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Gap up or down tomorrow?


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21.61..................

I post this in the hope that someone will remind me of this the next time there is a "big" earnings number near OpEx.

 

A relatively safe strategy to play this would have been similar to my straddle idea, posted earlier today.

 

If the stock usually "beats" and gooses the market, buy some cheap (because it's close to OpEx) out of the money front month puts, as a safety. Then, go long the stock. If the stock zooms up after hours, sell it (hopefully for more than the cost of the puts, and with a nice profit.) However, if the stock seems to be like BIDU, up enormously, just hang on to the stock if it doesn't weaken. If it tanks big and it doesn't reverse upward fairly quickly, dump it and use the puts the next day to get whole. (The rationale for actually buying the stock instead of calls is that you can't trade options after hours.)

 

This would have worked really well today with INTC.

 

Has anybody done stuff like this? Am I missing something in the strategy?

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YOY sales were up 28% to $10.6b, and EPS jumped from $.04 to $.40. Those sure appear to be great numbers.

 

Here's an interesting slant (which doesn't mean diddly to the after-hours party). If you go back to Q4 of 2007, they earned $10.7b and had EPS of $.41. Check those numbers - 2 years later and nothing has changed. I guess that's good considering we're in a recession.

 

Back in Jan of '07 when they reported, the stock price was in the $20-22 range (exactly where we are today). 2 years, a financial crisis, a recession, and everything is back to normal. I guess the party is back on. <_<

 

Intel had operating earnings of 55 cents per share. They took a charge to settle a lawsuit with AMD which is where you get the 40 cents per share earnings.

 

> Gross margin @ 64.7, v 53.1 a year ago & 61(+/- 3) forward spin. Continued to suck

> blood from employee & supplier turnips. More great corporate citizenship.

 

I've written extensively on this in the past. Every two years, Intel does a process shrink. When they do this, their variable costs are cut in half. At 90 nanometers, they can fit so many chips on a wafer. At 65 nanometers, they can fit twice as many chips on a wafer and they will increase their yields as bad spots on wafers affect fewer chips because the chips are smaller. Their gross margins are going up for technological reasons. They announced last week that they are producing at 32 nm. Last year, they were mostly selling chips made at the 45 nm node so their costs will go down sharply again in 2010. The other big area is in Atom sales. These are low-powered chips for netbooks. The chips themselves are much smaller than their regular chips. They can fit thousands of them on a wafer and the margins are in the range of their high-end chips. They've made computing available to far more people by opening the market to those that can't pay as much for computers.

 

Intel is the world's leader in semiconductor process research and engineering. It is a crown jewel company of the United States. It employs tens of thousands of employees in the United States, most on the West Coast. I don't see the reason for the animus.

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Intel had operating earnings of 55 cents per share. They took a charge to settle a lawsuit with AMD which is where you get the 40 cents per share earnings.

 

> Gross margin @ 64.7, v 53.1 a year ago & 61(+/- 3) forward spin. Continued to suck

> blood from employee & supplier turnips. More great corporate citizenship.

 

I've written extensively on this in the past. Every two years, Intel does a process shrink. When they do this, their variable costs are cut in half. At 90 nanometers, they can fit so many chips on a wafer. At 65 nanometers, they can fit twice as many chips on a wafer and they will increase their yields as bad spots on wafers affect fewer chips because the chips are smaller. Their gross margins are going up for technological reasons. They announced last week that they are producing at 32 nm. Last year, they were mostly selling chips made at the 45 nm node so their costs will go down sharply again in 2010. The other big area is in Atom sales. These are low-powered chips for netbooks. The chips themselves are much smaller than their regular chips. They can fit thousands of them on a wafer and the margins are in the range of their high-end chips. They've made computing available to far more people by opening the market to those that can't pay as much for computers.

 

Intel is the world's leader in semiconductor process research and engineering. It is a crown jewel company of the United States. It employs tens of thousands of employees in the United States, most on the West Coast. I don't see the reason for the animus.

 

We have nothing against the company or the employess: It's just the stock itself that we hate.

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