mdporter Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 "We are facing a potential black hole for all financial markets,'' said Neil MacKinnon, chief economist at London-based hedge fund ECU Group, which manages $2 billion in assets. "This is being labeled as perhaps the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression. While that sounds fairly apocalyptic, I think it is a realistic assessment of what is happening at the moment.'' The so- called TED spread increased to 1.58 percentage points today from 0.78 percentage point on Feb. 14. The two-year note's yield fell 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 1.48 percent. Demand for the shortest-term government debt pushed the rate on three-month bills down to 1.17 percent, the lowest since June 2004. 651588[/snapback] The question is... how many investment banks can the Fed try to save? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Hanky, Congrats on your purchase! Hope everything works out for you. $89 a square foot is a dream price out here in CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and Dear Mr. Hanky, your jickiss says Bravo! to you for securing a large home in a very good area out West. FWIW, your jickiss suggests making sure that you have the very best Security Alarms and Devices installed, merely to feel safe. The feeling of being safe is worth its own weight in gold. second, Become politically active, and become known to all of the Local pols. Also, try to get to know all of your neighbours. somehow, your jickiss is certain that in so doing you will enhance your own sense of well-being. maybe you will run for office someday. what the US needs is for real people to dig in and Do Something! Set out to become the Local that others turn to.....it will pay in the long run. The view presented is superb! Think how many morons are trapped in NYC million doolar walk ups where the only view is the other wall of a near-by building. your jickiss thinks that you win on that Ratio Trade hands down! all the best to you, indeed! jickiss!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Hanky, Congrats on your purchase! Hope everything works out for you. $89 a square foot is a dream price out here in CA. 651594[/snapback] What he said. Congrats to you and enjoy it and Vegas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plop_plop Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 About a week ago, someone asked about the Vancouver Real Estate market historically. Here is a great compilation of quotes from the early and late 1980s, with comments added as to when the real price would once again reach the bubble heights. Here is the link. A flash from the past : 1. "Price stability, rather than decline, would be expected for most of the housing stock . . . since underlying home ownership demand remains strong due to continued high immigration." (Frank Clayton, January 18th 1981 in the Sun. link The market crashed by about 50% over the following year. ) 2. Renaud said he thinks that the trend to prices for houses has been broken by a temporary lull and that by [next year] or so prices will be equal to or greater than peak prices. (Claude Renaud, VP of Mortgage Insurance Canada on April 14, 1982. link The market took 26 quarters (over 6 years) to regain its peak in real terms.) 3. "To those who are waiting for Vancouver house prices to collapse, I can only advise them not to hold their breath . . . Unless there is a major recession or significant depopulation, house prices are unlikely to drop significantly." (Jerry Jackman, VP Royal Lepage, November 18, 1988 in the Vancouver Sun. link In 1989, prices started to drop - with an eventual 30% or so drop. Real prices did not attain these heights again for 58 quarters, or around 15 years.) 4. "We are definitely in a transition market in areas such as the West Side, Vancouver East, and Burnaby . . . it is too early to tell if the market will stall." (Jerry Jackman, April 20th 1989 in the Province. link Prices did not recover in real terms until 15 years later.) 5. "It is unlikely that prices will decline significantly." (JJ again, July 18th 1989 in the Sun. link) 6. "The whole world wants Vancouver because everybody is moving here now and everything points up, up, up." (Realtor David Goodman, December, 1989 in the Sun. link The market did not reach these heights again for 15 years.) 7. " . . .no one is panicking over the west side housing market and he insists that it has simply 'normalized'." (Jerry Jackman, January 27th 1990 quoted in the Sun. link West-side prices fell by 40% in the next 2 years.) 8. "I can't see prices reversing themselves there [in the west side] because it is still a very desirable place to live." (Same as above.) 9. "The market is entering a more 'normal' phase." (REBGV president Brian Calder, Feb 2, 1990 in the Sun. link If normal means that it takes 15 years to recover, then 'normal' it was.) 10. "A BC Central Credit Union newsletter released Tuesday said BC's housing market is currently experiencing a contractionary phase but the worst of that phase should be over by late summer or early fall." (BC Credit Union economist Richard Allen quoted in the Sun, July 5th 1995. link The decline in the late 90s was slow, but it took 28 quarters to bottom out and 33 quarters to recover to the previous peak. Some 'phase', eh?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Hanky- You have always shown yourself to have great investment instincts so I think you'll be ok, but I suspect that the market will drop to the level of your purchase price at some point. So, Mazel Tov! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 the house looks huge. how do yo know those 130,000 new jobs Las Vegas in the next 2 years will pan out? Since I got to this board I do not believe in any prediction/study/research done by anybody - nobody knows anything, it seems like they write what they want. 651582[/snapback] These are all projects that have already broken ground (except 1)and most are past halfway finished.They will have to be staffed and will create some kind of a floor here in the market.City center alone will create about 12000 to 15000 jobs alone. I believe after all these projects are finished in the next 2-3 years it may create a little bounce that will hold till they realize they built too many casinos(2012 or so)....40,000 new rooms in the next 2-3 years. I was just at the title company dropping off the deposit check....She said they are the busiest they have been in 6 years,most are forclosures and bank owned sales....she also told me more than half are cash buyers..Will it last ?...who knows. It seems a little crazy things can turn on the dime here,but I was outbid by 20 to 30 people on some properties .I got lucky on this one and got my offer in the day it went for sale and convinced the bank to take it off the market and accept my offer.(it wasn't easy). I would wait in any other market until you get at least the price drops your seeing in vegas...or close. Anyway,thanks for everyone's input....still nervous as hell buying in this market....but at least I'm paying cash! These are some of the major projests in the works....Too many to list. Palazzo, 3,025 rooms; cost $1.8 billion, now open. Encore at Wynn Las Vegas, 2,045 rooms: cost $1.7 billion. CityCenter, 7,700 rooms: cost $7 billion. Echelon Place, 3,300 rooms; cost $4 billion Aliante Station, A smaller project by local casino operator "Station Casinos." Cosmopolitan, 3,000 rooms; cost $2 billion Fontainebleau, 4,000 rooms; cost $1.5 billion Project X on the site of the former Westward Ho (next to CircusCircus), cost $1.8 billion Las Ramblas, 1,225 rooms; cost $3. billion. The Plaza.....4000 rooms?....$5-6 billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Our "friends" on the other side of the pond are just lapping this story up. I wonder how images like this resonate in Beijing and Riyadh? I mean how stupid do you have to be to keep lending billions to a country that allows this to happen to its citizens seven months before a national election? By this summer, it should painfully obvious that foreign creditors are going to be on the top of nearly every politician's hit list. And why not? These are the folks who provided the wherewithal to keep Wall Street's rip-off artists in business long after they would otherwise have imploded. How much longer before the mandarins in Asia and the oily ones in the GCC decide to cut their losses? 651592[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 So then. We're below 100 yen to the enfeebled green$pan. Where's this broadly-expected intervention from the BoJ, hmmm??? Weren't we supposed to have seen intervention at 102? Like once before? http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1P1-24443544.html Traders get the weekend to ponder the apparent absence of the BoJ's this week. I think the BoJ is going to be late to the dollar rally party, bwtfdik. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 These are some of the major projests in the works....Too many to list. Palazzo, 3,025 rooms; cost $1.8 billion, now open. Encore at Wynn Las Vegas, 2,045 rooms: cost $1.7 billion. CityCenter, 7,700 rooms: cost $7 billion. Echelon Place, 3,300 rooms; cost $4 billion Aliante Station, A smaller project by local casino operator "Station Casinos." Cosmopolitan, 3,000 rooms; cost $2 billion Fontainebleau, 4,000 rooms; cost $1.5 billion Project X on the site of the former Westward Ho (next to CircusCircus), cost $1.8 billion Las Ramblas, 1,225 rooms; cost $3. billion. The Plaza.....4000 rooms?....$5-6 billion 651599[/snapback] That's not good. I'd be nervous too. But you can probably flip it for a little profit, given the conditions you've described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 So then. We're below 100 yen to the enfeebled green$pan. Where's this broadly-expected intervention from the BoJ, hmmm??? Weren't we supposed to have seen intervention at 102? Like once before? http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1P1-24443544.html Traders get the weekend to ponder the apparent absence of the BoJ's this week. I think the BoJ is going to be late to the dollar rally party, bwtfdik. 651601[/snapback] yes, it seems so. Even when it first did fall below 100 it didnt really feel and look like intervention, although it did go above 101 on that day. Interventions in the past looked different: They simply did ran it up 100 pips in a minute, let it fall down 20 pips, then 100 pips up again, then suckem in by letting it fall 50 or so, then the final EVERY short killing power jam. That is how interventions by the BoJ looked like in the past. This hasnt happen yet. Japanese fiscal year ends march30. Repatriation. Maybe in April we get a new ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and did anything happen today? no. Bear in trouble, well, who is not. Bears will be in more trouble if there is a Foreign CB US Fed Stick Save on Monday or Tuesday. There really are only two days left for aciton to be taken, versus a weight of selling that will see the Curse of William O'Neil come back to bite on the posteriors of the Wise Guys who have worshipped at that altar of mo-mo Big Time since the later 1980s. The mo-mo generation loves to sell First, for they love to burn all they touch. Live to prosecute, die by prosecution. Live to press on, die by pressure. Their really are no buyers left, short of a Stick Save that must be globally supported by them that can provide plenty of liquidity. Doc must of needs be Perfectly Correct for if real Liquidity is missing, this present landscape is the reflection. your jickiss still views Higher Long Term Interest Rates as the element that will Define End Game. It is as clear as the Desert Sky at twilight that Higher Long Term Interest Rates are still quite a distance ahead. da Boyz are not above Bailing out themselves, and todays tape looked like a directed effort to supply "No Bids!" If the very earth could be moved with a long enough lever, so too do da Boyz believe that they can turn the tide if they can secure enough free money. Saturday will be the Ides of March, and the week ahead should be a week to remember for years. Bet a lot of Golf Games will be shakey this weakend. Buddha.......will something Finally Happen? Next Week, mayhaps? your jickiss still thinks the outcome will be aStick Save, mainly for the reason that no real Fear exists yet. Small minds seek relief from smaller annoyances, and the have trained themselves to think that the system is Fail Safe. Managed Expectations are still central to the puppet masters.....Even if the Paper Moon is on Fire, it can still be wafted higher. But only one more time. jickiss!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 <object width="450" height="370"><param name="movie" value="http://www.liveleak.com/e/dfc_1205463739"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.liveleak.com/e/dfc_1205463739" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="450" height="370"></embed></object> 651600[/snapback] this looks a bit like made up. European arrogance. Pointing the finger on the americans. The BBC should go to Liverpool and show how it looks like there and shut the wingohockingmoyamensing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and how about a Head and Shoulders Top (mal formed Right Shoulder) and A-B-C correction?? and NOW a Cup and handle nearing completion.... wow jickiss!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Another pretty good day. The Fed did something. What exactly isn't clear but Bear kept it's doors open to people wanting their money so it was good. It's always good when they do something. 'They aren't going to let the financial system collapse because it would be too terrible' I heard on PBS News Hour tonight. Faith is a powerful thing. Failure is not an option. God or the gods won't let America fail. It's impossible. Impossible to conceive at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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