WillytheBooh Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Another mans wave perspective...... http://crucialforum.virtual-business.com/s...n_down=0&page=0 A summary of the waves.. Bottom line is that we are only in sub wave 1 of wave 3 on the NASDAQ and that ended Thursday afternoon. A total of 22 days down (fib +1) and we should expect a retrace of 5 - 8 trading days which then give a fib time retracement of .23%-.32%. Note that 5-8 days brings us into the February 21 +/- 2 dau turn window. the equivalent price action for this move would be .38-.50 fib which is 1340 and 1370 approximatley.... coincidently 1309 would be the .23 fib retracement in price pretty damn close to today's 1310 print high.. This realtionship has some classic Ellito elegance as wave 1 and wave subwave i of 3 are almsot equal at 21 and 22 days respectively.... wave 2 lasted 8 trading days... another fib number.... so 5-8 days in this rally with another 60 points to the upside is possible... May you be blessed (cursed) to live in intereswting times... WilytheBooh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h2orush Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Mark, I like to see you talking about potentially going long. The "Entrenched Bear" attitude is very dangerous in my opinion, just the same as an "Entrenched Bull". I was pissed at myself last Nov when I was blown out of my shorts in the thrust through "the Line" at comp 1425, but in retrospect was more bummed that my bearish slant at the time had limited my ability to participate on the long side of an epic move off the lows. I like this site for its insightful and funny commentary, but get tired of the incessant doomsday scenarios. Not because I'm a "hoper", and not because I don't believe it can happen, but because I'm trading, trying to make a few bucks, and it doesnt help me to feel strongly either way. Markets rarely waterfall up or down, but when they do, you should always take the other side of the trade. The world out there is rapidly deteriorating and "hoping" it all ends in a mess of financial chaos and world war is not that cool. I'd like to see more of an openmindeness here about trading both sides of the market. I Know other places to find such commentary, but it seems a shame to me to waste so much insight and genius( some people here are incredibly bright!) on being married to one side of the market....Just my .02 I guess I would end with this: Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Oh yeah , I forgot... "Wake me up when we really get there." That would be somewhere around SPX 600's, if we rally to SPX 880 first, then I'll see you around SPX 200, I kid you not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 I love being a "trader". No BULL, No BEAR. Only as the market tells me to do: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 What's with the site tonite! Old Habits welcome back-no i don't lose often and I am damn proud of that! That is the name of the game isn't it! Trade safe-I didn't know you were tossed and I'm glad you're back-peace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Hyper, I'm beginning to think your 15 to 20 month time frame might be optimistic. There's something palpable afoot. You can almost taste it. Noticed it in a lot of people today. It's even evident right here in cool clam Stoolville. Doc tossing people, lots of jabs and barbs being traded, general mayham.From the looks of this thread we have split into two camps. I will give no opinion as to which one is right, and thankfully I don't have to play. But if I'm reading this right it's a highly polarized situation and it could lead to whomever is wrong in getting severly wounded. How many more innocent bears must die? (cue Sally Struthers) It's been a stressful week all around. Whatever is going to happen has started in ernest on Main Street. Hope none of you get caught with all your money in digital form. Yes, something definitely is afoot. I couldn't agree more. I can feel it in my bones. Everyone is edgy and nervous and feeling helpless. Buy and holders are beyond point of recognition. They went straight to resignation. They have been screwed, they know it and they don't think that there is a damn thing they can do about it. Depression. Early retirement and the good life gone. Taken away by people and forces that they do not understand or can effectively deal with. Ken Lay made millions running one or the biggest scam operations of all time (his excuse -- he knew nothing) and he gets to keep the money and walk free. See, no justice and no resolution leads to anger, despair and depression. The ranks of the dippers and the buy and holders are thinning. Money will come out of the market and all that will be left is the hedge funds and specuators gaming each other on the next .25 move in QLGC. The whole freaking national mood has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanobody Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Hey Hypertiger: "Wild Cornered Animal?" Sounds like me. ?I'm a Wild Cornered Animal during these Hell Squeezes. Why do the dippers always have the fun? Why are the 500 point moves in 10 trading hours always to the upside and never to the downside? Your "Wild Cornered Animal" stage is a long way off..... Not until the dippers are cornered. Cornered for good, with no "jamjob" escape hatch that always happens to show up. Mark, There is a VERY IMPORTANT fibo time factor that you just touched upon, and it is completely unknown to most people - NO previous bear-market *downleg* has lasted for more than 34 months. We are in un-charted (no pun intended) territory here. The fact that the market is now entering it's 35/36th month of a downtrend is an event of momenumental significance. Normally, 34 months (at most) has marked the end of a bear mkt *downleg* - this time, it has not. Of interest, is that the mkt tends to run in 34 month cycles - and no bounce here - suggests a further 34 month downwards cycle from where the mkt was at last year's end. Fibo extension (50%) of where we are now, certainly allows for Hypertiger's EOTWAWKI scenario to occur in 17 month's time. (For anyone interested in mkt price levels... just divide today's closing prices by two). Why are downside gaps always filled? Why is this crappy market still bouncing hysterically after 35 months? Gaps are 'always filled' because gaps represent a significant change of market sentiment = just a relection of human sentiment. The mkt is like one of those 'psycho chicks' that you frequently allude to in your chronicles - therefore, wild mood-swings can be expected. From a cyclical point-of-view, the mkt will bounce and eff around RIGHT NOW because of the 34-month factor (which I just alluded to). 34 months is a MAJOR cylce, and as such, the mkt will dally around here - before getting into gear one way, or the other. I do not anticipate 'the other' = counter-cyclical = up. The clue to future direction lies in the 'power of 3' - if the mkt is still down after 34+3 = 37 months, then be ready for a 3-generational plunge. Where were the indices 49 years ago? Be ready for them to be there again! However, if the mkt closes up in 3 months' time, then be ready for a 3-gen thrust higher. 2048 will mark the end of this cycle - at a mkt level of 2x ~3x the previous highs! Glassman 36000 DOW is not out of the question! This pig is heading for a significant low in Oct 2006. Beware of the 20% bear mkt rallies of the past. The further the mkt exceeds the 34-month norm, the stronger the intermediate bounces are likely to become. A 68-month decline is likely to see at least one 40% rally before it is done. Ultimately, I do not agree with the EOTWAWKI scenario. I think there are other factors (people) who are gathering sufficient 'power' to avert a complete collapse (return to dark-ages scenario). Regards, Nano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Does anyone know how to post point and figure charts? http://www.stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$INDU When I look at the P&F chart of the Dow, I am seeing a QUADRUPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN that has retraced back to within 50 points of the breakdown at 7950. We are testing a major breakdown here which is much more evident than the head and shoulder pattern seen on a regular chart. Should the retest hold, and the market continue downward, a P&F chartist would then have the necessary information to calculate a downside target within 50 points. If it doesn't hold around here, give or take 50 points, than the 7950 level would become major support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Same thing on the SPX as with the DOW. Could come back up to about 845 although there is a down sloping trend line where it is at right now http://www.stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?...?S=spx&N=A&T=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 WH: I did a cut and paste copy of your chart... Does anyone know how to post point and figure charts?http://www.stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$INDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 WH: Your SPX chart StockCharts.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 WH: I did a cut and paste copy of your chart... Does anyone know how to post point and figure charts? Thankyou. If it does hold I have an initial target of 7200 on the DOW and 775-780 on the SPX at which point I would expect a bounce. These numbers are derived from P&F chart theory. Now, any comments anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 WH: I see what you're referring to on both of those charts. Only, I don't recall the purpose of this type of chart format. I can do a search and read about them, did a while back but I don't use this sort of chart so the memory isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Doc-my target on this down move is 774-war breaks out under 600-terrorism breaks outs 400. Just look at the slope on the point and figure charts-by the way flush thn ks for the charts you are a wizard dude! Trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 IF we do get a continuation of the rally in this upcoming week, the head and shoulders resistance line around 1325 should yank the Nazdawg back to reality. Yelp. courtesy of signalwatch.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.