Doug Noland Returns

[beardrech]

Thats right out of the Carlton Sheethebed no money down infomercial.

 

I don't know how people do it. I'm always what iffing stuff before I make choices and ran across a similar expeirence with a couple of freinds in their 20's who just got into a 400k home on a 300k 5 year ARM at 3 %. So before he bought I what iffed him and got an earfull. They sold a beautiful townhome also to get this place as well.

 

So after they close they then proceeded to buy a big screen TV, throw out perfectly good living room furniture for a new set of leather couches, put on a huge deck, leased an acura and and new accord, landscaped the property fully and the dude bought a motor cycle when my brother in law was in from California over the summer cause he turned him on to riding and got him into a Honda showroom.

 

The wife teaches karate part time and the guy was selling light bulbs two years and became a mortgage broker right at the height of the euphoria. He was processing about seven loans a week a lot of em who were serial refinancers.

 

Now I don't know what he makes and I know they don't come from wealthy families but I think that just shows you how much leverage there is out there today and how easy it is to get.

To paraphrase Archimedes:Give me a Penis big enough and along with it a proportional testicular fulcrum , and I'll have enough leverage to jam the a***ole of the entire world----

 

On the other hand screw it; just give me a bushel full of options and a Corporate shell----

 

acrobatically yours beardreech

[alex]

Tower wrote:

Marc Faber is not a director.

 

Marc Faber was appointed to the board of Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO), a corporate affiliate (related subsidiary) of IVAN, in Feb. 2002. Here is the company link:

 

http://www.ivanhoe-mines.com/s/Directors_E..._Executives.asp

 

ALL trading is speculation, but I would place my money on Friedland/ Calandra over Forbes/Pluvia anyday.

[Old Habits]

Was it Buddah that posted that when the Homebuilders crack, that this market was toast?

 

I find it interesting that BZH would file for a $200 million shelf offering after producing earnings of $4.18 a share this quarter. Then they were generous enough to offer a $.10 dividend. S & P gave BZH's debt rating a whopping Ba2.

 

I suspect their will be alot of bagholders on BZH and other homebuilders when todays' crack turns into a full fledged crater.

 

Mark, hope you took your own advice and bought CAU on todays dip. I already owned some but added the past 2 days. The new high list will be filled with miners in the next few weeks.

[longOnUranus]

... if I were in the matrix's shoes I'd worry about 2 things now: how would I prop up the market in '04 and what would I do about the deficit.  Both can be somewhat mitigated by walking the markets down and forcing the sheeple to take profit.  ...That's of course assuming an omnipotent and omnipresent matrix.

Prices, of course, are set at the margin. I don't see a gradual extraction of market liquidity at this level; there will be too many eager sellers (who are HEAVILY margined) when the decline becomes evident. I think we go substantially lower before the market becomes well-bid enough for stability; only the early-comers to the '03 rally will have the benefit of discretionary selling. "Taxable revenues" will be the mother of all oxymorons, since a lot of Bermuda Bucks will be required to float this POS enough to allow J6P to bail with money in the bag. It will be a huge wash (at best) for the govt.

 

As Fokker posted above, all assets are generously priced at the moment. There will be NO place to put money which will not be subject to deflationary forces: even under a mattress.

 

The USS Bubble II does not have nearly enough lifeboats. Many innocents will sink, frozen, Goodbye Jack-style, into the abyss, before they know the boat's sinking.

 

Damn, Hypertiger. You've brainwashed me.

[lb]

Tower wrote:

 

Marc Faber was appointed to the board of Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO), a corporate affiliate (related subsidiary) of IVAN, in Feb. 2002. Here is the company link:

 

http://www.ivanhoe-mines.com/s/Directors_E..._Executives.asp

 

ALL trading is speculation, but I would place my money on Friedland/ Calandra over Forbes/Pluvia anyday.

You guys are grate. This sight is great. Better then a bunch of freakin librarians.

 

But no picture of Mark. What gives

[dozer]

No matter how much I'd love to see the system swept into the sea....

 

...I would rather have that slow ratchet down, rather than a calamitous drop.

 

A sudden big crash implies bad things....like weird trading-restrictions, or even "all screens go dark".

 

Stoolies will clean up on a slow staged down.

[GregFokker]

Faber:

 

Regarding commodities, I continue to believe that we are at the beginning of a multi year bull market. In other words, after the more than 20 years old bear market, commodity prices have, in my opinion made secular lows and will rise considerably more in the years to come. However, the commodity theme has become rather popular and a meaningful setback would not come as a surprise to me. Prices for industrial commodities such as Steel, Alumina, and Nickel have exploded on the upside, while cotton has doubled over the last twelve months and is now at a five-year high. And while it is possible that the current first leg within a long-term bull market in commodities may have some further upside potential, investors should fully realize that "China and commodities" have become a very well known and popular theme among the investment community!

 

[...]

 

The problem I have is that I don't find many bargains today anywhere, except maybe among precious metals, which are partly commodities and partly the only really "hard currencies", whose supply cannot be increased meaningfully. Platinum prices are at a 23-year high. Thus, it is entirely possible that also gold and silver will fly to the upside in the next two years.

 

http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/marketcoms/in...xmarketcoms.htm

[GregFokker]

Yep- will continue to hold my core position, and try to be patient to load up again.

[alex]

lb wrote:

But no picture of Mark. What gives?  

 

Mark or Marc? Marc is the bald one. Mark is the one in the lingerie.

 

Re Faber's article of caution, sounds like being part of the crowd doesnt suit his contrarian style Then again, keep in mind the guy's office is in Hong Kong, where you can still hop over to tea in a rickshaw - not exactly rubbing elbows with J6P.

[Guest]

Re Ivan pls read anal cysts post-I mean Puhleeze- a posting on a few chat boards by a group of well known wing nuts and all of a sudden a Company is a Fraud-Anyone who has done due diligence on Ivan knows otherwise.  

You don't know what you're talking about.

 

Bob Friedland is scum. Period.

 

Admittedly, he had the good fortune to walk into a massive nickel deposit but as the saying goes that was though no skill or judgement on his part. With apologies to Doc's bookstore (I checked, it wasn't there) here is Amazon's write up of the definitive account:

 

At the centre is Robert Friedland, an ex-hippie and disgraced Vancouver stock promoter, who by sheer luck ended up holding all the cards in a high-stakes poker game that pitted some of the world's most powerful and conservative mining companies against each other.

 

Big Score: Robert Friedland, Inco, and the Voisey's Bay Hustle

 

Lots of other info on Toxic Bobs past colourful endeavours available via the powerful medium that is the google search engine. For those lacking imagination I can suggest the following search terms:

 

Robert Friedland + penny stock scam

Robert Friedland + mercenaries

Robert Friedland + oppressive tinpot dictatorships

Robert Friedland + environmental disaster

Robert Friedland + LSD trafficking

Robert Friedland + Hindu deity revelations

 

Get the idea?

[alborz]

Damn, Hypertiger. You've brainwashed me.

:lol:

 

Maybe Hypertiger is right - but I'm done gaming the crash scenario. I'm on the side of matrix wins the short-term. Cost me too much money to doubt it. In '02 I believed that we'd get a Nov. election rally but listening to the overly bearish calls I bailed out of my long positions in late Oct. To make things worse, I went short. The matrix has operated flawlessly ever since and I've lost a bundle. The overwhelming evidence suggests that it will continue to manage for a while longer. Many middle of the road anal cysts don't see a crash either. I found this link (posted by a stoolie before) very helpful http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/barrons/

Crash is too painful anyway. Slow and steady decline into support is what I want for Christmas.

[Captain's Log]

AB just posted this on stool's gold. Fraud watchers "pluvia" all over IVAN

 

 

 

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/m...?msgid=19476469

Wow - interesting article. If you own IVAN read it.

 

I am long only 300 CHK and 100 PKZ ( I'm keeping 100 shares just so I can keep my eye on it ! Sold rest @ 22.80). Was holding 300 EWJs for election bonner but my nerve went on me. Took my intraday rise and bailed.

 

Parked 50% of my money in RYJUX tuesday but moved 15% to RYAIX. 20% cash. Watching. Afraid to fart in case it is a wet one.

[FeedFool]

Something to think about.

 

 

Over the past two years, unprecedented mortgage finance excess has pushed our current account deficit to blow-off extremes, and in the processes has helped stoke the Chinese economy into it own runaway boom. The Chinese boom now stokes other booms, and so on and so forth.

The Post-King Dollar Global Liquidity Bubble is now nurturing an emerging markets borrowing boom, with unprecedented speculation and Credit Availability internationally. Importantly, The Great Credit Bubble is reaching the stage of becoming an all-encompassing global phenomenon. Global dollar liquidity excess coupled with the Chinese boom fuels an expanding boom throughout Asia. Surging demand and rising prices (especially in dollar terms), has now engendered an inflationary bias throughout the commodities markets. anal cysts should be cautious in dismissing the fledgling commodities Bubble. After all, we have witnessed over the previous years scores of incipient Bubbles develop into spectacular ones.

 

U.S. railroads' cargo shipments rose 7.3 percent in October, including the biggest rise in rail-truck shipments in at least four years,

 

 

A recent surge in ocean-shipping rates to their highest levels in decades is adding upward pressure on already rising commodity prices that could push up the cost of imported goods in the U.S. and other countries. With the demand for seafaring vessels far outstripping supply, the cost of shipping iron ore, soybeans, coal and other commodities used in the manufacture of a wide range of goods has nearly tripled this year. The Baltic Dry Index, the key industry indicator for commodity freight rates, has doubled in just the last two months. Industry officials say there are no signs of relief on the horizon in terms of lower prices or additional supplies of vessels... China's surging economy is creating a huge demand for ships to import the basic raw materials the country needs to build infrastructure, supply its massive manufacturing sector and satisfy a growing consumer market... Although ships come in different sizes and shapes, the current spot cost to rent a typical bulk ship -- the length of between two and three football fields -- to ferry coal or iron ore is about $75,000 a day, say traders and shipbrokers. That compares with $20,000 to $28,000 a day in January."

 

"China's purchases of goods from abroad surged 41 percent in the first nine months of 2003, positioning it to pass Japan this year as the world's third-largest importer, behind the U.S. and Germany. The buying spree has helped boost prices for producers of commodities from metals to agricultural products... China has become the engine of global growth,' said Donald H. Straszheim, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. chief economist..."

 

 

I believe the symbiotic ballooning of GSE and foreign central bank balance sheets is a major factor in recent unusual "money" behavior (and I will dive into this analysis next week).

For now, it is worth noting that China's foreign-exchange reserves jumped $17.1 billion during October to $401 billion. Year-to-date, largely dollar reserve holdings have surged $114.6 billion, or an annualized 48%. Chinese reserves increased $74.2 billion during 2002. For further perspective, China's reserves expanded $5.0 billion during 1998, $9.7 billion during 1999, $10.9 billion during 2000, and $46.6 billion during 2001. Through September, Bank of Japan foreign-exchange reserves have surged $132.6 billion, or 39% annualized. Bank of Japan reserves increased $63.7 billion for all of 2002. Combined Chinese and Japanese foreign-exchange reserves are on pace to balloon $314 billion this year (43%), compared to last year's $138 billion. Gone Parabolic.

Quite simply, the world has never witnessed financial sector and global central bank liquidity creation such as we are currently experiencing. "Reliquefication" having run out of control...

 

 

>>>>>>>>>>Click Here<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

[Captain's Log]

IVAN!!??

Oh great, just fu*king great!

GTN:

 

Check out this response to the message.

 

Also, look up "Pluvia Securities Research" in your favorite search engine.

 

You'll see some interesting stuff.

Hmmm: Interesting position on that "guy" Whatever Pluvia" is, he seems to be influencial. It maybe sell on the rumour and buy on the news for IVAN.

 

Wonder if "Pluvia" can say something about management of QQQ or SPY 's being a bunch of fraudsters. That Greenspan guy looks shifty to me.

[FeedFool]

:lol:

 

Maybe Hypertiger is right - but I'm done gaming the crash scenario. I'm on the side of matrix wins the short-term. Cost me too much money to doubt it. In '02 I believed that we'd get a Nov. election rally but listening to the overly bearish calls I bailed out of my long positions in late Oct. To make things worse, I went short. The matrix has operated flawlessly ever since and I've lost a bundle. The overwhelming evidence suggests that it will continue to manage for a while longer. Many middle of the road anal cysts don't see a crash either. I found this link (posted by a stoolie before) very helpful http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/barrons/

Crash is too painful anyway. Slow and steady decline into support is what I want for Christmas.

Forget about the crash there is far too much liquidity around. If one is bearish then read Doug Noland and sense where market is heading.