soup Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 can anyone else see that the only way out is a crash or a bigger bubble? Unless they re wrote psyhicsm, there is only one way out. History says ONE WAY . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FauxCaster Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Just need Oracle to reprogram the sunrise routine. Can be done easily. You mean Scott Nealy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 FC: You are assuming folks have any equity left? With the exception of S Cal and perhaps a few others, for most housing prices are well past thei peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Sorry gang, alphie and his merry band of statists have assured the worst depression known to this country. There is no other way out. Smile when you see the children, they are ruined, all so the greatest megalomaniac of all recorded history can try to save his legacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seamus Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Picture of a crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 16, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Well, we are on the cusp of something huge. Â Short 'Em High was here in L.A. last night. Â We went out to Westwood at one of those sheik restaurants to stare at the stick-armed, large breasted WonderChicks which seem to throng around the area. Â We discussed what is called the "Seminal Event". Â The "Seminal Event" is a sudden recognition that something has radically changed. Â At the July 2002 lows, it was HSBC's buyout of HI which proved that the credit card companies were "salvageable" and turned the entire financial complex around. Â There have been many others, which suddenly "woke up" a particular sector out of its bear funk. Â Today's 75 million share move in JNPR was huge. It is not to be taken lightly. This is one of the biggest explosions I've seen out of a sector in a long time. When something like this happens, its usually a sign of a huge move beginning, which takes months to unfold. Â That said, we are a long way away from any kind of a top on the Nasdaq. The only hope the bears have is that the Nasdaq goes completely parabolic from here and flames out quickly. Any orderly advance from here is likely to result in an extended move well past the 2,500 area. Â Another phenomenon discussed was the typical "shakeouts" which happen at the start of a bull move. SEH and I vividly remember the huge launch off the Sept. 11 lows, then the Flextronics warning a few weeks later which sent the Nasdaq crashing, painting a huge bearish engulfing candle. And off the March lows, we had that huge 350 point decline on the Dow after some guys were killed in Iraq, then we had the INTC and TXN warnings later which proved to be a shakeout. Â Last week, we witnessed another "Seminal Event" and yesterday, we might have seen another possible "shakeout" at the beginning of a huge bull move in a sector. The Royal Dutch (RD) announcement last week exploded the OSX to the upward side, possibly a "Seminal Event" for the oil service sector. The OSX ran up on the news. Yesterday, we had a bearish engulfing candle on the crude oil contract, which pushed the OSX down below the breakout area, resulting in a "shakeout". Today, that crude price destruction was Steve McQueened and ended up closing up over $35, completely negating yesterday's negative move. So we must watch the OSX from here on out and see if today was in fact a reversal from a shakeout, at the beginning of a large bull move. The OSX closed green today. Â Just some valuable lessons to be learned from a Green$pammed Crack Market, where Hoods and Bosses will always attempt to confuse all the participants. Â The JNPR breakout is not to be underestimated. It was truly a "Seminal Event" for the communications/telecom chip sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Doc, Hyper, et al. What's the magic number to kick start the next refi binge? Long term average Mortgage rates below 5% 4.5% should have the effect of people with their head underwater gasping for air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Mark: Â Check out the 10-Year whipsaw. Â http://139.142.147.221/StockChart_ImageOnl...=INX&ref_rate=0 Â Intraday: http://139.142.147.26/GifChartEngine.dll?i...4&refreshrate=0 Â Â The way they're bouncing this in a range may very well be the goal the Matrix has in mind for the broader equity markets at this point. Remember that for every action there's a reaction, and the Matrix just needs to keep the plates spinning...without the need to send the equity markets to the moon. It seems to me that the game is to keep the velocity of money high, without necessarily causing a larger bubble. Â I think we're going to see the toughest, most whipsaw-laden trading environment we've ever witnessed, with headlines countering the affects of prior headlines in ever more rapid succession. All of the games have been tested and fine tuned (as witnessed in today's ten-year action), and now with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers under the firm control of the Matrix, the final piece of the puzzle is in place. Â Do as Larry Kudlow says...or else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FauxCaster Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 I wonder what happened to the 36K/yr Belkin subscribers when he called for an all-out crash in Oct 2003 through the end of the year and into 2004? Remember that one? I reread the pdf article last night (from my hard drive). Seemed damn convincing. Why didn't it happen? Where did the liquidity come from? The tape stays well-bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Due to my 3 month countdown (it is actually 5 but lost count along the way) my creditability will be shot...But I see no way how the perpetuation of the debt inflationary self delusional lie of the past 45+ years could make it past late 2005...No matter what is done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Green Light Financial is now running a new ad campaign touting second mortages. To allow you to "fix up the house, pay off bills, or take that vacation you've wanted"... Â Other loan hucksters are coming out of the woodwork again, too. I think another mortgage liquidity injection will be attempted soon. Â My credit card company sent me a letter increasing late fees again. minimum penalties are now $40. Â Circuit City is running a sale on all bigscreens... minimum 1 year no payments no interest on everything over 24". These sales are now common. Some brands are giving two years. miss a payment and the interest rate goes to a minimum 24% or more. Â Â Landlords in silicon valley are now in competition to get/keep tenants. My 185 unit complex is seeing an exodus of people. Just got my rent lowered another $70 for signing a six month lease. the manager said that things are slow once again, and this is with a standard 1 month free sign on bonus. At the end of the lease period the people with no furniture except for a futon, some plants, and a boombox and small TV simply move out and go elsewhere. Multiple units now have four people in them, and only one bedroom. Â Looks like 2004 is going to be a really crazy year. Everything is disconnected from sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShitEatingGrinner Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 whoooo weeeee  this is insane. I look at all these screamers on 5 min charts and see the day trade pattern I used to try to game back in 99-2000. Back in the days when I rode the POS CORL from 7 to 42 and thought I was fvcking Jesse Livermore reincarnated. The gap up...wait 30 minutes...wait til the price gets 5/16 above the high of the first half hour...and jump on the pig. VTSS, SONS, TLAB...etc. They were all doing it. It is now that kind of a market. I didn't jump on today, and I'm not going to. I had the buy order entered and ready to execute, but then I thought...if they've got bearish as shit me ready to go long, they've got every other sucker out there ready to get in or already in. Looks to me like we're getting ready to see a massive blow off on a parabolic curve.  As for refis, the next wave is here. Talking to a few people I know in the business. They are busy as hell... I'm convinced people are now mining every last scrap of equity out of their houses so they can game the stock market. Real estate prices in Dallas and other markets I know of have been stagnant to slightly off for awhile, so the suckers want to get a better return. After watching stocks go straight up for nine months now, they feel foolish for not being "in the game."  I'm sticking with gold stocks/physical. Will be loading up silver over the next two months--with every dime I can get my hands on. Good enough for Buffet Soros Gates, good enough for me. Will be buying the dips on miners over the next month or two...and watching doc's cycles. Doc warned us all about the correction for the last month. The first leg of the gold bull is done. Next will be when gold moves up against all currencies. Could start in 3-6 mos or 3-6 years. I don't give a damn which it is. The dollar is dead. It doesn't know it yet, and neither do the sheep. Hyper is right in that the big boys are going to end up owning all the physical assets. Houses, autos, etc. The end of this mania is going to be so ugly I can't imagine it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Thanks for the seminal event... it's obvious I jumped off LU & JDSU too early... expecting Nasdog & co to give us a Jan shake out... looks like the sign is the first big white candle, jump on it early as the rest of the world will too!!!! no pullbacks to last until the whole game cracks, just update your stop limit orders every night to move them up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 16, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 Green Light Financial is now running a new ad campaign touting second mortages. To allow you to "fix up the house, pay off bills, or take that vacation you've wanted"... There is a new outfit advertising on radio here in L.A. Â Some kind of lender that gives you "cash advances" against lawsuit proceeds if you are currently involved in a "Hail Mary" litigation. Â Basically, they will loan you money, secured by the "pro-forma expected payout" from an ambulance chaser. Â You must be involved in a lawsuit with a big name attorney where a substantial damage award is very likely in order to qualify. Â 1-800-LAW-CASH is their number, I think........ Â No doubt, Wall Struck dealmakers will find a way to securitize this crap...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted January 16, 2004 Report Share Posted January 16, 2004 mdporter, I was wondering what the RE situation is like in Silly Con Valley these days. I would think prices are still high compared to other parts of the country, but how have things changed since early 2000? Do young tech employees tend to rent or buy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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