well worth it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Stoolies we are now heading into Options Racketeering Week for all practical purposes and we are around 50 points higher in the Comp than last Expiration. The Committment of Traders is Short bias, the Ted Mack p/c is long bias. This tells me we are due some down spikes starting by Monday. This is my oversimplified forensic analysis. They always reverse the momentum of the previous week into OE. We have had an up week, the bull is out and about, therefore the con is in and the reversal should be coming soon. There are time clusters as well on Jan 15. If we do run up as late as that then I would expect a significant reversal next Wednesday but I think it comes sooner. Who can say? With so much confusion is perhaps best to stand aside, no crime in that. One thing is for sure, idiots who are still trying to play gaps have been wasted by this Market. I have seen more gap and runs over last year than fake tits in Beverly Hills. What a joke. If it gaps up tommorrow, that one will be the exhaustion and should be shortable intramorning since 2 in a row is a bit much in my opinion. Its true, the wild card next week is the earnings reporting and none of it is above board. Thats the ultimate irony. Everybody knows these creatures are lying and do nothing but lie and fawn and posture. Nonetheless, you have to trade what they signal or lose. Probably best just to stand aside and watch, then play the intraday nonsense if you must. Once earnings crapping is finally in the bowl then we head into a guaranteed down phase which is Warnings or Iceberg Season. Maybe its just best to draw on bead on that and forget the rest. The trend is forever for beat-by-a-penny-stuck-in-your-anus Rallies which turn into selloffs in the following Warnings season immediately afterwards. I wonder if that has anything to do with these criminals cashing in their options on the runups into what they know will be bogus earnings reports and then waiting for the drop afterwords. Bunch of sickening,lowlife,scumsucking amphibians who should walk the plank in Manhattan Harbor and get keyholed off the rusted hulls of old oil tankers. best, buddha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 THE STRANGE DESIRE FOR A QUICK BLOWOUT TOP Whats this - a 1000 point UP move in the DOW???? We all want this bull move to end. It will end but it will end like all the bear market rallies - Not with a bang but a slow sideways wimper. Watch the VIX - it is the light guiding the way. We have to go up so the VIX can go down to the low 20's so we can really go down. Predicting low probability events is a mugs game. Though it appears to be an irresistable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 rog, I did a Google search today on "stock bond correlation." It turned up some interesting papers. The positive correlation between stock and bond prices which many of us thought was permanent existed from 1967 to 1998 ... the inflationary years.... You are a wonder. Thanks I've been pondering that relationship for months. Any comments on the change seeming to begin with the '98 crash. Uncle Al? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 you are right JIMBO but not just the VIX every time the QQV has hit 30-32 the market has walked off a cliff. Speaking of which the futures are well below fair value-unless their is a mid nite jam she is a down OPEN. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Hadjin: It seems there are many of us who have parked cash into BEARX. There was some discussion a few days ago about its (BEARXs) chart and its technical behavior of forming a right shoulder. I am not very savy about TA and wonder if others could offer their opinions on it. The discussion you're referring to, I think, was that the Prudent Bear (BEARX) chart appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. Now, the final shoulder, the right shoulder, is under construction. The Head and Shoulder pattern is a very bearish pattern where once completed, the chart should go on to dive from the support line of the shoulders to a depth proportional to the height of the head peak. Problem is, a head and should (H&S) pattern should be validated by volume patterns as the formation is painted on the chart. If the correct volume pattern isn't there along with the H&S print, the H&S may not come into play at all. Without volume confirmation the H&S print on the chart isn't all that useful. I don't think volume informaition is available for the BEARX fund, so who knows if the H&S means anything. Hadjin: It also seems that they hold so much cash and Treasuries, I just hopt they commit those funds to more active short and gold positions when the timing is nigh. In this market, cash is a position. So far BEARX has held onto their gains during this rally in a very respectable way. If you chart the fund against the S&P, you'll see that they've done very well during declines. Seems like their active management results a good mix of gains and protection of capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Stoolmembers, after looking at charts I think we head for a blowoff top and a retest of Dec highs up to 1521 by next Wednesday. Sorry. Once we break above the 200 day idiot Pavlovian Line, every crazed equity addict in the Universe will be climbing in and the pop should be quick and straight up the flag pole. No hesitation, no flirtation. In this Market its 'wham,bam, thank you Maam'. But by mid next week it should exhaust into overbought like old,caked fece packed up the rear spout of a 98 year old cattle rancher. The last part of the pole up is always most frantic, this is what I would look for now, I just don't think the 200 holds and since every mechanical idiot from lhere to Greenland is reading the same chart, all shorts will cover there and all panic buyers will double up like its the Oklahoma Land Rush. Kudlow will probably lub up on screen and try for the first time in years to summon a woodie. Creamer will be filming it on his hands and knees, frothing at the mouth, one paw down his pants. FartaRoma will pull out the purple vibrator in communal celebration and La Rouche will start beating on Bob'mr clean'Froelich with a corked police stick. oh the horror.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShamPoo Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Buddha, say what you like about W or Newt but lighten up on the amphibians. Dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 the book will be used, as they have over the last three years, to hide the truth. ?ed and it will not work; .......................................................................................... one reason the public is able to consciously entertain the parade of establishment stupidities like 'a new bull market' is because large events develop over timeframes that exceed most people's attention spans by several orders of magnitude. the other is that conscious awareness of an uncomfortable situation often is avoided as long as possible. phat so true is what you said that leaving the market aside for a moment, the people dont even pay attention to their own biographies--thats why you get those expressions like:"my god where did all the time go?";"Wow,it seems like only yesterday...." The reason being is that all the intervening period between ,say, youth and old age passed by without the referred to herd of amnesiacs ever registering more than the minutest portion of passing time so that when they do look back its as if they went from a to j to z ina single bound;like magic-so swiftly did the their lives come and go--that they feel as if their hair turned grey overnight-- this and the instinct towards denial combine to make an invincible union of ignorance ,solidly impenetrable to the persuasive force of reason-- and television has had no little effect in augmenting this propensity for collective idiocy beardrech ---as a sophisticated infant whispered into his mothers ear:thanks for the mammories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maximummark Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Looking more like Saddumb & sons will abdicate for asylum...Skolnick had it first, Safire covered it today, and O'Reilly was on it tonight...Arafat s probably next...Syrian incursion into Israel complicates things, as does renewed bellicosity from India and Pakistan over their Kashmir disagreement...North Korea would then be front and center, and as a Chinese proxy, little more than a bargaining chip to secure Taiwan...China can only survive as a low cost exporter, and they need us worse than we need them...all in all, a potential for an unsustainable super rally that would be orgasmic for day traders...I expected war by mid-October, but absent that knee-jerk invasion, Bush's cabal of "chicken-hawks" may have peaked...Gold still looks good, though, as part of a "commodity basket" standard for a currency reorganization as the dollar weakens...All in all, a good deal fror control, which can solidify its "Patriot Act" and "Homeland Security" gains in an atmosphere of gratitude and goodwill similar to the fall of "The Wall"...A great nation cannot afford to base its foreign policy on the insane acts of a few zealous retards and rogue agents from intelligence agencies known and unknown...The problem is really much bigger than that, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmo Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Hadjin and Double flush..... About Bearx...... Most charts that come up dont show that they just had a dividend pay out of about .45 that was subtracted from the Nav. This makes the chart of Bearx look worse than it should suggesting the head and shoulders pattern.If not for the dividened payout NAV would be around 7.60. The chart I get at decisionpoint.com factors out the dividened and shows it not haveing broken its up trened line from Dec 2. Managers at this fund seem to know what they are doing and I doubt they will miss the next down turn when it comes. They are mostly short the financials now and not so much tech as they see it and I think rightly so as the next place where the bubble needs be popped a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 China can only survive as a low cost exporter, and they need us worse than we need them... Disagree. China's much-misunderstood strategy of "exporting deflation" is actually designed to subsidize long-term domestic capacity utilization growth at the expense of short-term lower profits. People forget that unlike Japan, China's domestic market is potentially unlimited, and in the long-run, it will NOT be dependent on a "low-cost export strategy" like Japan or Korea, but instead, will become increasingly reliant on growth fueled by domestic consumption. Why do you think US companies are heading in droves to China today? (see today's WSJ coverage). Export manufacturing is only a temporary means of ramping up production capacity, in anticipation of meeting local consumption demand. And don't forget that PRC is the second largest purchaser of US debt (= creditor). My biggest worry is that, in the end, China will need [uS] much less than we need them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Double Flush and Chaso.. Thanks for the input. Their performance the past year + speaks for themselves. I can't imagine what they will return if they see their triggers for them to put that cash/treasuries to work in dynamic positions. As to the H & S shoulder, I was just wondering about its chart pattern and if there was anything that might be gleemed from it. Thank you both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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