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IDS World Markets Mon 16th November 09


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Crystal blue balls futuristic prognostickometer sees SP between 1100 and 1090 by the end of the day.

I'm still holding short, but losing my grip.

Remember, I'm a great fade.

 

Isn't there some super unimportant Burnanke speech today?

 

I'm going out - need to get the damn roller ball on the Crackberry fixed. I've only had it 9 months, and I barely use it. What a POS.

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warning.......

DJ ECB Nowotny: Some EMU Members Are Having Equilibrium Problems

 

 

VIENNA (Dow Jones)--Euro-zone members with large external imbalances need to

start making policy-driven economic adjustments "as soon as possible," Ewald

Nowotny, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said

Monday.

 

"It's necessary for those countries that are experiencing equilibrium

problems to start fiscal and economic discipline," Nowotny said on the

sidelines of a conference here, hosted by the Austrian central bank, which he

governs.

 

Nowotny's remarks came as spreads on Greek government bonds, the weakest

sovereign debt of any euro-zone member, widened sharply.

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Is there any talk in the main stream media yet that the days of the cheap Chinese imports for the holiday seasons may be over; so, everybody better rush out now to lock in supply and prices?

 

The death of the dollar cannot be good for all those high end import cars.

 

When will the populace in the US realize this? I know they first have to see some inflation in prices.

I'm not sure dollar weakness = price inflation anymore, so you may be waiting a long time.

 

It did when the U.S. produced the goods that we consumed: dollar weakness afforded domestic producers pricing power without foreign producers capacity to compete. This was in the 1970s.

 

Now, it just means diminished domestic consumption/wealth/standard of living and/or thinner foreign margins. Not goods/service inflation. Once the vendor financing qua FCB recycling ends - effectively, a consumer subsidy - we'll realize how poor we are as a nation on an income basis. Weak income = weak price inflation. The curtailment of that FCB recycling will also curtail the inflation where it's resulted the past two decades: in asset prices.

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I'm not sure dollar weakness = price inflation anymore, so you may be waiting a long time.

 

It did when the U.S. produced the goods that we consumed: dollar weakness afforded domestic producers pricing power without foreign producers capacity to compete. This was in the 1970s.

 

Now, it just means diminished domestic consumption/wealth/standard of living and/or thinner foreign margins. Not goods/service inflation. Once the vendor financing qua FCB recycling ends - effectively, a consumer subsidy - we'll realize how poor we are as a nation on an income basis. Weak income = weak price inflation. The curtailment of that FCB recycling will also curtail the inflation where it's resulted the past two decades: in asset prices.

A BMW produced in Germany or a Lexus produced in Japan has to cost more (inflation) in the US based on the dollar weakness unless the manufacturer gets a subsidy from some government or they accept lower profits in their own countries due to currency conversion. Where is this logic wrong?

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They blew the doors off on the size of the 4 week bill, just as I prognosticated. (It wasn't hard. Only have to look at collapsing tax receipts.) $32 billion instead of $26 billion forecast by TBAC.

 

However, there's no CMB announcement. Am I missing something here? If they don't roll it, they could blow the roof off this market.

 

Gotta go for awhile. Later!

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A BMW produced in Germany or a Lexus produced in Japan has to cost more (inflation) in the US based on the dollar weakness unless the manufacturer gets a subsidy from some government or they accept lower profits in their own countries due to currency conversion. Where is this logic wrong?

Why I am still in the deflation camp-higher prices can force the consumer to buy less or buy less expensive things, instead of BMW and Lexus, how about VW and Toyota or a Ford.

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A BMW produced in Germany or a Lexus produced in Japan has to cost more (inflation) in the US based on the dollar weakness unless the manufacturer gets a subsidy from some government or they accept lower profits in their own countries due to currency conversion. Where is this logic wrong?

I apologize for following-up on my earlier response, but I just realized why all this nonsense keeps bugging me.

 

In my own personal experience as a small business person, I frequently have to pay invoices from and receive payment on invoices to foreign businesses. More of those businesses are invoicing in their local currencies. That means when there is a US dollar movement lower during the period between receipt of foreign invoice and collection from our client, I either have to substantially raise currency conversion costs (inflation to the client) or else absorb a loss on the transaction (which has happened). So unless major businesses have constantly bet against the dollar for months now, they have to be suffering the same currency issues as we are assuming again that there are no government subsidies distorting the business transaction.

 

I understand that our being a small business has different rules than the big boys, but the ordinary laws of economics generally assume a simplified set of model constraints.

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