fxfox Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 GBPUSD downtrend in MACD broekn, no divs yet, but if price moves up quickly and then comes down there would be huge divs i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 USDCHF (swiss franc) here we have the problem: Pos divs sicne many many months, but price didnt lift its ass. CHF is definitely the safe harbor currency, it is also strong agaisnt GBP and EUR, so no wonder it rallies like crazy agaisnt the USD. If the dollar doesnt move up quickly right here the uptrned in MACD will break and price could drop dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 you can see what happens when a hgug pos div in MACD gets broken right here in this example: USDCAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 after all i would say the picture is mixed. I wouldnt say that dollar must reverse here. If that important fibo in euro at 1.3075 gets broken to the upside the dollar downmove could even dramatically accelerate. But in such a case one also has to be carefull becasue it could be that ECB and BoJ get cold feet. No one wants a dollar crash. A orderly downmove is somethign else, but i dont think CB's will allow a real crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 beardrech Oh the Irony:the probablity that the probablist will be the most unlikely person to study highest degree of improbablity will, along with us inumerates, probably suffer the consequences of the occurence of the improbable---beardrech <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 fx; I appreciate the charts...tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 So is the top in fow now? I would take the time to read this article..a couple of paragraphs down the page... This fractal guy Lammert called the October bottom basicly to the hour (although he was looking for a larger decline into it).. [...] Because dollars are in relative short supply; the greatest amount of world debt is denominated in dollars; and debt must be repaid, the US dollar will transiently become a valued entity and the dollar's massive fall against major currencies WILL temporarily cease and the dollar Will rise for a 9-12 month period leaving aside the contrarian implications of everyone barking about the doomed dollar, as well as the positive USD divergences beginning to turn up....and also leaving aside the converse point of a controlled USD decline being positive for the US deficits and economy.... does anyone have any idea what kind of 'short supply' lammert is talking about, e.g. the ratio of USD to the amount required for orderly settlement of dollar-denominated debt? and (at the risk of oversimplification) wouldn't you expect large USD lenders (incl treasury holders) to be partly hedged in some fashion, creating some offsetting demand for other currencies? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I guess I'm too dumb to understand any of this. Is this the same "synthetic dollar short squeeze" argument that Russel? was writing about a few months ago?? So, as our debt instruments are dumped, the dollar rallies??? Well what happens to the value of debt instruments as the currency is rising? Any dollar rally should be met with more debt selling I would think and that would according to this "squeeze" cause the dollar to rally further? And who is going to be buying those debt instruments ? And I asume they will use some sort of currency. Too complicated for my little brain so I guess I'll just hold gold. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Chiefywiefy, I too have never understood Russell's "synthetic short" discussion. It seems predicated on the idea that borrowers as a group will face a sort of panic to pay their debt, generating a sharp increase in demand for dollars. But, I assume that any such situation--characterized by panic--would likely see escalating default. Given debt levels, I assume defaults would swamp the search for dollars that creates expectations for a squeeze. BWTFDIK. I like your simple gold prescription in the face of our shared confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Currency traders, investors and strategists are more bearish on the dollar than at any time in the past 18 months, a Bloomberg News survey indicates. Seventy percent of the 54 strategists, investors and traders polled on Nov. 19 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro, the most since May 2003. Two-thirds advised selling it against the yen. The U.S. currency fell to a record $1.3074 per euro on Nov. 18 and dropped to the lowest in more than four years versus the yen the next day. ``The Fed recognizes it's inevitable,'' that the dollar weaken, said Rosenberg, former head of global currency research at Deutsche Bank AG. ``People are jumping on board; it's clear the dollar's going down. We could be at $1.35 to $1.40 very quickly.'' He said his firm is placing bets on a drop in the U.S. currency compared with the euro and the yen. Still, ``you'd be crazy to punt against'' further declines in the dollar, said Alex Schuman, manager of foreign-exchange strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``When these trends are so well entrenched it's always just too dangerous to pick an end to it in any individual week.'' Japanese companies are increasingly negative toward the dollar, according to a weekly survey conducted by the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. About 85 percent of 40 Japan-based firms surveyed are ``bearish'' or ``neutral'' against the dollar compared with the yen, up from 77 percent last week, the bank said in an e-mailed statement on Nov. 19. ............................. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Wow, looks pretty much like just about everybody has their short positions on... Another "sign" being blissfully ignored.... Here's a Euro chart with May 2003 noted.....but a decline like that wouldn't even be worth worrying about I guess.. BTW, I am not rulling out one last leg up in the Euro here, and will play it should it occur, but by just about every measure, the risk of holding Euros long is high here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeakOil Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 after all i would say the picture is mixed. I wouldnt say that dollar must reverse here. If that important fibo in euro at 1.3075 gets broken to the upside the dollar downmove could even dramatically accelerate. But in such a case one also has to be carefull becasue it could be that ECB and BoJ get cold feet. No one wants a dollar crash. A orderly downmove is somethign else, but i dont think CB's will allow a real crash. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Nice charts! Tanks Foxie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 K-wave, sorry if this is a dumb question, but I'm a TA beginner... ....on that chart, it looks as if there -aren't- divergences...i.e. both the slow and fast MACD are moving -up-.... Wouldn't that imply another leg up is beginning? or am I messing-up on my chart-reading here? tanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 A currency crisis is a rare thing: arguably even more rare than a stock market crash. Therefore, those who hold expectations for them should do so only with awareness that they are trying to anticipate an extremely unlikely event. I think the setup for a fullblown global dollar crisis exists--but that doesn't mean it's likely or necessarily going to happen. Volker puts the odds for one at 75% in the next 5 years. Sounds about right to me. I would totally disagree that "everyone" is loaded up dollar short now. For example, all those ARM mortgages and refis etablished in the last several years are leveraged dollar long: the increase in interest rates that would accompany a further substantial slide in the dollar are going to punish these folks, both on a monthly cashflow basis, and on an primary-asset-value basis. Now, if smart money tends to dispossess dumb money of their wealth, how would you assign those titles to forex traders and homeborrowers who chose a 40 year low in rates to go adjustable? Additionally, I wonder what those surveys of forex traders might have revealed on the eve of the Asia crisis? Sometimes, a crowd can be right. Sometimes, they can fullfill the prophecy, and forcefully declare themselves the winner. And they are being ably assisted by an administration that babbles periodically about a "strong dollar" that inspires absolutely zero confidence. Perhaps the short-dollar trade appears to be becoming crowded... but if you consider the vast global masses who are still yet in a position to join it, by dumping their dollar-denominated assets, I'd say there's still plenty of room. Doesn't necessarily begin tomorrow. Given fundamentals, I confess that I will be suprised by a substantial rally in the dollar. And since a crisis is a rare event, I think the high probability event is consolidation within a trading range before the next move down. But I think there's little doubt that ultimately, the dollar goes lower over the next 5 years, so any rally presents an extremely attractive opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 K-wave, sorry if this is a dumb question, but I'm a TA beginner... ....on that chart, it looks as if there -aren't- divergences...i.e. both the slow and fast MACD are moving -up-.... Wouldn't that imply another leg up is beginning? or am I messing-up on my chart-reading here? tanks! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The divergences are that price has made a new high while both MACD's are far below their old highs... The fact that they are both crossed up is potentially bullish..and that is why I would not be surprised to see another leg up on the Euro, despite the overwhelming bullishness... The thing to watch for now is a turn down in the MACD's before they reach their old highs..that would be the classic divergent sell signal..we do not have that yet..but with bullishness this extreme, it could come at any time.. Or..we could be in one those once in a generation moves where it just keeps goin' up and up and up...but with 90+ percent COT readings, I wouldn't count on it.. I'm plannin' to be long the Euro above 1.3050 and short below 1.2950.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 tanks K-wave, appreciate the explanation very much. well, no matter which way things go, energy is still expensive, so we're headed up the mountain to get another truckload of good red-oak! see y'all later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 Fox u can?t compare old car with new car which has 15% More power, slick and attractive, (gold backing) I suggest u start fresh. If u looks at Dollar index then it?s not going to give u a true picture because Those Asians Bankers are corrupting the data, don?t use corrupted data for any T/A So u needs to see real data which one can see in Euro I can give u more insight but it won?t make u think, Hope it helps those blinded Butt papers holder. Fed hasn?t got any currency risk only the bag holders will suffer the losses. Any sell off around 122-125 should be brought with vengeance. In 2 years time one will the results. EURUSD we have neg divs, but MACD didnt make bearish cross yet. I have often seen that the SECOND divegence is the one which signals a change in trend, while at the first one preice doesnt care about it, so in this case if the MACD makes bearish cross then euro uptrned should be over for a while. To confirm that a close below weekly ema 52 is needed. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted November 21, 2004 Report Share Posted November 21, 2004 those nice credit card companies that sent out all the 0%, etc, offers now ready to turn the screws?: Soaring Interest Compounds Credit Card Pain for Millions Mr. Schwebel, 58, a semiretired software engineer in Gilbert, Ariz., was not pleased that his minimum monthly payment jumped from $502 in June to $895 in July. But what really made him angry, he said, was the sense that he was being punished despite having held up his end of the bargain with MBNA. "I paid the bills the minute the envelope hit the desk," said Mr. Schwebel, who had accumulated $69,000 in debt over five years before the rate increase. "All of a sudden in July, they swapped it to 18 percent. No warning. No reason. It was like I was blindsided." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.