The End Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShitEatingGrinner Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 you guys should take the politics to political stool, where I will destroy your arguments with no logic and plenty of irrational moral outrage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 Any discussion about politics should be on "politcal stool" , not here. :wink2: I agree 100%. Tell the Lefties. lol... SEG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 B4, Prztl, Check E mail. Good night fellow stoolies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 I'm outta here too. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 Countries that produce weapons and let everyone know about it are obviously seeking deterrent. Those that build them and attempt to keep them secret intend to use them. That makes Saddam more dangerous than N. Korea, Russia, China, etc. Wow, Saddam says he does not have any, weapons inspectors can not find any.....but you know he secretly builds them and thus intends to use them. You should speak to the U.N.. Why waste precious time here in Stooltown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 It is still a bear market I see. It's gonna take a lot to suck in the guys on the sidelines, let alone trying to keep in the ones ready to jump ship. Without volume the rise will ring hollow. Seems like the only game in town lately is the war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 first post - here goes- im not this boring all the time. future post will be shorter! doc's commentary deals with IRV and direct capitalization of income. ?its a very simple way to arrive at value, simply divide income by an Overall Rate (OAR). ? since almost no one understands what is in the rate, analists/borkers can try and get away with using an unusually low OAR... utilizing a 5-year bond rate is laughable. ?not just because it is too low, but because on bonds the rate equals the yield. ?R=Y! ? remember, R only equals Y if there is no change in income AND value. ?think about it. ?at a 20 pe you would buy a stock with $.05 in income for every $1.00 in value/price with the expectation that the income would stay flat and the stock price would be the same at the end of the holding period (and assumes that 5 years from now some sucker will pay you the same amount you paid). ?so if the change in income and value is a constant ratio (CR) annually, and you want a 12% yield, you have to project a 7% CR change in income and value: 12% = 5% + 7% (CR). ?this is not my opinion, its simple math.... thats fine your $10 stock earning $.50 a year will be earning $.70 and selling for $14.03 five years from now with a 7% contstant ratio annual increases in both I and V. the big bitch is that the variables are inter-related. ?what if the "I" isnt really .05 per $1.00 and what if the projected CR isnt positive, but negative.... ?if the "I" is .30 after cutting through the crap, and the CR is not positive, but negative instead, say the same 7%, then you have y = .03 - .07, so y = -4%: note the swing from +12% to -4%. ?thats one way to look at it, you bleed to death. ?but what really happens is that the market still demands its "Y", so first it heads to other investments, like say bonds, then san diego real estate. ?then the prices go so high, that you cant get the 12% "Y" (without huge appreciation), but the sheeple dont realize it, they just lower the R. ?they are at the rear of the baitball. what hasnt happened yet on Main Street is the realization that the I is going down (or was inflated to begin with), which as you can see above will require a very LARGE "R" to get any kind of "Y." ?in order to get a 12% "Y" with a negative 7% CR, this is what you get: 12% = 19% - 7%. ?so the R becomes 19%, which indicates a pe of +/- 4x, not 20x! ?so that $10 stock with true earnings of $.30 and projected "challenging environment going forwward" (-7% CR), now sells for $.30/.19 or $1.58 (I/R = V). voila, an 84% haircut. ?note the compound impact of reduced income, plus reduced expectations via multiple (p/e) contraction. you can make it as complex (and as boring) as you like, and the I and V dont change at a constant ratio, but without the I you cant get the Y without lowering the "V". anyone still awake? Are you trying to say stocks are over valued stool, analists are full of stool, and sheeple are stoolpid? Gee, I realize you're new, but please try and use the correct terminology from now on. Tanks! P.S. Doc, see what happens when you talk fundamentals? Everyone starts talking this gibberish! You're setting a bad example! Please, you know how much I hate fundamentals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 Yep...front run every rallly! They will front run this one so early that it will be time for a COMPLETE TANKING when the war rally is actually due. I think that Robert Prechter, Doug Noland and Doc have said it all... The market is in for a slow downward trend. I think that Doc said it all when he said that the Nasdork will not even be a tradable index in the next several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxxPain Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 Stock valuation is dependent on making forecasts which is just guessing. A simple formula where the variables are guesses isn't going to help much. If you consider that the earnings of companies are leveraged to the stock market through their pension plans you realize you have to predict the stock market inorder to predict their earnings. In the long run earnings can't grow faster than the economy. The economy is dependent on unsustainable deficit spending by both the gooberment and consumers. The US economy is going to go down hard. Prepare for depression. The major growth area for employment is health care and gooberment and gooberment pays for alot of the health care. Who is going to pay the gooberment? Not Mr dividend say Mr. Bush. The connection between Iraq and the market is very weak. It's likely the economy is going to slow down so much we won't need Iraqi oil for a long time. A war will have a negative return to the US economy because it will drive the gooberment deficit higher. Doom, Gloom, Doom, Gloom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phrith Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 The End - In the Ozzy Ozbourne meets Florence Henderson department, I couldn't help but think of you today when I heard that George Winston has a new CD called "Night Divides the Day - The Music of the Doors" or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 GOLD CORRECTION ALREADY BEGUN Looks like the gold stocks are leading the price of gold down. Sons of Gwalia has reated back a long way - good buy point. But its only a correction folks. THE WAR RALLY The war rally will be over before the war has actually begun! CREAMER FILES I looked at the street today. THE HORROR THE HORROR I thing Creamer is on the verge of becoming a BEAR!!!! Expect him to start posting here soon!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 I may direct a Strindberg play this Spring and if so we can comemorate it to your brother. buddhadropping, I would be honored if you did that, and thank you for your kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 I nominate this article on Yahoo for the Silly Article of the Week Award. Sorry URL too long to post so I'll do a few excerpts: "NEW YORK - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is considering launching a mutual fund that tests an increasingly popular investment concept: behavioral finance. Fund managers who pick stocks on behavioral finance concepts believe that stock-market moves are tied to the psychology of investors, who act irrationally but in a consistent manner." Ok now I know its possible to be consistently irrational but it is possible to be irrationally consistent? BARE I expect an answer from you on this. Lots of drivel and waffle "An example of how it works: A follower of behavioral finance would try to sell a stock just when a company is at its peak of popularity, under the assumption that investors always flock to the best-performing stocks and drive their prices unnaturally high." Wow, makes rocket science look easy!! Heaps more drivel/waffle "Dreman chuckles at the idea of newcomers trading on the concepts. "The problem is, it's hard to use," Dreman said." Yep, unless you've got an IQ of 150+ and run a mutual fund, tough titties, you haven't got what it takes. And right on the end of the article? "Undiscovered Managers Behavior Growth lost 17.5 percent in 2002, better than the Nasdaq's drop of 32 percent. The Behavior Value fund lost 16.1 percent in 2002, beating the S&P 500, which dropped 22 percent in the same period, but in line with losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted February 11, 2003 Report Share Posted February 11, 2003 interesting niblet from bernie's site: last week was the first week since at least jan 2002 that the DJIA didn't close either up or down 100+ points on any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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