capitall Posted June 17, 2009 Author Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 I am a former builder in northwest Ohio. Housing prices around here have fallen, but only moderately, especially when compared to other areas of the United States. However, housing in this area never experienced the steroid appreciation that places like Kali did, either. New construction here has held up relatively well with old construction experiencing more depreciation. I guess, when considering real estate, the old maxim that location, location, location still holds true. I am not familiar with the Gainesville area, but I doubt you could accurately gauge the state of the local economy from super market sales. Maybe you are right in your assessment, but you may want to pay more attention to shorty's posts, as they suggest otherwise. One of the reasons I got out of building other than to devote more time to trading, was the fact that people seem to want everything for nothing and, lately, that especially holds true for housing. How do you know what that property is really worth? Have they already lowered the listing price? Because the economy is in the tank and it's a "buyer's market," somebody should take a hit or give something away so you can get a deal. Now, forgive me if it sounds like I am venting on you. Maybe the house you were looking at isn't worth your original offer. Recently, I just sold a home, the last one that I built, after sitting on it for more than a year. I gave that house away. I had previous offers and interest from other prospective buyers and it was all the same, gimme, gimme, gimme. Not only did they want the house at deep discount, some wanted all closing costs paid for and other concessions and upgrades. One even wanted an olympic weight bench and some tools that were being stored in the garage thrown in with the deal. They did this because of the belief that all builder's or sellers are desperate and the buyer has them firmly bent over a table with bare ass exposed. I eventually sold the house to a young couple. They got a really good deal. I could of held out longer and maybe got a better price, but, at this point, I just wanted it gone. A builder friend of mine just sold a property that he had been sitting on for nearly two years. He owned it outright, so there was no note running on it, and he is a stubborn mule. He had several ridiculous low-ball offers over the course. One was a written offer. He photocopied his middle finger on it and faxed it back to the realtor. Anyway, eventually he got what he wanted out of it. Me, on the other hand, I just wanted out of the industry, period! I just had to get that off my chest; I feel better now. I love hearing personal experiences like this one, to get an idea of the RE market in various areas. Where I am is a small tourist area and retirement town in Western WA state. We have a frozen market-- neither a buyer's nor a seller's market. Buyers want a discount, as they have less money to spend and can see that the market in most places has declined, but few sellers want to give one, preferring to wait until they can get peak bubble prices again (especially if they bought in at bubbble prices.) They are assuming that that will be possible in the forseeable future. Being a retirement community with few jobs, almost no one HAS TO move into or out of the area for a job. So everyone thinks they can wait-- either to sell or to buy. And the wealthy retireees who used to come from Kali and Arizona a few years ago, having sold a house in one of those places for a fortune and thus having wads of money burning a hole in their pocket, somehow aren't showing up any more. So very little real estate is moving. That is what makes it a frozen market, where you seldom have a buyer and a seller agreeing on a price. RE agents are experiencing the opposite of the boom times. They may or may not show houses to people, but actually closing a sale is almost unheard of, making that RE agent the star of the month and the envy of all their peers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 Listed at 138,000. Made an offer of 132,500, and they countered back 136,500. I'd drop yer offer to 120,000 and give 'em 48 hours take it our leave it, otherwise I think they'll soon hit yer bid fer 132,500 and ya might have buyer's reamorse. If they get pissed off, wait a few months then come back with 110,000. Same thing then, if they don't take it just wait a few months and come back at 99,500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 I love hearing personal experiences like this one, to get an idea of the RE market in various areas. Where I am is a small tourist area and retirement town in Western WA state. We have a frozen market-- neither a buyer's nor a seller's market. Buyers want a discount, as they have less money to spend and can see that the market in most places has declined, but few sellers want to give one, preferring to wait until they can get peak bubble prices again (especially if they bought in at bubbble prices.) They are assuming that that will be possible in the forseeable future. Being a retirement community with few jobs, almost no one HAS TO move into or out of the area for a job. So everyone thinks they can wait-- either to sell or to buy. And the wealthy retireees who used to come from Kali and Arizona a few years ago, having sold a house in one of those places for a fortune and thus having wads of money burning a hole in their pocket, somehow aren't showing up any more. So very little real estate is moving. That is what makes it a frozen market, where you seldom have a buyer and a seller agreeing on a price. RE agents are experiencing the opposite of the boom times. They may or may not show houses to people, but actually closing a sale is almost unheard of, making that RE agent the star of the month and the envy of all their peers. Yes, another example of location, location, location. It is amazing how different areas are effected. I must also add that the real estate agents around here have not cut their commissions, either. I realize their sales are down, but I know most of the builder's in this area and they have had to unload at discounts, with some taking steep losses, especially on the higher end homes, some have even gone bankrupt. I know of instances where a realtor has brought a buyer to a builder with a low-ball offer. After negotiations, the buyer has given a final offer and the builder, wanting to unload, tells the realtor that they can do it at that price only if the agent(s) will sacrifice some of their commissions. Most of the agents are unwilling to do so. The example of the builder I knew in the example above sold his without a realtor, but the buyer had an agent. He thought the agent wanted too much, but ended up paying the commission, anyway. It seems that the agents, at least in this area, are the last to take a pay cut. Around here, a builder usually pays 5% less lot. If the listing agent sells the property, they get the full commission; if the listing agent doesn't sell it to one of their clients but another agent is involved, they have to split the commission. In every sale, the agent(s) also have to give some to their broker. I am not a real big fan of realtors, but a good agent is worth something to a builder and they put up with a lot of sh*t, too. I have dealt both good and bad agents. It is hard and a real pain in the arse to sell a home in this area without listing with an agent. The real parasites are the actual firms or brokers, not necessarily the agents themselves. Basically, all the firms do is list the property in the MLS, that's about it. Now, if you are not a builder but a home owner, you will pay 6-7% of full sale price. A neighbor of mine recently sold a property and ended up paying nearly 17K in commissions. The house was on the market for only 3 weeks and there was no showings, basically meaning the realtor had to do nothing. The seller recently got divorced and needed to sell the property. I think he got screwed by the realtor, but, I guess that is life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 a thing of beauty, and not the only chart of its kind. i admire the roundedness of the feb-march and may-june structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 Adobe Systems said its revenue and profit fell sharply again in the last quarter, as the recession continued to drive down sales, but officials at the San Jose software company said the decline in its North American business appears to have leveled off. "It feels like we've bottomed out, at least in the United States," chief financial officer Mark Garrett told anal cysts on a conference call. Adobe, which makes software for consumers and businesses, said it earned $126.1 million in profit for the quarter that ended May 29, down 41 percent from the same period last year. Revenue was $704.7 million, down 20 percent from last year. Earnings were 24 cents per share, or 35 cents per share after excluding one-time charges. anal cysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had forecast earnings of 35 cents per share, excluding charges, on revenue of $695 million. For the current quarter, Garrett said the company expects an uptick in North American sales, where Adobe traditionally does a little less than half of its business. But he warned that could be offset by seasonal declines in Europe and Asia. source adobe's problem: saturation, which affects many silicon valley companies. Their CS4 product hasn't been a hot seller because it is priced high, doesn't add compelling new features, and designers are complaining that they feel like they are getting used by Adobe. Some of my designer friends have also told me that universally in northern california that their freelance graphic work has completely vanished. Demand is zero. They are thankful they still have their boring corporate jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 We located a few homes, and finally decided to make an offer on one. 3/1 with 1300 heated sqft. Listed at 138,000. Made an offer of 132,500, and they countered back 136,500. Its unreal when you can get a better amount off of a car than a home. The RE market here is unreal. Down close to the University they are getting $1k/mnth for a 1br/1ba. Dude you need better negotiating skills. You didn't start low enough. What price do you want to pay? Bid lower then work your way to the price you want to pay. Right now you are negotiating in the price range the seller wants you to pay. Follow Shorty's advice. Secondly with regards to your grocery example... people still need to eat, so grocery stores will continue to sell. Have you noticed a change in the types of people people are buying? Luxury items? Basics? Did prices in your stores rise last year but not fallen yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 Not sure if you caught this but was listening to the moneyman report yesterday and John Rutledge (http://rutledgecapital.com/) was reporting on Mr. Geithner. Mr. G is so clever: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1500845_pf.html June15_Geithner_1.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 More O's for bears needed: to 900/890 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 I love hearing personal experiences like this one, to get an idea of the RE market in various areas. I've got one. My Dad has been a residential realtor in the same town outside Boston for 30+ years. He's pretty conservative by nature, so no hype & pressure, no subprime McMansions, just years of helping mostly average folks find mostly average houses in the suburbs. He's always worked in the same area, and both buyers & sellers have come back to work with him many times over the years. Last year he made half of what he was making in the late 1970s. In nominal dollars. Not adjusted for inflation. The market's dead. What scraps there are are being picked over by people a generation younger who are much faster with a mouse. Shorty's advice is right on, not good for folks like my Dad but it's the way it is, and he'd be the first to tell you. Incidentally, he asked for my opinion on the market in 2007. I said get ready to sell. He asked his premium borker. Borker said hang onto everything. He hung onto everything and lost the majority of his retirement. Long story short he's asked me to take over primary management of his portfolio. The premium borkerage will have to make do with one less retail patsy. I expect this to be rewarding and humbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 Back from montana..... Glad I went to cash before I left,Market really starting to look like crap. .....Montana is an amazing place,can't wait to go back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 P.S. This particular RE 'item' looks like sh*t. A bounce appears due, but it'd be nice if it were corrective, and failed at the underside of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 Back from montana..... Glad I went to cash before I left,Market really starting to look like crap. .....Montana is an amazing place,can't wait to go back! ah yes, Montana. Maybe you should move there. Start a business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 earnings July 16th, will this gap down to 95 then? or earlier if the quarterly miss is leaked? maybe the accountants can push the pain out another quarter butt they better git busy bribin' and whorin' fer their share o' stimulus dollars hire more coeds and send 'em over ta git them big contracts signed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 California is on the brink. the White House denied CA any financial help. $24 billion needs to be cut, but the process has degenerated into petty politics again. First up, no additional salary cuts for state employees: A new across-the-board pay cut for state workers was rejected Tuesday by the Legislature's joint budget conference committee. The 5 percent salary reduction had been proposed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to save $470 million and preserve cash in the coming fiscal year's general fund budget. The legislative committee rejected the pay cut by a party-line vote, 6-4, with no Republican support. Source People are getting pissed in the comments sections of all the newspapers. State leechers are whining that they are under hardship. Aww. Next, the State Legislature is proposing new taxes, even though we the people here just said no to new taxes. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 Californica public screwel morans! Clerical error adds 34 days to school year (Los Angeles Times) Because of the complexities of state law and a clerical error on a spreadsheet, the district will lose more than $7 million in state funds if classes end before July 31. "We made an error on the minimum days of about five minutes," said Dickson Principal Sue Pederson. "Realistically, that's our accounting mistake as adults. We're unfortunately making the children pay for it by making them give up their summer." An aSSociate stuperintendent at the dictrict, who is retiring this year , has taken responsibility for the errors. HOW? BY GIVING UP THEIR PENSION? CLAW IT BACK! MAYBE 34 DAYS OF ASS-POUNDIN' PRISON! AND/OR A $7 MILLION FINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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