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B4 The Bell Moonday August 23


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Good Golly Miss Moly..." Molybdenum soars 400 per cent"..."Global demand for stainless steel has soared, sending prices for molybdenum, a byproduct of Copper Mining , up by 400 per cent in the last 2 years and adding $50 Million to Teck Cominco's second quarter operating profits from its Highland Valley mine in the B.C. interior. Molybdenum-oxide prices have jumped to $17.50 U.S. a pound from as low as $2.50 in 2002." Want to guess where the demand is coming from?? yup Asia and particularily China! ;)

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Good stuff Plunger.

 

Over a decade ago, the US Economy became a net importer of critical resource supplies, most notably crude oil. Other important and strategic metals such as copper and titanium and cobalt now enter our country as raw materials. We still dig up the earth?s bounty, but not enough to be net neutral. Beginninged as manufacturing processes were dispatched offshore, primarily to Asia, but also to Mexico. Lower labor costs were the attraction, and facilitated the offshore movement. We still produce end products, but not enough to be net neutral. The advent of our technological developments, worldwide computer network connectivity, improved foreigner science education and English speaking, all render our service manpower as vulnerable. US? labor costs are a quantum level higher. Our sacrosanct service sector, on an accelerated basis, is now being sidestepped under the directive of? cost cuts. Service functions, from low-level call centers to high-level skilled operations such as software design and accounting, are being outsourced to Asia, mainly China and India. Lower labor costs are again the attraction, and provide impetus for the outsource movement. We still provide wide-ranging services, enough to be net positive by about $5 billion steadily per month. The manufactured goods side of the equation reveals gaps almost ten times this size, to produce a net $41 to 43 billion monthly deficit. We have made big strides to become foreign dependent in recent years. Critical industries such as steel and automobiles are losing ground, and capital itself is imported on a grand scale. Decline of critical industries plainly jeopardizes our national security.

 

America has had to resort to inflation, leverage, and financial engineering in order to create wealth and remain as the predominant world power and largest world economy. Its real engines of wealth (machines and people) have been either abandoned or circumvented.

 

EXPORTED INFLATION & CRISES

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/willie/2004/0510.html

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Good Golly Miss Moly..." Molybdenum soars 400 per cent"..."Global demand for stainless steel has soared, sending prices for molybdenum, a byproduct of Copper Mining , up by 400 per cent in the last 2 years and adding $50 Million to Teck Cominco's second quarter operating profits from its Highland Valley mine in the B.C. interior.  Molybdenum-oxide prices have jumped to $17.50 U.S. a pound from as low as $2.50 in 2002."  Want to guess where the demand is coming from?? yup Asia and particularily China! ;)

Type 316 stainless, one of the more popular alloys, contains 2 to 3% molybdenum by specification (ASTM A240). "Moly" is a minor ingredient in the mix, but by far the most costly.

 

T316 stainless is used in many industries -- equipment for food, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor production, to name a few.

 

There are some 400 series, high-chromium, non-moly-containing stainless alloys that can be substituted in some applications. But substitution is a difficult process. Among other things, T316 stainless is non-magnetic, whereas a magnet will stick to the 400 series alloys.

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Despite the dollah propping today, the CRB index has risen to 277.40 ... only 2.7% below its 20-year high of 285.08 set earlier this year.

 

Mad Al's $1.25 trillion custody account is basically just another commodity producer's price-rigging pool (the commodity, in this case, being the paper dollah).

 

Every commodity pool in history has failed. So will Mad Al's. Meaning that the dollah and bonds lose their artificially-induced premium, and it will take more dollahs to buy guns, gold and goulash ...

The ?pool? operators (foreign central banks) have bought Treasuries at a rate of $500 billion per year in the 4 weeks ending on August 18. All done stealthily and with almost no comment from the lapdog press. Surprisingly purchases at a lesser $300 to $400 billion annual rate in the first quarter were enough to get long term rates down low enough to generate a mini-refinancing boom.

 

The after-effects of those first quarter CB buying binges still linger in the form of accelerating inflation. The Fed?s warnings about deflation early this year now seem almost laughable. Still AG is a god-head and no one questions his dismal forecasting record.

 

The Fed and other CBs will have to move all the faster now to out run the inflation they unleashed.

 

From Through the Looking Glass (Carroll 1872):

 

"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place"

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Sherlock- the Military doesn't give a rats ass about manufacturing capacity for their needs-two examples-the Abrams battle Tank is made in Egypt (if I was in the Tank Corp that would scare Hell outta me).  Then from todays Vancouver Sun- a large Photo of 4 F-16's in flight, with the caption "Outsourcing into the Wild Blue Yonder"-byline..."South Korea is now producing McDonnell Douglas F-16 fighter jets for use in its Air Force under license from the Pentagon.  These 4 took flight last week."..don't worry though we still make paper plates and deodorant ;)

Brian, the info you cited is what the US has done to help other nations provide

the capability to produce things for themselves, called Foreign Millitary Sales.

Instead of us producing the items and shipping them to that country, we provided

the expertise for them to produce their own. They paid for this service.

I worked those projects for a number of years.

 

The Egypt project is for the M1A1 Tank, not our much more sophisticated M1A2.

Further, those tanks have all Arabic screens for the IT and would not be

suitable for use by the US troops. We, the USA, have no more capabilty to

produce tanks. All the production facilities for them have now been closed.

Our current activities are simply upgrades to the units in the field.

 

When Saudi Arabia bought tanks from the US during the 90's, their buy enabled

the Lima Army Tank Plant to stay open and gave the US the opportunity to build

a few more tanks when the small US order was insufficient to keep LIMA open.

 

Mr. Rumsfeld does not believe that tanks are essential to his new Army.

Army Leaders such as GEN Sinsenki opposed his view. Our tanks in Iraq

speak the truth.

 

Sorry, but the military is VERY concerned about manufacturing capacity for

their needs. You must remember that funding cuts by Congress as well as

the directives of the Secy of Defense (Rumsfeld) determine what is possible.

The requirements go far beyond tanks, but I know best about tracked and wheeled

vehicles. While the Army has far more boats than the Navy, I cannot speak to the

needs of things that fly in the air. LOL

 

I worked the Army R&D scene for a few years, also, doing Long Range Strategic

Planning. All the alternatives for a HOT industrial base vs a WARM industrial base

vs a COLD industrial base were considered. I think we are now on the COLD model.

 

Here on capitalstool, I realize that the focus is on the commercial markets, but

the military component of the US economy is HUGE, so I think it is important to

understand that HUGE element.

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The Fed and other CBs will have to move all the faster now to out run the inflation they unleashed.

 

From Through the Looking Glass (Carroll 1872):

 

"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place"

Yes. Basically they have to buy Treasurys & Agencies at an accelerating rate, to hold the real interest rate negative as goods prices crank higher.

 

Ponzi logic says that the growth imperative trumps everything. So if prices start rising at 10%, the pool operators must expand bond holdings at 15% or 20% ... whatever it takes.

 

One of our former stoolies (jrmfl) is projecting a short-lived hyperinflation during the second half of 2005, as the pool operators' frantic flailing sends this process parabolic ... and then burns itself out, as every hyperinflation does.

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Pee - for example, just think about all the stock-option money that the oligarchs have "received", none of it accounted for properly. How much would those options have been worth if the underlying enterprise were forced to show the option as an expense on the income statement? Probably a lot less than they were, if not zero in many cases.

 

I'm all for cashing in on good ideas and better mousetraps. But not immorally as in the case of non-expensed stock options.

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One of our former stoolies (jrmfl) is projecting a short-lived hyperinflation during the second half of 2005, as the pool operators' frantic flailing sends this process parabolic ... and then burns itself out, as every hyperinflation does.

Even though I'm in the deflation camp, I do get that this all ends ugly when the cb's stop buying treasuries and hyperinflation ensues briefly. Then everything crashes to earth in a deflationary death spiral. Right?

 

But what I don't get is, what will make them stop buying treasuries? What's their line in the sand, pain threshold? When does buying more treasuries inflict more pain on Japan than if they wouldn't? Has anyone done the math and figured this out? It's possible we are in a blowoff that lasts for years no?

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